This time last year I set myself 3 personal goals - to lose weight (achieved, 2½ stone down), fix my teeth (achieved) and get trendy new glasses (failed). I never thought for a moment I'd be a father again, or that my career would be taking off, or that I would be writing for a magazine. Maybe these predictions will be more spot-on:
1. There won't be a General Election, Cameron and Clegg will both be in place but Ed Miliband will either be gone or fatally wounded.
2. Norwich City will stay in the premiership in a mid-table position.
3. The cabinet will lose a number of Secretary of State - Cable, Warsi, Gillan and Huhne will all be gone by next New Years Eve.
4. Online services will lead to a renaissance of hard-copy photographs.
5. The GOP will take control of the Senate but Obama will be back - just - defeating Romney in the Presidential election.
6. The French and German governments will take a hammering at the polls
7. At least 1 country will leave the Euro.
8. The Conservatives will finish the year behind in the opinion polls, but by less than 5%
9. The House of Lords still won't be reformed.
10. Labour will take outright control of the City Council, by virtue of the collapse of the Green vote
11. Norfolk County Council Tories will be bouyed by at least one more defection and/or by-election win
12. The Evening News will be free.
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Saturday, December 31, 2011
2011 Predictions - in full
Well, here we go again. After writing nothing for months (resolution: pay more attention to things), I thought we'd start again by looking at my wise predictions for the year gone past:
1. A major national shop will unexpectedly open a branch in Norwich.
Right - and wrong. Looking back I couldn't have possible got this oen wrong, but there are a multitude to choose from!
2. City will face a nailbiting effort for promotion via the qualifiers and will ultiamtely win through.
I am very pleased that this was wrong - we got promotion via a slightly more exciting route!
3. The AV referendum will be lost, by 8%
Again, right and wrong. AV was crushed by the British public, but the loss was a massive 2:1 against rather than the 54-46 I predicted!
4. The economy will show strong signs of growth by December
Define "strong". LOL. OK, wrong!
5. Labour will take double digit poll leads during the year but by the end the Tories will be back within striking distance
Again, right and wrong. For most of the year Labour have had substantial leads, including soem in double digits. However, far from being "in striking distance", the Independent newspapers poll-of-polls shows Cameron's Tories back in the lead by 39-38%.
6. Labour will pick up seats in 2011 but not in large numbers and only the kind of wards the Tories were shocked to have won in 2007. No breakthrough.
Again, right and wrong. Labour did well in these elections but at the expense of the LibDems. The Tories ended up being net up seats.
7. Ed Miliband will still not be secure as Labour Leader but all 3 party leaders will show negative poll numbers and Clegg will be in the most serious trouble
Absolutely spot on here I think.
8. Most newspapers online will be behind the paywall
Couldn't be more wrong!
9. The invisible primary in the US will cut the number of realistic GOP hopefuls down to 4 - Huckabee, Palin, Romney and a surprise figure that perhaps we hadn't even considered in 2010.
Ha ha, wrong - Romney's still there but Palin and Huckabee are both out. I guess Cain, Santorum, Perry, Bachmann and Gingrich may count for this last bit!
10. "Skype me" will be the new "Facebook me"
Hmmm ...
1. A major national shop will unexpectedly open a branch in Norwich.
Right - and wrong. Looking back I couldn't have possible got this oen wrong, but there are a multitude to choose from!
2. City will face a nailbiting effort for promotion via the qualifiers and will ultiamtely win through.
I am very pleased that this was wrong - we got promotion via a slightly more exciting route!
3. The AV referendum will be lost, by 8%
Again, right and wrong. AV was crushed by the British public, but the loss was a massive 2:1 against rather than the 54-46 I predicted!
4. The economy will show strong signs of growth by December
Define "strong". LOL. OK, wrong!
5. Labour will take double digit poll leads during the year but by the end the Tories will be back within striking distance
Again, right and wrong. For most of the year Labour have had substantial leads, including soem in double digits. However, far from being "in striking distance", the Independent newspapers poll-of-polls shows Cameron's Tories back in the lead by 39-38%.
6. Labour will pick up seats in 2011 but not in large numbers and only the kind of wards the Tories were shocked to have won in 2007. No breakthrough.
Again, right and wrong. Labour did well in these elections but at the expense of the LibDems. The Tories ended up being net up seats.
7. Ed Miliband will still not be secure as Labour Leader but all 3 party leaders will show negative poll numbers and Clegg will be in the most serious trouble
Absolutely spot on here I think.
8. Most newspapers online will be behind the paywall
Couldn't be more wrong!
9. The invisible primary in the US will cut the number of realistic GOP hopefuls down to 4 - Huckabee, Palin, Romney and a surprise figure that perhaps we hadn't even considered in 2010.
Ha ha, wrong - Romney's still there but Palin and Huckabee are both out. I guess Cain, Santorum, Perry, Bachmann and Gingrich may count for this last bit!
10. "Skype me" will be the new "Facebook me"
Hmmm ...
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Looking Forward to 2011
Well, nobody can say that 2011 wasn't an exciting rollercoaster of a year. And we are looking forward to even more next year. The election campaign feels like it was either yesterday or years ago now. And six months on from losing my seat, I can hardly remember working on the council. The kids are growing up, far too fast, and I am really enjoying being a full time teacher again.
So, a few predictions for this year:
1. A major national shop will unexpectedly open a branch in Norwich.
2. City will face a nailbiting effort for promotion via the qualifiers and will ultiamtely win through.
3. The AV referendum will be lost, by 8%
4. The economy will show strong signs of growth by December
5. Labour will take double digit poll leads during the year but by the end the Tories will be back within striking distance
6. Labour will pick up seats in 2011 but not in large numbers and only the kind of wards the Tories were shocked to have won in 2007. No breakthrough.
7. Ed Miliband will still no be secure as Labour Leader but all 3 party leaders will show negative poll numbers and Clegg will be in the most serious trouble
8. Most newspapers online will be behind the paywall
9. The invisible primary in the US will cut the number of realistic GOP hopefuls down to 4 - Huckabee, Palin, Romney and a surprise figure that perhaps we hadn't even considered in 2010.
10. "Skype me" will be the new "Facebook me"
Happy New Year Everybody!
So, a few predictions for this year:
1. A major national shop will unexpectedly open a branch in Norwich.
2. City will face a nailbiting effort for promotion via the qualifiers and will ultiamtely win through.
3. The AV referendum will be lost, by 8%
4. The economy will show strong signs of growth by December
5. Labour will take double digit poll leads during the year but by the end the Tories will be back within striking distance
6. Labour will pick up seats in 2011 but not in large numbers and only the kind of wards the Tories were shocked to have won in 2007. No breakthrough.
7. Ed Miliband will still no be secure as Labour Leader but all 3 party leaders will show negative poll numbers and Clegg will be in the most serious trouble
8. Most newspapers online will be behind the paywall
9. The invisible primary in the US will cut the number of realistic GOP hopefuls down to 4 - Huckabee, Palin, Romney and a surprise figure that perhaps we hadn't even considered in 2010.
10. "Skype me" will be the new "Facebook me"
Happy New Year Everybody!
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Predictions for 2010: How Did I Do?
Making bold predictions for the year ahead is always a risky thing to do; but a good laugh to look back on what you thought might be the case. So here are mine taken from the dying days of 2009 ...
1. Norwich City will be promoted to the Championship, and it will be through one of the automatic places - Spot on; full marks with this one.
2. David Cameron will be Prime Minister with an overall Conservative majority and will do so with a swing and a parliamentary result that defies all predictions and re-ignites the debate over voting reform. His new cabinet will look strikingly like his Shadow Cabinet; Gove, Fox, Lansley, Osbourne, Grayling and Hague will all keep their positions in government. The bigger shake-up will be at the middle and junior ranks. Chloe Smith will become a government minister. Well, a more mixed bag here; what a laugh! Cameron is indeed PM and there is indeed a debate over the voting system but without the use of an overall majority. I felt we'd win by around 20 on 36-37% and this ignite the demand for reform. Now we have a coalition and an AV referendum. The cabinet does look similar and everybody except Grayling have taken their Shadow Portfolio into government. I said Smith would be a Minister - and she's a whip. Overall not bad going.
3. Gordon Brown will not be Leader of the Opposition come next New Years Eve; he will quit in the hours that follow the General Election and in the next few weeks he will also stand down as an MP prompting the first by-election of the new parliament. David Milliband, Alan Johnson and Harriet Harman will be the candidates for the new Leader; Cruddas will be out of parliament and Jack Straw will not win enough support. Harman will win. Brown did quit, though days rather than hours after the polls but this is because of the bizarre coalition negotiations! I was wrong that he'd quit as an MP but he has been widely slammed for lack of attention to that job. I'm still not convinced he'll be there come the eve of the 2015 election. The first by-election was caused in Oldham by a pretty ancient ruling from an election court. On the Labour Leadership, like most others I guess, I never saw Red Ed as even a challenger. Straw didn't stand (neither did Harman or Johnson). Not very good there, Little!
4. Nick Clegg will, despite a poor overall result (the LibDems will lose seats), cling on as LibDem Leader pointing to some spectacular gains from Labour as his defining moment. Their gains will not include any in Norfolk or Suffolk. Almost correct; with one minor slip! Clegg did get a poor result and they did lose seats. He is still leader and their most spectacular gains (like Redcar and Burnley) were from Labour. There was, of course, one gain in Norfolk and Suffolk ...
5. The overwhelming majority of newspaper websites will be "pay-to-view" by the end of the year. Again, I was a bit early with this one - the Murdoch empire (which which I am not at war with) are switching other with more to follow. I think this may be proved to be correct come 2011.
6. The Queen will still be monarch with no signs of being otherwise, but Prince Charles will prompt a political controversy with the new government. The Queen is still there, Charles has kept silent on the government and I missed the tiny issue of a royal engagement.
7. Local Government Reorganisation in Norfolk will come to nothing, but nobody will take any political responsibility despite the massive cost involved. Spot on in all respects, but I never predicted it would by the High Court that did the deed, or the by-elections that would follow.
8. Diplomas will stay despite the new government's radical education policy. Correct! Gove has proved to be a radical Education Secretary so far and Diploma's are still with us.
9. Matt Smith will prove a more popular Doctor Who than David Tennant, to the surprise of pretty much everybody. This may depend on who you ask but I think this is correct!
10. The new MP for Norwich South will be ... that chap, oooohhhh, whats-his-name, thingey ... ;-)
I will have think long and hard about my 2011 predictions; but the one that got away is the most interesting. On my planned blog post instead of the one about Doctor Who I had included Steve Morphew to have quit as Labour Leader at City Council ... which would have both been correct and made me look like Mystic Meg!
2. David Cameron will be Prime Minister with an overall Conservative majority and will do so with a swing and a parliamentary result that defies all predictions and re-ignites the debate over voting reform. His new cabinet will look strikingly like his Shadow Cabinet; Gove, Fox, Lansley, Osbourne, Grayling and Hague will all keep their positions in government. The bigger shake-up will be at the middle and junior ranks. Chloe Smith will become a government minister. Well, a more mixed bag here; what a laugh! Cameron is indeed PM and there is indeed a debate over the voting system but without the use of an overall majority. I felt we'd win by around 20 on 36-37% and this ignite the demand for reform. Now we have a coalition and an AV referendum. The cabinet does look similar and everybody except Grayling have taken their Shadow Portfolio into government. I said Smith would be a Minister - and she's a whip. Overall not bad going.
3. Gordon Brown will not be Leader of the Opposition come next New Years Eve; he will quit in the hours that follow the General Election and in the next few weeks he will also stand down as an MP prompting the first by-election of the new parliament. David Milliband, Alan Johnson and Harriet Harman will be the candidates for the new Leader; Cruddas will be out of parliament and Jack Straw will not win enough support. Harman will win. Brown did quit, though days rather than hours after the polls but this is because of the bizarre coalition negotiations! I was wrong that he'd quit as an MP but he has been widely slammed for lack of attention to that job. I'm still not convinced he'll be there come the eve of the 2015 election. The first by-election was caused in Oldham by a pretty ancient ruling from an election court. On the Labour Leadership, like most others I guess, I never saw Red Ed as even a challenger. Straw didn't stand (neither did Harman or Johnson). Not very good there, Little!
4. Nick Clegg will, despite a poor overall result (the LibDems will lose seats), cling on as LibDem Leader pointing to some spectacular gains from Labour as his defining moment. Their gains will not include any in Norfolk or Suffolk. Almost correct; with one minor slip! Clegg did get a poor result and they did lose seats. He is still leader and their most spectacular gains (like Redcar and Burnley) were from Labour. There was, of course, one gain in Norfolk and Suffolk ...
5. The overwhelming majority of newspaper websites will be "pay-to-view" by the end of the year. Again, I was a bit early with this one - the Murdoch empire (which which I am not at war with) are switching other with more to follow. I think this may be proved to be correct come 2011.
6. The Queen will still be monarch with no signs of being otherwise, but Prince Charles will prompt a political controversy with the new government. The Queen is still there, Charles has kept silent on the government and I missed the tiny issue of a royal engagement.
7. Local Government Reorganisation in Norfolk will come to nothing, but nobody will take any political responsibility despite the massive cost involved. Spot on in all respects, but I never predicted it would by the High Court that did the deed, or the by-elections that would follow.
8. Diplomas will stay despite the new government's radical education policy. Correct! Gove has proved to be a radical Education Secretary so far and Diploma's are still with us.
9. Matt Smith will prove a more popular Doctor Who than David Tennant, to the surprise of pretty much everybody. This may depend on who you ask but I think this is correct!
10. The new MP for Norwich South will be ... that chap, oooohhhh, whats-his-name, thingey ... ;-)
I will have think long and hard about my 2011 predictions; but the one that got away is the most interesting. On my planned blog post instead of the one about Doctor Who I had included Steve Morphew to have quit as Labour Leader at City Council ... which would have both been correct and made me look like Mystic Meg!
Thursday, December 31, 2009
10 for 10: Predictions for the New Year
Happy New Year to everyone and I hope the next year brings about much joy and success. As is the want of bloggers, my 10 predictions for the first year of the new decade:
1. Norwich City will be promoted to the Championship, and it will be through one of the automatic places
2. David Cameron will be Prime Minister with an overall Conservative majority and will do so with a swing and a parliamentary result that defies all predictions and re-ignites the debate over voting reform. His new cabinet will look strikingly like his Shadow Cabinet; Gove, Fox, Lansley, Osbourne, Grayling and Hague will all keep their positions in government. The bigger shake-up will be at the middle and junior ranks. Chloe Smith will become a government minister.
3. Gordon Brown will not be Leader of the Opposition come next New Years Eve; he will quit in the hours that follow the General Election and in the next few weeks he will also stand down as an MP prompting the first by-election of the new parliament. David Milliband, Alan Johnson and Harriet Harman will be the candidates for the new Leader; Cruddas will be out of parliament and Jack Straw will not win enough support. Harman will win.
4. Nick Clegg will, despite a poor overall result (the LibDems will lose seats), cling on as LibDem Leader pointing to some spectacular gains from Labour as his defining moment. Their gains will not include any in Norfolk or Suffolk.
5. The overwhelming majority of newspaper websites will be "pay-to-view" by the end of the year.
6. The Queen will still be monarch with no signs of being otherwise, but Prince Charles will prompt a political controversy with the new government.
7. Local Government Reorganisation in Norfolk will come to nothing, but nobody will take any political responsibility despite the massive cost involved.
8. Diplomas will stay despite the new government's radical education policy.
9. Matt Smith will prove a more popular Doctor Who than David Tennant, to the surprise of pretty much everybody.
10. The new MP for Norwich South will be ...
1. Norwich City will be promoted to the Championship, and it will be through one of the automatic places
2. David Cameron will be Prime Minister with an overall Conservative majority and will do so with a swing and a parliamentary result that defies all predictions and re-ignites the debate over voting reform. His new cabinet will look strikingly like his Shadow Cabinet; Gove, Fox, Lansley, Osbourne, Grayling and Hague will all keep their positions in government. The bigger shake-up will be at the middle and junior ranks. Chloe Smith will become a government minister.
3. Gordon Brown will not be Leader of the Opposition come next New Years Eve; he will quit in the hours that follow the General Election and in the next few weeks he will also stand down as an MP prompting the first by-election of the new parliament. David Milliband, Alan Johnson and Harriet Harman will be the candidates for the new Leader; Cruddas will be out of parliament and Jack Straw will not win enough support. Harman will win.
4. Nick Clegg will, despite a poor overall result (the LibDems will lose seats), cling on as LibDem Leader pointing to some spectacular gains from Labour as his defining moment. Their gains will not include any in Norfolk or Suffolk.
5. The overwhelming majority of newspaper websites will be "pay-to-view" by the end of the year.
6. The Queen will still be monarch with no signs of being otherwise, but Prince Charles will prompt a political controversy with the new government.
7. Local Government Reorganisation in Norfolk will come to nothing, but nobody will take any political responsibility despite the massive cost involved.
8. Diplomas will stay despite the new government's radical education policy.
9. Matt Smith will prove a more popular Doctor Who than David Tennant, to the surprise of pretty much everybody.
10. The new MP for Norwich South will be ...
Monday, June 01, 2009
"Compass" calls Norfolk for the Conservatives - with an increased majority - and a near wipeout for Labour
An old colleague of mine - who has decided to call themself "Compass" - has been writing election predictions for my blog for the last 3 years with unnvering accuracy. Despite moving out of the City, to native South Norfolk, "Compass" has penned some predictions for the Norfolk county results. To be honest, there are some I don't agree with and how "Compass" knows about the politics of some of these areas is beyond me, but the form suggests we ought to listen up.
So, "Compass" says ...
... Conservatives to hold Norfolk with an overall majority of 20 ...
... Labour facing near wipeout, fighting it out with the Greens for third place ...
... LibDems a clear second including some impressive gains in North Norfolk & Broadland ...
... Greens to do well in the City ...
Compass says 52 seats for the Tories, 18 for the LibDems, 8 for Labour and 6 for the Greens.
I may have time to publish some of the juicy descriptions later, but some of the seats changing hands are surprising and we aren't talking about simply applying a uniform swing here.
So, "Compass" says ...
... Conservatives to hold Norfolk with an overall majority of 20 ...
... Labour facing near wipeout, fighting it out with the Greens for third place ...
... LibDems a clear second including some impressive gains in North Norfolk & Broadland ...
... Greens to do well in the City ...
Compass says 52 seats for the Tories, 18 for the LibDems, 8 for Labour and 6 for the Greens.
I may have time to publish some of the juicy descriptions later, but some of the seats changing hands are surprising and we aren't talking about simply applying a uniform swing here.
Sunday, May 17, 2009
The Predictions Start Here ...
Is this a cop-out post? I don't know, but after a week of solid campaigning around the City I feel in a better position to start the prediction ball rolling with regards to the county elections at least. The anti-politican feeling is strong; but I think that local politicans are exempt from the feeling - firstly people feel a bit sorry for us doing this against the backdrop of the fiddles from parliamentarians, and secondly the nominations have closed and county elections tend to only have mainstream candidates so there isn't really a protest vote available. I do, though, fear for turnout.
If you want to post and share campaigning stories and predictions please feel free!!!
If you want to post and share campaigning stories and predictions please feel free!!!
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Who has most to worry about from the 09 County elections?
A prolific reader of my blog, Comrade, left a short but interesting comment on my last post. He, once a Labour councillor left to join the LibDems, urged us to "bring on" the county elections. It made me think about who had most to gain, or lose, from that poll.
First thing to note is that it is not likely to be on the same day as a General Election and thus a much lower turnout may hit some majorities that were previously very high. And also being on the same day as the Euro elections may bring the right-wing vote out in much greater force. However, the statistics show some worries for all the parties.
In terms of marginal seats (those with a majority of less than 5%), the Tories hold 8 (out of 46), Labour have 5 (out of 22) and the LibDems have 6 (out of 14) - hence nearly half of the LibDem county group are vulnerable on quite small swings. Melton Constable has a LibDem majority of 0.02% (yes, a single vote) and the Tories in North Norfolk will be gunning for electoral revenge there. Kings Lynn South is held by the LibDems by 0.3% and East Depwade by 0.4% - both in areas with big swings back to the Tories in recent years. Clavering had a LibDem majority of 3% but the Tories won that back in a by-election last year so it may be difficult to hold. I would imagine at this stage that all four seats would be very difficult for them to hold. The LibDems also have a 0.6% majority in Aylsham (but a much better majority at the recent by-election) and a 2% lead in Cromer and both would be vulnerable to a Cameron surge. If the Tories do very well on polling day then Reepham (LibDem maj 7%) could also be at risk. Other LibDem seats should fare better - despite a fairly low 9% majority in Fakenham, the party are odds on to hold it. Their 22% majority in Eaton will look more vulnerable given the strides made by the Tories at City level, and a similar 22% majority in Thorpe Hamlet - their second safest seat - is under threat from the rampant Norwich Green Party who took the identical ward by 501 votes at City level.
Labour's urban outposts in Norfolk will face the test of a resurgant Tory Party next year as well. Great Yarmouth will see some pretty close fights - the semi-rural Lothingland Division has a Labour majority of just 0.5% for example. Thetford East (Labour maj 0.7%), Dereham South (Labour maj 3%), Caister (Labour maj 5%) and Gaywood North & Central (Labour maj 3%) would all become Tory seats based upon district results, let alone the opinion polls. And the news becomes worse for Labour - their 6% majority in Sprowston and 8% lead in Gaywood South (Kings Lynn) would currently both be wiped out. Breydon in Great Yarmouth had a Labour lead of 15% in 2005 and will certainly be top of the Great Yarmouth Tories hitlist, especially if Brandon Lewis is to be their next MP. It may even get worse than that, because a lot of very, very safe Labour seats in Norwich will also come into play on a low turnout. A 25% lead in Bowthorpe and a 22% lead in Catton Grove may also disappear if recent City elections are repeated and gains could be made by the Tories. Labour also hold seats in Lakenham, Mancroft and Wensum where the LibDems and Greens have since made City gains. Labour's county group could easily be reduced from 22 to 15 on a small swing back to the Tories and down to 10 if things go badly in Norwich.
The Greens, of course, start from a low base and should gain seats from Labour this time around. Town Close, despite the by-election win, won't be a guaranteed hold but Nelson should be pretty safe territory for them.
The Tories have most at risk, having most seats and an overall majority on the council - it would take just the loss of 4 seats for our overall majority to go. The LibDems will be looking no doubt at Long Stratton (Con maj 2%) and Diss (Con maj 4%) but given the massive Tory strides in South Norfolk, neither look vulnerable at the moment. They may rather fancy their chances in North Norfolk wheer the Tories currently lead by 4% in both Wells and Mundesley. On the outside, the LibDems may also choose to mount a strong challenge in Hellesdon (Con maj 8%) and Hoveton (Con maj 7%) but at the moment both look beyond their reach. Labour really have very few opportunities to make gains from the Tories - even a 0.7% Tory majority in the Broadland seat of Woodside looks a bit far fetched. Gorleston (Con maj 3%), Acle (Con maj 10%) and Old Catton (Con maj 7%) may all get Labour going but I don't think they stand a chance in those wards either.
So who are the likely winners and losers from this? The Tories look pretty secure and have plenty of chances to gains seats from both Labour and the LibDems. Few Tory Councillors will even be challenged by Labour, although a coupel of seats may have strong LibDem campaigns. I suspect we'll talking about the size of the Tory majority rather than if there will be one! The Labour Party pretty much face meltdown and their urban bases look set to fall; facing a Tory onslaught in GY, KL and Norwich (plus the Greens in Norwich too) they could be squeezed from all sides and could fall to third. The party with the biggest risk is the LibDems; on a good day they could hold seats and make a few gains, but they haven't had many good days recently. With the Greens stealing their clothes in Norwich and the rampant Tories in the county they could as easily be fighting the Greens for third place on county and they could fighting Labour for second. At the moment, I wouldn't want to be a LibDem strategist - over-stretch could cost them seats.
So that's it as I see it at the moment; things could change (and do) in politics) but I have tried to be honest. I'll let you guess the seats, but currently I think we'll see 54 Conservatives, 14 LibDems, 11 Labour and 5 Greens - an overall majority of 24 for the Tories.
The Tories have this election to win, Labour have it to lose ... but its the LibDems who should most fear the ballot box at the moment!
First thing to note is that it is not likely to be on the same day as a General Election and thus a much lower turnout may hit some majorities that were previously very high. And also being on the same day as the Euro elections may bring the right-wing vote out in much greater force. However, the statistics show some worries for all the parties.
In terms of marginal seats (those with a majority of less than 5%), the Tories hold 8 (out of 46), Labour have 5 (out of 22) and the LibDems have 6 (out of 14) - hence nearly half of the LibDem county group are vulnerable on quite small swings. Melton Constable has a LibDem majority of 0.02% (yes, a single vote) and the Tories in North Norfolk will be gunning for electoral revenge there. Kings Lynn South is held by the LibDems by 0.3% and East Depwade by 0.4% - both in areas with big swings back to the Tories in recent years. Clavering had a LibDem majority of 3% but the Tories won that back in a by-election last year so it may be difficult to hold. I would imagine at this stage that all four seats would be very difficult for them to hold. The LibDems also have a 0.6% majority in Aylsham (but a much better majority at the recent by-election) and a 2% lead in Cromer and both would be vulnerable to a Cameron surge. If the Tories do very well on polling day then Reepham (LibDem maj 7%) could also be at risk. Other LibDem seats should fare better - despite a fairly low 9% majority in Fakenham, the party are odds on to hold it. Their 22% majority in Eaton will look more vulnerable given the strides made by the Tories at City level, and a similar 22% majority in Thorpe Hamlet - their second safest seat - is under threat from the rampant Norwich Green Party who took the identical ward by 501 votes at City level.
Labour's urban outposts in Norfolk will face the test of a resurgant Tory Party next year as well. Great Yarmouth will see some pretty close fights - the semi-rural Lothingland Division has a Labour majority of just 0.5% for example. Thetford East (Labour maj 0.7%), Dereham South (Labour maj 3%), Caister (Labour maj 5%) and Gaywood North & Central (Labour maj 3%) would all become Tory seats based upon district results, let alone the opinion polls. And the news becomes worse for Labour - their 6% majority in Sprowston and 8% lead in Gaywood South (Kings Lynn) would currently both be wiped out. Breydon in Great Yarmouth had a Labour lead of 15% in 2005 and will certainly be top of the Great Yarmouth Tories hitlist, especially if Brandon Lewis is to be their next MP. It may even get worse than that, because a lot of very, very safe Labour seats in Norwich will also come into play on a low turnout. A 25% lead in Bowthorpe and a 22% lead in Catton Grove may also disappear if recent City elections are repeated and gains could be made by the Tories. Labour also hold seats in Lakenham, Mancroft and Wensum where the LibDems and Greens have since made City gains. Labour's county group could easily be reduced from 22 to 15 on a small swing back to the Tories and down to 10 if things go badly in Norwich.
The Greens, of course, start from a low base and should gain seats from Labour this time around. Town Close, despite the by-election win, won't be a guaranteed hold but Nelson should be pretty safe territory for them.
The Tories have most at risk, having most seats and an overall majority on the council - it would take just the loss of 4 seats for our overall majority to go. The LibDems will be looking no doubt at Long Stratton (Con maj 2%) and Diss (Con maj 4%) but given the massive Tory strides in South Norfolk, neither look vulnerable at the moment. They may rather fancy their chances in North Norfolk wheer the Tories currently lead by 4% in both Wells and Mundesley. On the outside, the LibDems may also choose to mount a strong challenge in Hellesdon (Con maj 8%) and Hoveton (Con maj 7%) but at the moment both look beyond their reach. Labour really have very few opportunities to make gains from the Tories - even a 0.7% Tory majority in the Broadland seat of Woodside looks a bit far fetched. Gorleston (Con maj 3%), Acle (Con maj 10%) and Old Catton (Con maj 7%) may all get Labour going but I don't think they stand a chance in those wards either.
So who are the likely winners and losers from this? The Tories look pretty secure and have plenty of chances to gains seats from both Labour and the LibDems. Few Tory Councillors will even be challenged by Labour, although a coupel of seats may have strong LibDem campaigns. I suspect we'll talking about the size of the Tory majority rather than if there will be one! The Labour Party pretty much face meltdown and their urban bases look set to fall; facing a Tory onslaught in GY, KL and Norwich (plus the Greens in Norwich too) they could be squeezed from all sides and could fall to third. The party with the biggest risk is the LibDems; on a good day they could hold seats and make a few gains, but they haven't had many good days recently. With the Greens stealing their clothes in Norwich and the rampant Tories in the county they could as easily be fighting the Greens for third place on county and they could fighting Labour for second. At the moment, I wouldn't want to be a LibDem strategist - over-stretch could cost them seats.
So that's it as I see it at the moment; things could change (and do) in politics) but I have tried to be honest. I'll let you guess the seats, but currently I think we'll see 54 Conservatives, 14 LibDems, 11 Labour and 5 Greens - an overall majority of 24 for the Tories.
The Tories have this election to win, Labour have it to lose ... but its the LibDems who should most fear the ballot box at the moment!
Saturday, April 05, 2008
UPDATED: City Elections: Nominations revealed
Yesterday was the last day to get your nomination paper in for the City elections. You can get a full run down here but I thought I'd just summerise the situation. The main 4 parties are contesting every seat - Conservative, Labour, Green and LibDems - plus there's UKIP in Lakenham and Norwich-over-the-Water in Sewell.
In terms of interesting candidates;
For the LibDems its all change; the talented Gordon Dean is relgated to an absolute thrashing in Catton Grove, whilst his former Councillor Colleague Chris Thomas takes on Mile Cross - the LibDems say this indicates how seriously they are taking the ward, but I didn't know Chris was that keen on getting back on the council. Nelson stalwart David Fairbairn now ends up defending Hereward's old patch in Lakenham, whilst Judith Lubbock takes on Eaton. Interestingly former Heathersett Councillor Jackie Sutton - who lost her seat in the South Norfolk Tory landslide of 07 - reappears as candidate for ultra-marginal Thorpe Hamlet. Lastly I suppose is the decision of another former Councillor, Ian Williams, to take on Sewell. The NOTWP candidate will I'm sure shake this seat up and any party who effectivly harnesses the anti-Labour vote may do well. Williams has been, in his (and my) time, a formiddable candidate and this could now be the ward to watch.
Labour have had an easier time of candidate selection. Their sitting Councillors have a tough time - Mick Banham in Sewell, Brenda Ferris in Bowthorpe and Julie Westmacott in Catton Grove all have the fights of their lives. Deborah Gilwahi (Mile Cross), Brenda Arthur (University) and Bob Sanderson (Lakenham) all hope to step into LibDem shoes and the hopes of the party will essentially rest upon their shoulders. Dvaid Bradford, a real champion, stands again for Crome. The most interesting candidate in many ways is Steph Clark - standing in Wensum - incidentally standing against a LibDem called Brian Clark. Labour feel they have a real chance here and have certainly done a lot of work. And, of course, we have to mention the gallant Phil Taylor who is leading the Labour chances in Eaton.
The Greens have a full slate again; one switch is being made with Adrian Holmes leaving Wensum and seeking election in Mancroft leaving his old ward to UEA student Ruth Makoff. There are also some relationship candidates this time. Adrian Ramsay's girlfriend is their candidate in Bowthorpe and Janet Bearman's husband is standing in Eaton. Stop-the-War campaigner Peter Offord leads their charge in ultra-marginal Thorpe Hamlet. In Town Close the unknown Samir Jeraj is standing (more of this later).
Please feel free to post your predictions
In terms of interesting candidates;
For the LibDems its all change; the talented Gordon Dean is relgated to an absolute thrashing in Catton Grove, whilst his former Councillor Colleague Chris Thomas takes on Mile Cross - the LibDems say this indicates how seriously they are taking the ward, but I didn't know Chris was that keen on getting back on the council. Nelson stalwart David Fairbairn now ends up defending Hereward's old patch in Lakenham, whilst Judith Lubbock takes on Eaton. Interestingly former Heathersett Councillor Jackie Sutton - who lost her seat in the South Norfolk Tory landslide of 07 - reappears as candidate for ultra-marginal Thorpe Hamlet. Lastly I suppose is the decision of another former Councillor, Ian Williams, to take on Sewell. The NOTWP candidate will I'm sure shake this seat up and any party who effectivly harnesses the anti-Labour vote may do well. Williams has been, in his (and my) time, a formiddable candidate and this could now be the ward to watch.
Labour have had an easier time of candidate selection. Their sitting Councillors have a tough time - Mick Banham in Sewell, Brenda Ferris in Bowthorpe and Julie Westmacott in Catton Grove all have the fights of their lives. Deborah Gilwahi (Mile Cross), Brenda Arthur (University) and Bob Sanderson (Lakenham) all hope to step into LibDem shoes and the hopes of the party will essentially rest upon their shoulders. Dvaid Bradford, a real champion, stands again for Crome. The most interesting candidate in many ways is Steph Clark - standing in Wensum - incidentally standing against a LibDem called Brian Clark. Labour feel they have a real chance here and have certainly done a lot of work. And, of course, we have to mention the gallant Phil Taylor who is leading the Labour chances in Eaton.
The Greens have a full slate again; one switch is being made with Adrian Holmes leaving Wensum and seeking election in Mancroft leaving his old ward to UEA student Ruth Makoff. There are also some relationship candidates this time. Adrian Ramsay's girlfriend is their candidate in Bowthorpe and Janet Bearman's husband is standing in Eaton. Stop-the-War campaigner Peter Offord leads their charge in ultra-marginal Thorpe Hamlet. In Town Close the unknown Samir Jeraj is standing (more of this later).
Please feel free to post your predictions
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
Political Forecaster of 2007: Bronze medal
With being away for the New Year celebrations I totally missed the news, helpfully e-mailed to me by friends, that I came third in the PoliticalBetting.Com Forecaster Competition 2007 beating off some very serious political commentators. I am surprised I did so well as, although my local predictions are normally spot-on, my national ones tend to be less so.
It should be noted that I didn't do fantastically well on all sections of the competition - I said Sir Ming would be ousted but I said he's be replaced by Huhne - but where I seriously made up ground was in predicting the 2007 local election results as I seem to have forecasted the collapse of the LibDems and Labour quite well. Similarly I picked up points for the levels of Tory support in the polls.
Sometimes when you are close to politics you can't see the woods for the trees and your support for your party blinds your decision making. It was noticeable that the staunch LibDems lost most points because they predicted their party would do well when they didn't! It is nice to know that as pro-Conservative as I am, I can still make good political predictions.
It should be noted that I didn't do fantastically well on all sections of the competition - I said Sir Ming would be ousted but I said he's be replaced by Huhne - but where I seriously made up ground was in predicting the 2007 local election results as I seem to have forecasted the collapse of the LibDems and Labour quite well. Similarly I picked up points for the levels of Tory support in the polls.
Sometimes when you are close to politics you can't see the woods for the trees and your support for your party blinds your decision making. It was noticeable that the staunch LibDems lost most points because they predicted their party would do well when they didn't! It is nice to know that as pro-Conservative as I am, I can still make good political predictions.
Monday, January 01, 2007
My Predictions for 2007
Wales: Labour will lose their majority in the Welsh assembly with the Tories becoming the second party winning some surprising seats. At this high Nick Bourne will resign and the party will elect a younger, more Cameronesque leader.
Scotland: Labour will face a difficult election but will remain the large party in the parliament. Other parties will attempt to form a coalition but will fail, leading to a fragile Labour / LibDem administration limping on.
Labour Leadership: John Hutton will be the only candidate to take on Gordon Brown for the top job, with the election coming in June or July. Brown will win by a decent margin and Hutton will then refuse to serve in a Brown-led cabinet. Despite a big bounce in the polls, Labour's finances mean that Brown cannot go for a snap poll.
The cabinet: At least seven current ministers will go - (obviously Blair and Prescott) but I think Armstrong, Straw, Smith, Beckett, Hutton, Jowell and Falconer as well. How about this - Brown is elected Leader and Hilary Benn his Deputy. In a move that angers a lot of people (and the Daily Mail), he appoints fellow Scot Alistair Darling as the new Chancellor. John Reid takes a lower profile role as Leader of the House, which allows Alan Johnson to be the new Home Secretary as a reward for not taking on Gordon. Ruth Kelly is shifted over to somethin like International Development as she is given more time to defend her marginal parliamentary seat. David Milliband will be given a promotion to a major spending department like Education. Hewitt will survive as Health Secretary. Dull but loyal Stephen Timms will creep up the ladder again - maybe to Trade Secretary? Des Browne will move on from Defence into a less potent job like Constitutional Affairs. As he failed to be elected Deputy Leader, Peter Hain is appointed the new Foreign Secretary. Hazel Blears is shifted out of the Party Chairmanship and is replaced by Douglas Alexander. Blears is given a difficult role such as Work and Pensions.
Shadow Cabinet: Cameron will flesh out his version of Conservatism and it will reassure both the right of the party and the Daily Telegraph. David Davis will take on a much higher profile role. Cameron will use the summer as a chance to set in stone the team he wants to go into the next election. Hague will take the title of Deputy Leader byt both he and Osbourne will keep their present jobs. May will be downgraded again but will stay in the shadow cabinet. Grayling will be promoted again, as will Villiers. Some of Cameron's key players such as Gove, Vaizey and Herbert will make the shadow cabinet.
Norwich: Labour will hold on at the 2007 poll but only as a result of a split opposition. The Greens will continue to make gains (plural) and Labour will hold their key seats. Conservatives to hold onto Catton Grove and make further gains.
National: Cameron will score very well across the country, partly because of his strength in England and partly because of the introduction of STV in Scotland. Labour have a bad night - another factor in Brown's decision not to call a snap election. The LibDems will score a net reduction in seats.
LibDems: Following a bad May poll, Sir Ming Campbell will retire citing ill-health. A leadership election will follow that will be fought by Clegg, Huhne and Lamb. Huhne will win - only just and the two losers will be his Home and Foreign Affairs spokespeople. Cable will carry on as Deputy Leader and Treasury Spokesman. They will be forced to repay the £2.4m Brown money but it will not bankrupt the party.
Scotland: Labour will face a difficult election but will remain the large party in the parliament. Other parties will attempt to form a coalition but will fail, leading to a fragile Labour / LibDem administration limping on.
Labour Leadership: John Hutton will be the only candidate to take on Gordon Brown for the top job, with the election coming in June or July. Brown will win by a decent margin and Hutton will then refuse to serve in a Brown-led cabinet. Despite a big bounce in the polls, Labour's finances mean that Brown cannot go for a snap poll.
The cabinet: At least seven current ministers will go - (obviously Blair and Prescott) but I think Armstrong, Straw, Smith, Beckett, Hutton, Jowell and Falconer as well. How about this - Brown is elected Leader and Hilary Benn his Deputy. In a move that angers a lot of people (and the Daily Mail), he appoints fellow Scot Alistair Darling as the new Chancellor. John Reid takes a lower profile role as Leader of the House, which allows Alan Johnson to be the new Home Secretary as a reward for not taking on Gordon. Ruth Kelly is shifted over to somethin like International Development as she is given more time to defend her marginal parliamentary seat. David Milliband will be given a promotion to a major spending department like Education. Hewitt will survive as Health Secretary. Dull but loyal Stephen Timms will creep up the ladder again - maybe to Trade Secretary? Des Browne will move on from Defence into a less potent job like Constitutional Affairs. As he failed to be elected Deputy Leader, Peter Hain is appointed the new Foreign Secretary. Hazel Blears is shifted out of the Party Chairmanship and is replaced by Douglas Alexander. Blears is given a difficult role such as Work and Pensions.
Shadow Cabinet: Cameron will flesh out his version of Conservatism and it will reassure both the right of the party and the Daily Telegraph. David Davis will take on a much higher profile role. Cameron will use the summer as a chance to set in stone the team he wants to go into the next election. Hague will take the title of Deputy Leader byt both he and Osbourne will keep their present jobs. May will be downgraded again but will stay in the shadow cabinet. Grayling will be promoted again, as will Villiers. Some of Cameron's key players such as Gove, Vaizey and Herbert will make the shadow cabinet.
Norwich: Labour will hold on at the 2007 poll but only as a result of a split opposition. The Greens will continue to make gains (plural) and Labour will hold their key seats. Conservatives to hold onto Catton Grove and make further gains.
National: Cameron will score very well across the country, partly because of his strength in England and partly because of the introduction of STV in Scotland. Labour have a bad night - another factor in Brown's decision not to call a snap election. The LibDems will score a net reduction in seats.
LibDems: Following a bad May poll, Sir Ming Campbell will retire citing ill-health. A leadership election will follow that will be fought by Clegg, Huhne and Lamb. Huhne will win - only just and the two losers will be his Home and Foreign Affairs spokespeople. Cable will carry on as Deputy Leader and Treasury Spokesman. They will be forced to repay the £2.4m Brown money but it will not bankrupt the party.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)