Read the full post here but I have pulled out some of the key ones I think will prey on the Prime Minister's mind.
Firstly, boundary changes will reduce the Labour majority by 20 seats before a single voter visits the poll. Plus Brown will know that a number - maybe even a large number - of LibDem seats will go to the Tories; this may not impact on his majority but puts Cameron nearer to his tally of MPs.
Secondly, Tory seats, and especially marginal ones, are better funded and have more activists who are willing to work more hours for them than Labour. I still think Team Cameron ought to be looking at Obama's campaign in this respect - we can better in membership, use of the net and mass fundraising - but we still hold a big lead over Labour in all those respects.
Thirdly, tactical voting against the Tories is waining and so is the arguement that "only the LibDems can win here". People don't fear a Cameron government - and linked with reason four, that the arguement for change is winning across the world - and subsequently even where the Tories are third behind the LibDems and Labour, people are still switching the the Conservatives as a positive choice and are not just voting to beat Labour. Trust me, I know!
And fifthly, the next election will be about more than just the economy - Brown must show he has a vision for our public services, the environment and crime, but he can't because he doesn't.
Polls go up and down, the party mustn't fault in our determination to change our country.
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