Antony Little's Blog - Live From Norwich
Ok Anthony, maybe I was optimistic but I ought to win a prize for trying. At the turn of the year I predicted third place for the Lib Dems in Nelson, Wensum and Mancroft. Two out of three isn't bad and there wasn't that many votes between 2nd and 3rd in Nelson. A valiant prediction.However my prediction that the Greens would be the second party within two years still holds - seats in Mancroft, Town Close and probably Sewell next year. If they put in an effort in Thorpe Hamlet it could be more.A very good conservative result in Bowthorpe. Has to be recognised that demographically it is not the Labour heartland it used to be but there is still a sizeable sleeping red vote. The lack of any meaningful advance in Catton Grove increases the likelihood that you will be leading a group of one next year.These are interesting times - will wait to see how the Libs meltdown.
A LibDem melt down in assured.I got the results quite right too - predicting Green gains in three wards (four seats). However I didn't see former LibDem PPC Andrew Aalders Dunthorn's utter and humiliating collapse in Wensum.I'm not sure about this "new" Bowthorpe that so many people talk about. It is North Earlham, Larkman Lane, West Earlham, Clover Hill and Chapel Break - the same ward that saw Labour majorities in the 30-40% bracket (i.e. ultra safe). Only Three Score has areas of what we might call affluent housing. Labour are the only party ever to win in Bowthorpe (before 4 May) remember. It is Labour's heartland!As for next year, the Greens only stand to win Town Close from the LibDems. Not much change really there.Eve will easily hold Catton Grove, and I cannot see the Greens advancing in Sewell - they are focusing only on Norwich South Wards. Thorpe Hamlet continues to be an interesting battle!
Thinking about it you are right. Next year is mainly Labour defending in their marginals - can't see any joy for the Lib Dems and they will lose Town Close. The Libs really can't afford any by-elections and need to keep feeding "ole Vic" his vitamins2008 is meltdown year when they get swept down to 6 seats. It is also the year when Labour might actually get their majority (the maths is right).Sewell: The Greens got nearly 20% without trying - Labour won on 29% of the vote. Bits of it are not so different to the south Norwich seats where they are cleaning up.Personally think the Greens stand a better chance in Thorpe Hamlet than the COnservatives if the Libs wobble. For some reason the blues have never been able to get their act together there.We will see in 12 months
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