Well, the one thing we do know is that George W. Bush isn't going to win today's US election. I've personally had a bit of a strange journey in American politics recently. I was in the USA for the campaign that led to Bush's first election in 2000; although in staunchly Democratic California. I supported Bush then and was pleased to see him elected. Throughout his first term in office I became disillusioned a great deal but never took to Kerry so was begrudgingly satisfied when he won re-election (more so when Bob Worcester made himself look like an idiot on national TV by declaring Kerry to be the winner). And now, well, as regular readers will know I have liked and supported Obama from the start. However as the campaign went on and plans were laid out, I became more and more worried about his plans for a "big government" response to the problems of the USA, and by extension the world. I don't fear a McCain government - not in the way I would fear another Bush term - and that is my problem. I wonder if I would be one of those people who thought I wanted to vote Obama but lose my nerve and vote McCain at the last minute?
For what its worth, my prediction tonight is for an Obama landslide - and I mean landslide. It is testament to McCain, and especially his back story, that despite 8 years of Republican government he remains at the mid 40s in the polls. I believe Obama will win, but the vote margin will be closer than the polls but the ECV margin will be wider.