Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Believe the trend, not the poll

The now infamous poll which puts Cameron's Conservatives up to 43%, with Brown's Labour down on 28% and Sir Ming's LibDems struggling on 18% has attracted much coverage on the news and the blogs.

This poll, if true and applied on a uniform swing, would deliver Mr Cameron every seat in the East of England with the exception of Colchester. That would include two sensational gains in both Norwich seats.

I have warned the party to keep the champagne on ice over these individual polls. A snapshot of opinion is, well, just that - a snapshot. You need to look for a clear trend of movement and a zone of polling before reading anything into it.

However, having said that Cameron is hitting all of the targets I have been setting myself for excitement.

I just wanted a lead to begin with - he gave me that.

I then wanted a sustained lead over Labour - he gave me that.

I then wanted to hit the 37-39% box - he gave me that.

I then wanted to hit 40% - he gave me that.

I then wanted a double digit lead - he gave me that.

I then wanted the same over Brown - he gave me that.

I then wanted to hit the 42-43% over Brown box - he's now given me that.

I don't want to get excited by polls but the movement and the trend are with Cameron (he has, as I'm sure somebody might say, the big mo'). Each time I set Cameron a higher bar for me to get excited he has jumped over it. I am now, therefore, allowing myself a sly smug grin - but nothing more.

Cameron looks increasingly like the election winning real-deal.

So let me set him the final hurdle. Let's see him get to 45% against Brown sustained over a few months and I'll get excited.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

After the budget Cameron has to pledge make a 20% income tax cut to remain politically competitive in the voters eyes. Next year this will put a lot of money in peoples pockets and encourage growth and saving.

Camerons token domestic air tax proposals (5,000Tpa of carbon)(Green Lobby driven) have fallen on thorny ground and barely denting CO2 emissions, where the major culprits are industry, the energy sector, construction and transport are more targeted via energy conservation/carbon efficiency carbon trading and North Sea carbon capture schemes.

Basically Brown has matched or jumped over Cameron on Green policy and Tax Cutting initiatives in this Budget, which left Cameron crying foul play.

Brown has been listening to practical green solutions such as larger grants on home insultation, fighting for EU VAT reductions 17.5% to 5% on microgeneration such as solar roof panels and wind turbines. Also if one buys a green vehicle such as one running on biofuels, electric or hydrogen fuel is cheaper and tax disc less. The bar has been set and Cameron needs to better these to appeal to voters on economic, tax and spend grounds.

Cameron needs to do more tax and green policy work to jump back in the driving seat. Perhaps settling the inheritence tax threshold up at £1m, or abolishing the tax would be a start, cutting National Insurance Bands and betterment on Brown's stamp study proposals.