So, Gordon Brown tells Andrew Marr: "Everything I have ever won in my life I have had to fight for."
You can understand the political line of attack behind this; portray Gordon Brown as the great battler in life, compared to David Cameron who has had everything presented to him on a silver platter. In the Downing Street bunker that line made total sense I'm sure.
The trouble is: it doesn't work.
It doesn't work because the class warfare stuff is failing badly.
It doesn't work because Cameron is open about his background and his rebuttle about the importance of family and education is good.
And it doesn't work because it isn't true.
Gordon Brown was selected for a safe Scottish Labour seat and even now will not struggle to get re-elected come the next election. He didn't have to fight for the Labour leadership in 2007 either, prefering a cornonation to an election. In fact, in many ways the opposite it true. Brown shows every signs of hating battles, even choosing to put off an election when he may have won it.
I am not saying he hasn't has problems in his life (his eye sight, for example, and the loss of his daughter) but to portary Brown as one of life's great battlers just isn't true.
If he said this line for political advantage he takes the British people for fools; we can see through it.
If he said this line and believed it, well, that's much more serious ...
Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts
Sunday, January 03, 2010
Saturday, June 06, 2009
The Results!
It was a strange feeling not having the count straight after polling day; you might have thought that we'd get some rest ready for the next day. But no; it was a party straight after and with the Euro verification dragging on we felt just as tired by the end of Friday than we would have just counting into the night!
The results for the Conservatives were oustanding; 60 seats out of 84, with some movement forward for the Greens (though in Norwich only), the LibDems slipped back again and Labour were virtually wiped out. Labour won just 3 seats across the whole of Norfolk - two in Norwich (University and Crome) and one in Yarmouth. UKIP picked up a seat in Yarmouth - but the real story was the Tory wave that knocked Labour out of their urban heartlands; Thetford, Dereham, Yarmouth, Kings Lynn, Bowthorpe, Catton ... they kept falling.
Here in the City, the Greens did pull off the big shocks. Paul Wells and Charlotte Casimir won our target seats of Bowthorpe and Catton Grove respectively; with the Tories coming agonisingly close in Crome and Eaton too. The LibDems picked up Lakenham but lost Thorpe Hamlet. The Greens, as expeced, won in Wensum, Mancroft, Nelson & Town Close. But when they also won Sewell and Mile Cross you knew something big had happened. Norwich Labour seem like they are living on borrowed time. These were even stranger because they were outside the Green "Norwich South" comfort zone.
In the end the vastly expensive LibDem campaign - including some very negative tactics which may yet re-bound on them - got them nowhere. Brian Watkins, a thoroughly decent man, shouldn't let the rogue elements of his party drag down his name like this. Labour looked exhausted by the end and the Greens jubilant.
But, of course, the Tories emerged victorious both on total Norfolk terms and with our new City-division Councillors. A good result all round!
The results for the Conservatives were oustanding; 60 seats out of 84, with some movement forward for the Greens (though in Norwich only), the LibDems slipped back again and Labour were virtually wiped out. Labour won just 3 seats across the whole of Norfolk - two in Norwich (University and Crome) and one in Yarmouth. UKIP picked up a seat in Yarmouth - but the real story was the Tory wave that knocked Labour out of their urban heartlands; Thetford, Dereham, Yarmouth, Kings Lynn, Bowthorpe, Catton ... they kept falling.
Here in the City, the Greens did pull off the big shocks. Paul Wells and Charlotte Casimir won our target seats of Bowthorpe and Catton Grove respectively; with the Tories coming agonisingly close in Crome and Eaton too. The LibDems picked up Lakenham but lost Thorpe Hamlet. The Greens, as expeced, won in Wensum, Mancroft, Nelson & Town Close. But when they also won Sewell and Mile Cross you knew something big had happened. Norwich Labour seem like they are living on borrowed time. These were even stranger because they were outside the Green "Norwich South" comfort zone.
In the end the vastly expensive LibDem campaign - including some very negative tactics which may yet re-bound on them - got them nowhere. Brian Watkins, a thoroughly decent man, shouldn't let the rogue elements of his party drag down his name like this. Labour looked exhausted by the end and the Greens jubilant.
But, of course, the Tories emerged victorious both on total Norfolk terms and with our new City-division Councillors. A good result all round!
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Best Comment of the Day
Actually from Friday's canvassing:
"I voted Lib Dem last year but these are serious election this year aren't they? I'm going to vote Conservative."
So ... County elections = serious. What does that make City elections? Oh dear!
"I voted Lib Dem last year but these are serious election this year aren't they? I'm going to vote Conservative."
So ... County elections = serious. What does that make City elections? Oh dear!
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Thinking Again
Every now and again, no matter how strongly you feel about something in politics, you have a moment where you think again.
I have been an Obama fan for a long, long time and have always felt that he has the charisma and - dare I say it - moral compass that America needs. Clearly its easy for a Brit to sit back and have such thoughts about a country I won't have to live in, but I put aside worries regarding some policy stances and put the man ahead of his party. I don't much like the Democrats - and particularly hate the Clintons (both in office and running for nomination) - but I felt that he represented something good in the party and would be the change that the US needs. I'm sure that's how a lot of people think about Cameron. I was caught up in Obama-mania; I don't dislike McCain, but Obama is on the ballot. And then, he chose Joe Biden as his running mate.
We know why he was chosen; a foreign affairs expert with plenty of experience and a sop to the Democrat core vote. However, I am puzzled why the Obama team built up such expectation given the sfae nature of this candidate.
I can also forget the fact that Biden said he wouldn't be considered for VP, and I can also push to the back of my mind the attacks he made on Obama and the faint praise he has given for McCain. I can also blank out the plagurism of a Kinnock speech! And then, of course, he voted for the war...
But in the same way that I have supported Obama on a "kind of feeling"; I have that same feeling against Biden. He isn't the change candidate. He's the long serving Senator for Delaware and represents exactly the kind of politican that has put America in the position it is now. He's the pseduo-Clinton candidate, the obvious, mainstream, steady-as-she-goes candidate. He doesn't excite me, he isn't passionate about the future and doesn't suggest change.
Biden has put me off the Dmeocratic ticket; and McCain is making the running in the campaign. For the first time, I think Obama could just lose this.
I have been an Obama fan for a long, long time and have always felt that he has the charisma and - dare I say it - moral compass that America needs. Clearly its easy for a Brit to sit back and have such thoughts about a country I won't have to live in, but I put aside worries regarding some policy stances and put the man ahead of his party. I don't much like the Democrats - and particularly hate the Clintons (both in office and running for nomination) - but I felt that he represented something good in the party and would be the change that the US needs. I'm sure that's how a lot of people think about Cameron. I was caught up in Obama-mania; I don't dislike McCain, but Obama is on the ballot. And then, he chose Joe Biden as his running mate.
We know why he was chosen; a foreign affairs expert with plenty of experience and a sop to the Democrat core vote. However, I am puzzled why the Obama team built up such expectation given the sfae nature of this candidate.
I can also forget the fact that Biden said he wouldn't be considered for VP, and I can also push to the back of my mind the attacks he made on Obama and the faint praise he has given for McCain. I can also blank out the plagurism of a Kinnock speech! And then, of course, he voted for the war...
But in the same way that I have supported Obama on a "kind of feeling"; I have that same feeling against Biden. He isn't the change candidate. He's the long serving Senator for Delaware and represents exactly the kind of politican that has put America in the position it is now. He's the pseduo-Clinton candidate, the obvious, mainstream, steady-as-she-goes candidate. He doesn't excite me, he isn't passionate about the future and doesn't suggest change.
Biden has put me off the Dmeocratic ticket; and McCain is making the running in the campaign. For the first time, I think Obama could just lose this.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Who has most to worry about from the 09 County elections?
A prolific reader of my blog, Comrade, left a short but interesting comment on my last post. He, once a Labour councillor left to join the LibDems, urged us to "bring on" the county elections. It made me think about who had most to gain, or lose, from that poll.
First thing to note is that it is not likely to be on the same day as a General Election and thus a much lower turnout may hit some majorities that were previously very high. And also being on the same day as the Euro elections may bring the right-wing vote out in much greater force. However, the statistics show some worries for all the parties.
In terms of marginal seats (those with a majority of less than 5%), the Tories hold 8 (out of 46), Labour have 5 (out of 22) and the LibDems have 6 (out of 14) - hence nearly half of the LibDem county group are vulnerable on quite small swings. Melton Constable has a LibDem majority of 0.02% (yes, a single vote) and the Tories in North Norfolk will be gunning for electoral revenge there. Kings Lynn South is held by the LibDems by 0.3% and East Depwade by 0.4% - both in areas with big swings back to the Tories in recent years. Clavering had a LibDem majority of 3% but the Tories won that back in a by-election last year so it may be difficult to hold. I would imagine at this stage that all four seats would be very difficult for them to hold. The LibDems also have a 0.6% majority in Aylsham (but a much better majority at the recent by-election) and a 2% lead in Cromer and both would be vulnerable to a Cameron surge. If the Tories do very well on polling day then Reepham (LibDem maj 7%) could also be at risk. Other LibDem seats should fare better - despite a fairly low 9% majority in Fakenham, the party are odds on to hold it. Their 22% majority in Eaton will look more vulnerable given the strides made by the Tories at City level, and a similar 22% majority in Thorpe Hamlet - their second safest seat - is under threat from the rampant Norwich Green Party who took the identical ward by 501 votes at City level.
Labour's urban outposts in Norfolk will face the test of a resurgant Tory Party next year as well. Great Yarmouth will see some pretty close fights - the semi-rural Lothingland Division has a Labour majority of just 0.5% for example. Thetford East (Labour maj 0.7%), Dereham South (Labour maj 3%), Caister (Labour maj 5%) and Gaywood North & Central (Labour maj 3%) would all become Tory seats based upon district results, let alone the opinion polls. And the news becomes worse for Labour - their 6% majority in Sprowston and 8% lead in Gaywood South (Kings Lynn) would currently both be wiped out. Breydon in Great Yarmouth had a Labour lead of 15% in 2005 and will certainly be top of the Great Yarmouth Tories hitlist, especially if Brandon Lewis is to be their next MP. It may even get worse than that, because a lot of very, very safe Labour seats in Norwich will also come into play on a low turnout. A 25% lead in Bowthorpe and a 22% lead in Catton Grove may also disappear if recent City elections are repeated and gains could be made by the Tories. Labour also hold seats in Lakenham, Mancroft and Wensum where the LibDems and Greens have since made City gains. Labour's county group could easily be reduced from 22 to 15 on a small swing back to the Tories and down to 10 if things go badly in Norwich.
The Greens, of course, start from a low base and should gain seats from Labour this time around. Town Close, despite the by-election win, won't be a guaranteed hold but Nelson should be pretty safe territory for them.
The Tories have most at risk, having most seats and an overall majority on the council - it would take just the loss of 4 seats for our overall majority to go. The LibDems will be looking no doubt at Long Stratton (Con maj 2%) and Diss (Con maj 4%) but given the massive Tory strides in South Norfolk, neither look vulnerable at the moment. They may rather fancy their chances in North Norfolk wheer the Tories currently lead by 4% in both Wells and Mundesley. On the outside, the LibDems may also choose to mount a strong challenge in Hellesdon (Con maj 8%) and Hoveton (Con maj 7%) but at the moment both look beyond their reach. Labour really have very few opportunities to make gains from the Tories - even a 0.7% Tory majority in the Broadland seat of Woodside looks a bit far fetched. Gorleston (Con maj 3%), Acle (Con maj 10%) and Old Catton (Con maj 7%) may all get Labour going but I don't think they stand a chance in those wards either.
So who are the likely winners and losers from this? The Tories look pretty secure and have plenty of chances to gains seats from both Labour and the LibDems. Few Tory Councillors will even be challenged by Labour, although a coupel of seats may have strong LibDem campaigns. I suspect we'll talking about the size of the Tory majority rather than if there will be one! The Labour Party pretty much face meltdown and their urban bases look set to fall; facing a Tory onslaught in GY, KL and Norwich (plus the Greens in Norwich too) they could be squeezed from all sides and could fall to third. The party with the biggest risk is the LibDems; on a good day they could hold seats and make a few gains, but they haven't had many good days recently. With the Greens stealing their clothes in Norwich and the rampant Tories in the county they could as easily be fighting the Greens for third place on county and they could fighting Labour for second. At the moment, I wouldn't want to be a LibDem strategist - over-stretch could cost them seats.
So that's it as I see it at the moment; things could change (and do) in politics) but I have tried to be honest. I'll let you guess the seats, but currently I think we'll see 54 Conservatives, 14 LibDems, 11 Labour and 5 Greens - an overall majority of 24 for the Tories.
The Tories have this election to win, Labour have it to lose ... but its the LibDems who should most fear the ballot box at the moment!
First thing to note is that it is not likely to be on the same day as a General Election and thus a much lower turnout may hit some majorities that were previously very high. And also being on the same day as the Euro elections may bring the right-wing vote out in much greater force. However, the statistics show some worries for all the parties.
In terms of marginal seats (those with a majority of less than 5%), the Tories hold 8 (out of 46), Labour have 5 (out of 22) and the LibDems have 6 (out of 14) - hence nearly half of the LibDem county group are vulnerable on quite small swings. Melton Constable has a LibDem majority of 0.02% (yes, a single vote) and the Tories in North Norfolk will be gunning for electoral revenge there. Kings Lynn South is held by the LibDems by 0.3% and East Depwade by 0.4% - both in areas with big swings back to the Tories in recent years. Clavering had a LibDem majority of 3% but the Tories won that back in a by-election last year so it may be difficult to hold. I would imagine at this stage that all four seats would be very difficult for them to hold. The LibDems also have a 0.6% majority in Aylsham (but a much better majority at the recent by-election) and a 2% lead in Cromer and both would be vulnerable to a Cameron surge. If the Tories do very well on polling day then Reepham (LibDem maj 7%) could also be at risk. Other LibDem seats should fare better - despite a fairly low 9% majority in Fakenham, the party are odds on to hold it. Their 22% majority in Eaton will look more vulnerable given the strides made by the Tories at City level, and a similar 22% majority in Thorpe Hamlet - their second safest seat - is under threat from the rampant Norwich Green Party who took the identical ward by 501 votes at City level.
Labour's urban outposts in Norfolk will face the test of a resurgant Tory Party next year as well. Great Yarmouth will see some pretty close fights - the semi-rural Lothingland Division has a Labour majority of just 0.5% for example. Thetford East (Labour maj 0.7%), Dereham South (Labour maj 3%), Caister (Labour maj 5%) and Gaywood North & Central (Labour maj 3%) would all become Tory seats based upon district results, let alone the opinion polls. And the news becomes worse for Labour - their 6% majority in Sprowston and 8% lead in Gaywood South (Kings Lynn) would currently both be wiped out. Breydon in Great Yarmouth had a Labour lead of 15% in 2005 and will certainly be top of the Great Yarmouth Tories hitlist, especially if Brandon Lewis is to be their next MP. It may even get worse than that, because a lot of very, very safe Labour seats in Norwich will also come into play on a low turnout. A 25% lead in Bowthorpe and a 22% lead in Catton Grove may also disappear if recent City elections are repeated and gains could be made by the Tories. Labour also hold seats in Lakenham, Mancroft and Wensum where the LibDems and Greens have since made City gains. Labour's county group could easily be reduced from 22 to 15 on a small swing back to the Tories and down to 10 if things go badly in Norwich.
The Greens, of course, start from a low base and should gain seats from Labour this time around. Town Close, despite the by-election win, won't be a guaranteed hold but Nelson should be pretty safe territory for them.
The Tories have most at risk, having most seats and an overall majority on the council - it would take just the loss of 4 seats for our overall majority to go. The LibDems will be looking no doubt at Long Stratton (Con maj 2%) and Diss (Con maj 4%) but given the massive Tory strides in South Norfolk, neither look vulnerable at the moment. They may rather fancy their chances in North Norfolk wheer the Tories currently lead by 4% in both Wells and Mundesley. On the outside, the LibDems may also choose to mount a strong challenge in Hellesdon (Con maj 8%) and Hoveton (Con maj 7%) but at the moment both look beyond their reach. Labour really have very few opportunities to make gains from the Tories - even a 0.7% Tory majority in the Broadland seat of Woodside looks a bit far fetched. Gorleston (Con maj 3%), Acle (Con maj 10%) and Old Catton (Con maj 7%) may all get Labour going but I don't think they stand a chance in those wards either.
So who are the likely winners and losers from this? The Tories look pretty secure and have plenty of chances to gains seats from both Labour and the LibDems. Few Tory Councillors will even be challenged by Labour, although a coupel of seats may have strong LibDem campaigns. I suspect we'll talking about the size of the Tory majority rather than if there will be one! The Labour Party pretty much face meltdown and their urban bases look set to fall; facing a Tory onslaught in GY, KL and Norwich (plus the Greens in Norwich too) they could be squeezed from all sides and could fall to third. The party with the biggest risk is the LibDems; on a good day they could hold seats and make a few gains, but they haven't had many good days recently. With the Greens stealing their clothes in Norwich and the rampant Tories in the county they could as easily be fighting the Greens for third place on county and they could fighting Labour for second. At the moment, I wouldn't want to be a LibDem strategist - over-stretch could cost them seats.
So that's it as I see it at the moment; things could change (and do) in politics) but I have tried to be honest. I'll let you guess the seats, but currently I think we'll see 54 Conservatives, 14 LibDems, 11 Labour and 5 Greens - an overall majority of 24 for the Tories.
The Tories have this election to win, Labour have it to lose ... but its the LibDems who should most fear the ballot box at the moment!
Sunday, May 11, 2008
It's Cruddas vs. X (where X is any moderniser)
Gordon Brown is not going to resign; no matter how low they go in the polls, or how much local or by-elections they lose or how much he destroys the country. He slogged through the Blair years, yearning for this job and he will not go down in History as one of the shortest serving and most useful Prime Minister's ever.
However ... if he were to fall under a (political) bus, what is clear is that it's Jon Cruddas who will carry to flag of real Labour forward. His excellent showing in the Deputy Leadership contest - coming from nowhere to winning on first preferences - plus the dignified way he has handled himself since has put him in poll position. With all of the other Deputy Leadership candidate pretyt much humiliating themselves (including the eventual winner), he still holds a place in the heart of the Labour Party membership and the Trade Union movement if not the PLP.
So, if its Cruddas then who will he be against? I believe that the deal will be done to ensure only one candidate emerges from the Blairite right of the party; they won't want to split the vote and will want to be seen to be united. They may find themselves against a self-styled "unity" candidate like Jack Straw, but the Milliband-Balls-Burnham-Purnell alliance will be at work.
If I were in that alliance, I'd be working out who is going to be doing the challenge in the next 2 years - because they'll need all the traction they can get to beat Straw out of the traps and beat Cruddas to the votes.
However ... if he were to fall under a (political) bus, what is clear is that it's Jon Cruddas who will carry to flag of real Labour forward. His excellent showing in the Deputy Leadership contest - coming from nowhere to winning on first preferences - plus the dignified way he has handled himself since has put him in poll position. With all of the other Deputy Leadership candidate pretyt much humiliating themselves (including the eventual winner), he still holds a place in the heart of the Labour Party membership and the Trade Union movement if not the PLP.
So, if its Cruddas then who will he be against? I believe that the deal will be done to ensure only one candidate emerges from the Blairite right of the party; they won't want to split the vote and will want to be seen to be united. They may find themselves against a self-styled "unity" candidate like Jack Straw, but the Milliband-Balls-Burnham-Purnell alliance will be at work.
If I were in that alliance, I'd be working out who is going to be doing the challenge in the next 2 years - because they'll need all the traction they can get to beat Straw out of the traps and beat Cruddas to the votes.
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Morph does it again
A friend draws my attention to serial election-denier Steve Morphew.
Last year he said that Bowthorpe was robbed of a Labour Councillor (it elected a hard working Conservative instead) because of some obscure unitary leaflet.
Now apparently he writes in the Evening News that the people of Bowthorpe and Catton Grove must have woken up to wonder what they did by dumping failed Labour (and electing hard working Conservatives instead).
Elections are tough stuff; why can't we just accept the verdict of the electorate without claiming they had got it wrong or didn't know what they were doing?
Last year he said that Bowthorpe was robbed of a Labour Councillor (it elected a hard working Conservative instead) because of some obscure unitary leaflet.
Now apparently he writes in the Evening News that the people of Bowthorpe and Catton Grove must have woken up to wonder what they did by dumping failed Labour (and electing hard working Conservatives instead).
Elections are tough stuff; why can't we just accept the verdict of the electorate without claiming they had got it wrong or didn't know what they were doing?
Saturday, April 05, 2008
UPDATED: City Elections: Nominations revealed
Yesterday was the last day to get your nomination paper in for the City elections. You can get a full run down here but I thought I'd just summerise the situation. The main 4 parties are contesting every seat - Conservative, Labour, Green and LibDems - plus there's UKIP in Lakenham and Norwich-over-the-Water in Sewell.
In terms of interesting candidates;
For the LibDems its all change; the talented Gordon Dean is relgated to an absolute thrashing in Catton Grove, whilst his former Councillor Colleague Chris Thomas takes on Mile Cross - the LibDems say this indicates how seriously they are taking the ward, but I didn't know Chris was that keen on getting back on the council. Nelson stalwart David Fairbairn now ends up defending Hereward's old patch in Lakenham, whilst Judith Lubbock takes on Eaton. Interestingly former Heathersett Councillor Jackie Sutton - who lost her seat in the South Norfolk Tory landslide of 07 - reappears as candidate for ultra-marginal Thorpe Hamlet. Lastly I suppose is the decision of another former Councillor, Ian Williams, to take on Sewell. The NOTWP candidate will I'm sure shake this seat up and any party who effectivly harnesses the anti-Labour vote may do well. Williams has been, in his (and my) time, a formiddable candidate and this could now be the ward to watch.
Labour have had an easier time of candidate selection. Their sitting Councillors have a tough time - Mick Banham in Sewell, Brenda Ferris in Bowthorpe and Julie Westmacott in Catton Grove all have the fights of their lives. Deborah Gilwahi (Mile Cross), Brenda Arthur (University) and Bob Sanderson (Lakenham) all hope to step into LibDem shoes and the hopes of the party will essentially rest upon their shoulders. Dvaid Bradford, a real champion, stands again for Crome. The most interesting candidate in many ways is Steph Clark - standing in Wensum - incidentally standing against a LibDem called Brian Clark. Labour feel they have a real chance here and have certainly done a lot of work. And, of course, we have to mention the gallant Phil Taylor who is leading the Labour chances in Eaton.
The Greens have a full slate again; one switch is being made with Adrian Holmes leaving Wensum and seeking election in Mancroft leaving his old ward to UEA student Ruth Makoff. There are also some relationship candidates this time. Adrian Ramsay's girlfriend is their candidate in Bowthorpe and Janet Bearman's husband is standing in Eaton. Stop-the-War campaigner Peter Offord leads their charge in ultra-marginal Thorpe Hamlet. In Town Close the unknown Samir Jeraj is standing (more of this later).
Please feel free to post your predictions
In terms of interesting candidates;
For the LibDems its all change; the talented Gordon Dean is relgated to an absolute thrashing in Catton Grove, whilst his former Councillor Colleague Chris Thomas takes on Mile Cross - the LibDems say this indicates how seriously they are taking the ward, but I didn't know Chris was that keen on getting back on the council. Nelson stalwart David Fairbairn now ends up defending Hereward's old patch in Lakenham, whilst Judith Lubbock takes on Eaton. Interestingly former Heathersett Councillor Jackie Sutton - who lost her seat in the South Norfolk Tory landslide of 07 - reappears as candidate for ultra-marginal Thorpe Hamlet. Lastly I suppose is the decision of another former Councillor, Ian Williams, to take on Sewell. The NOTWP candidate will I'm sure shake this seat up and any party who effectivly harnesses the anti-Labour vote may do well. Williams has been, in his (and my) time, a formiddable candidate and this could now be the ward to watch.
Labour have had an easier time of candidate selection. Their sitting Councillors have a tough time - Mick Banham in Sewell, Brenda Ferris in Bowthorpe and Julie Westmacott in Catton Grove all have the fights of their lives. Deborah Gilwahi (Mile Cross), Brenda Arthur (University) and Bob Sanderson (Lakenham) all hope to step into LibDem shoes and the hopes of the party will essentially rest upon their shoulders. Dvaid Bradford, a real champion, stands again for Crome. The most interesting candidate in many ways is Steph Clark - standing in Wensum - incidentally standing against a LibDem called Brian Clark. Labour feel they have a real chance here and have certainly done a lot of work. And, of course, we have to mention the gallant Phil Taylor who is leading the Labour chances in Eaton.
The Greens have a full slate again; one switch is being made with Adrian Holmes leaving Wensum and seeking election in Mancroft leaving his old ward to UEA student Ruth Makoff. There are also some relationship candidates this time. Adrian Ramsay's girlfriend is their candidate in Bowthorpe and Janet Bearman's husband is standing in Eaton. Stop-the-War campaigner Peter Offord leads their charge in ultra-marginal Thorpe Hamlet. In Town Close the unknown Samir Jeraj is standing (more of this later).
Please feel free to post your predictions
Friday, March 28, 2008
Tories announce local poll candidates
The Norwich Conservatives have announced the 13 candidates who will contest the local elections on 1st May, ensuring that everybody in the City has the chance to vote for a Conservative candidate.
Conservative Group Leader Cllr Antony Little said: "Everyone in the City now has a chance to vote for a hard working, common sense ConservativeCouncillor who will put tackling anti-social behaviour, cleaning up the streets and fighting for our Post Offices at the heart of their work."
"The Conservatives are a very different political party for Norwich - the only party that spoke up against the millions wasted on the unitary project and the only party that voted to freeze council tax levels this year."
"Last year we won the same number of wards as the LibDems and gained as many seats as the Greens. Every year we win more votes and more Councillors. This year could be crucial, and every new Conservative Councillor will mean we have a better chance of a value-for-money council that puts residents first."
The full list of candidates is:
Bowthorpe - Niki George
Catton Grove - John Fisher
Crome - Ernie Horth
Eaton - Niall Baxter
Lakenham - Eileen Wyatt
Mancroft - Andrew Wiltshire
Mile Cross - Clive Smith
Nelson - Malcolm Chamberlin
Sewell - David Mackie
Thorpe Hamlet - Matthew Davison
Town Close - Tak Man Li
University - Paul Wells
Wensum - Mike Gillespie
Conservative Group Leader Cllr Antony Little said: "Everyone in the City now has a chance to vote for a hard working, common sense ConservativeCouncillor who will put tackling anti-social behaviour, cleaning up the streets and fighting for our Post Offices at the heart of their work."
"The Conservatives are a very different political party for Norwich - the only party that spoke up against the millions wasted on the unitary project and the only party that voted to freeze council tax levels this year."
"Last year we won the same number of wards as the LibDems and gained as many seats as the Greens. Every year we win more votes and more Councillors. This year could be crucial, and every new Conservative Councillor will mean we have a better chance of a value-for-money council that puts residents first."
The full list of candidates is:
Bowthorpe - Niki George
Catton Grove - John Fisher
Crome - Ernie Horth
Eaton - Niall Baxter
Lakenham - Eileen Wyatt
Mancroft - Andrew Wiltshire
Mile Cross - Clive Smith
Nelson - Malcolm Chamberlin
Sewell - David Mackie
Thorpe Hamlet - Matthew Davison
Town Close - Tak Man Li
University - Paul Wells
Wensum - Mike Gillespie
Sunday, January 27, 2008
May poll strategy U-turn for LibDems
The vast majority of political hacks in and around the City expect the LibDems to get a damn good kicking at the May elections. However, I am reliably informed that the yellow peril have come up with a cunning plan to avoid such a fate ... targeting.
The LibDems were once the Kings of Targeting ... knowing where to put their resources, being able to move on from seats they would win to the marginals and knowing when the pull out. But in recent years they have missed this point and have slogged around Nelson furiously (getting destroyed by the Greens) whilst at the same time losing out in Lakenham but a couple of dozen votes.
So, I'm told, they have decided that some wards are beyond their reach and others are worth the fight. Amazingly they seem to have given up against the Greens whilst believing that the fight is still on with Labour. So, Thorpe Hamlet with a 1 vote LibDem majority is set to be all-but abandoned whilst University Ward, with a 600-odd Labour majority, is to be targetted. Similarly, Town Close and Mancroft are to be thrown to the wall. Then in Lakenham and Mile Cross are to be the scenes of the LibDem final lines of trenches. Interesting stuff; a realisation that the Greens haven't yet hit their peak of popularity or a realisation that Labour can still be beaten in Norwich and that Brown isn't "top cat"?
I also know that this decision - probably driven by the new professional LibDem team who have taken over - hasn't gone down well with the Councillors, and their activist friends, who aren't going to get support.
This strategy could also frustrate Labour; they had planned on the LibDems slinking away in those wards freeing them up to defend other seats and also chase the new Labour fascination - Wensum Ward.
If the LibDems sort their game out, it could yet be a fascinating May election.
The LibDems were once the Kings of Targeting ... knowing where to put their resources, being able to move on from seats they would win to the marginals and knowing when the pull out. But in recent years they have missed this point and have slogged around Nelson furiously (getting destroyed by the Greens) whilst at the same time losing out in Lakenham but a couple of dozen votes.
So, I'm told, they have decided that some wards are beyond their reach and others are worth the fight. Amazingly they seem to have given up against the Greens whilst believing that the fight is still on with Labour. So, Thorpe Hamlet with a 1 vote LibDem majority is set to be all-but abandoned whilst University Ward, with a 600-odd Labour majority, is to be targetted. Similarly, Town Close and Mancroft are to be thrown to the wall. Then in Lakenham and Mile Cross are to be the scenes of the LibDem final lines of trenches. Interesting stuff; a realisation that the Greens haven't yet hit their peak of popularity or a realisation that Labour can still be beaten in Norwich and that Brown isn't "top cat"?
I also know that this decision - probably driven by the new professional LibDem team who have taken over - hasn't gone down well with the Councillors, and their activist friends, who aren't going to get support.
This strategy could also frustrate Labour; they had planned on the LibDems slinking away in those wards freeing them up to defend other seats and also chase the new Labour fascination - Wensum Ward.
If the LibDems sort their game out, it could yet be a fascinating May election.
Thursday, November 01, 2007
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Treshold, Scrutiny, Unitary & Gordon
A short one tonight I'm afraid, it's been a five period day including my threshold observation (scary), then Scrutiny committee and then Norwich Area committee to thrash through unitary (again). I pity the deluded attitude of my Labour, LibDem and Green colleagues who really think that one day we'll all get together and thrash through a deal on unitary. As the sensible Labour Councillor Sue Whittaker said, "pigs will fly". The fact that we disagree is good for democracy - it means we can have a fight, vote and then get on with the majority. If we all agreed, they'd be no point in elections!
The scenes on TV on my return home were more of a shock - Gordon and Maggie! Is this a cunning plan for Gordon to alienate the last left wing voters into not supporting him? I can't imagine why he thought this was a good idea - it won't win him a single Tory vote to see him with Thatcher but it may just lose a bucket of Labour ones! He should have stayed well clear, because it has taken the heat off Cameron after the publication of a difficult policy document.
Similarly the decision to use Saatchi&Saatchi for their adverts is rather more "gimmick Gordon" than "flash Gordon". This hasn't been a bad day for Gordon, but it could have been better ... by not even getitng out of bed!
The scenes on TV on my return home were more of a shock - Gordon and Maggie! Is this a cunning plan for Gordon to alienate the last left wing voters into not supporting him? I can't imagine why he thought this was a good idea - it won't win him a single Tory vote to see him with Thatcher but it may just lose a bucket of Labour ones! He should have stayed well clear, because it has taken the heat off Cameron after the publication of a difficult policy document.
Similarly the decision to use Saatchi&Saatchi for their adverts is rather more "gimmick Gordon" than "flash Gordon". This hasn't been a bad day for Gordon, but it could have been better ... by not even getitng out of bed!
Friday, July 27, 2007
It's a done deal
The EDP reports this morning that a senior source in Whitehall says that the Greater Norwich bid is now a done deal. Nothing we, or the public, can say will stop this now. Apparently everything from Taverham in the North to Long Stratton in the South is about to come under City Hall control. A few points, randomly and in no particular order, spring to mind:
This is the most undemocratic and political move ever by a British government towards a faction of local government, outstripping even the 1974 reorganisaion. I think a lot of people who oppose this move will punish Labour at the polls.
If they do that the irony is, as suggested by the EDP, that the Tories could just form a majority administration in the City. I'm sure that will thrill Morph, Read, Ramsay, Cooke and all the other unitary cheerleaders who did this to get away from Conservative control!
It will mean massive ward boundary changes. I think wards ought to get smaller and that we should have 2 member divisions with bi-annual elections, but anything could now happen.
Broadland and South Norfolk become untennable as districts. What do they do now?
And one final thought - do the Leaders of Norfolk, South Norfolk and Broadland now accept the fait accompi and work towards getting a good deal in the breakup of the councils or do they die in a ditch for their residents and risk letting Labour set the post-unitary agenda? I personally don't think that the residents would accept anything short of death-in-action over this. We must oppose this to the bitter end - and then win the unitary poll.
This is the most undemocratic and political move ever by a British government towards a faction of local government, outstripping even the 1974 reorganisaion. I think a lot of people who oppose this move will punish Labour at the polls.
If they do that the irony is, as suggested by the EDP, that the Tories could just form a majority administration in the City. I'm sure that will thrill Morph, Read, Ramsay, Cooke and all the other unitary cheerleaders who did this to get away from Conservative control!
It will mean massive ward boundary changes. I think wards ought to get smaller and that we should have 2 member divisions with bi-annual elections, but anything could now happen.
Broadland and South Norfolk become untennable as districts. What do they do now?
And one final thought - do the Leaders of Norfolk, South Norfolk and Broadland now accept the fait accompi and work towards getting a good deal in the breakup of the councils or do they die in a ditch for their residents and risk letting Labour set the post-unitary agenda? I personally don't think that the residents would accept anything short of death-in-action over this. We must oppose this to the bitter end - and then win the unitary poll.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Goldie is the real star of the campaign
Annabel Goldie was the seemingly safe pair of hands chosen by the Scottish Conservatives after the resignation of former leader David McLetchie. Ms Goldie was seen by many to be rather dull and uninspiring - and her leadership had a rocky start. A LibDem friend of mine in Scotland even told me that Goldie was our Ming Campbell!
However, now the campaign in Scotland is almost over many people think that the only person to have come out of this enhanced is the Tory Leader. She has shone on TV debates, won over the anti-Tory media and recieved plaudits for her "bread and butter" election pledges. The Scottish campaign seems to have been run very well this time and I hope the campaigners there feel this on the ground.
Whilst McConnell (Labour's First Minister) and SNP Chief Alex Salmond slug it out, and poor LibDem Thingy Nicol delves further into obscurity, Annabel Goldie has made a name for herself. The media say it, the pundits say it and I hope the voters do. Certainly my friends in Scotland are impressed with her - but are saying they are still undecided. I hope Goldie's honesty and integrity give them cause to vote Conservative on 3rd May.
UPDATE: A text puts me right. They are happy to vote Conservative on the top-up, but as the Conservatives apparently cannot win in their local constituency they are still looking for somebody to vote for! A hand slapping for me, there!
However, now the campaign in Scotland is almost over many people think that the only person to have come out of this enhanced is the Tory Leader. She has shone on TV debates, won over the anti-Tory media and recieved plaudits for her "bread and butter" election pledges. The Scottish campaign seems to have been run very well this time and I hope the campaigners there feel this on the ground.
Whilst McConnell (Labour's First Minister) and SNP Chief Alex Salmond slug it out, and poor LibDem Thingy Nicol delves further into obscurity, Annabel Goldie has made a name for herself. The media say it, the pundits say it and I hope the voters do. Certainly my friends in Scotland are impressed with her - but are saying they are still undecided. I hope Goldie's honesty and integrity give them cause to vote Conservative on 3rd May.
UPDATE: A text puts me right. They are happy to vote Conservative on the top-up, but as the Conservatives apparently cannot win in their local constituency they are still looking for somebody to vote for! A hand slapping for me, there!
The Glamerous Life of the Election Agent
Apart from holidng down a full time job, I have in the last 3 nights spent my time putting up posters, delivering leaflets, bundling up for deliverers, canvassing, printing leaflets, writing to electors and sending e-mails.
But, In the words of a certain former PM, "I'm enjoying this!"
But, In the words of a certain former PM, "I'm enjoying this!"
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Brown's snap election?
The BBC, amongst others, is current speculating about the posibility of a snap 2007 poll following Brown's coronation as Labour Leader. Labour Chairman Hazel Blears - currently engulfed in her own fight to be selected in a parliamentary seat following the abolishion of her current Salford berth - has even put out the feelers to Labour workers that it could come sooner rather than later. I'm very dubious about this - not for historical comparisons or anything of that like, but for one very simple reason.Money. Labour doesn't have it and neither, to be totally honest, do the other parties. Labour would have to be fund raising much faster (and selecting PPCs too, but that is another matter) than they are at the moment to fill the finanical gap. I have always argued that Brown's best chance is by using the post-Blair bounce that is bound to happen - but a few housekeeping realities may stop that from happening.
Party finances need stability - and that is why all parties run in four year cycles. The bureaucracy loves regularity and snap polls could give a few party accountants heart attacks (on all sides). As money and finance become a bigger and bigger part of each subsequent election campaign the choosing of the date is more a question for the Treasurer than the Prime Minister.
The money men would much rather have fixed term parliaments and, I have to say, that is where my thinking is taking me too.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)