Saturday, December 31, 2011

My 12 Predictions for 2012

This time last year I set myself 3 personal goals - to lose weight (achieved, 2½ stone down), fix my teeth (achieved) and get trendy new glasses (failed). I never thought for a moment I'd be a father again, or that my career would be taking off, or that I would be writing for a magazine. Maybe these predictions will be more spot-on:

1. There won't be a General Election, Cameron and Clegg will both be in place but Ed Miliband will either be gone or fatally wounded.

2. Norwich City will stay in the premiership in a mid-table position.

3. The cabinet will lose a number of Secretary of State - Cable, Warsi, Gillan and Huhne will all be gone by next New Years Eve.

4. Online services will lead to a renaissance of hard-copy photographs.

5. The GOP will take control of the Senate but Obama will be back - just - defeating Romney in the Presidential election.

6. The French and German governments will take a hammering at the polls

7. At least 1 country will leave the Euro.

8. The Conservatives will finish the year behind in the opinion polls, but by less than 5%

9. The House of Lords still won't be reformed.

10. Labour will take outright control of the City Council, by virtue of the collapse of the Green vote

11. Norfolk County Council Tories will be bouyed by at least one more defection and/or by-election win

12. The Evening News will be free.

2011 Predictions - in full

Well, here we go again. After writing nothing for months (resolution: pay more attention to things), I thought we'd start again by looking at my wise predictions for the year gone past:

1. A major national shop will unexpectedly open a branch in Norwich.
Right - and wrong. Looking back I couldn't have possible got this oen wrong, but there are a multitude to choose from!

2. City will face a nailbiting effort for promotion via the qualifiers and will ultiamtely win through.
I am very pleased that this was wrong - we got promotion via a slightly more exciting route!

3. The AV referendum will be lost, by 8%
Again, right and wrong. AV was crushed by the British public, but the loss was a massive 2:1 against rather than the 54-46 I predicted!

4. The economy will show strong signs of growth by December
Define "strong". LOL. OK, wrong!

5. Labour will take double digit poll leads during the year but by the end the Tories will be back within striking distance
Again, right and wrong. For most of the year Labour have had substantial leads, including soem in double digits. However, far from being "in striking distance", the Independent newspapers poll-of-polls shows Cameron's Tories back in the lead by 39-38%.

6. Labour will pick up seats in 2011 but not in large numbers and only the kind of wards the Tories were shocked to have won in 2007. No breakthrough.
Again, right and wrong. Labour did well in these elections but at the expense of the LibDems. The Tories ended up being net up seats.

7. Ed Miliband will still not be secure as Labour Leader but all 3 party leaders will show negative poll numbers and Clegg will be in the most serious trouble
Absolutely spot on here I think.

8. Most newspapers online will be behind the paywall
Couldn't be more wrong!

9. The invisible primary in the US will cut the number of realistic GOP hopefuls down to 4 - Huckabee, Palin, Romney and a surprise figure that perhaps we hadn't even considered in 2010.
Ha ha, wrong - Romney's still there but Palin and Huckabee are both out. I guess Cain, Santorum, Perry, Bachmann and Gingrich may count for this last bit!

10. "Skype me" will be the new "Facebook me"
Hmmm ...