McCain: It wasn't all bad

The result of the Presidential election is surly a triumph for Obama and the world just felt happier today; so many people at work (including children) just smiling at the thought of the win. However, reverting to type for just one blog post, I would like to counter the argument that this was a landslide but would suggest that the Republican have to do some tough thinking in the next year.

The fact that McCain walked out of this election with 46% of the vote – relatively close to Obama – is nothing short of a miracle. That is at the top end of the national polling and still within striking distance of the Democrat. No wonder the first few hours of the results was nail biting given the swing coming Obama’s way. Just consider this – after 8 years of Bush, 8 years of Republican rule, 2 wars, 1 bust economy and god knows how many scandals, 46% of Americans **still** voted for McCain. That is a tribute to McCain himself and also to Sarah Palin, the undisputed winner of the campaign – like her or loath or, she’s now a star and may set up for another run – who helped bring home the Conservative base of the party. This was not a popular vote drubbing for McCain. However it was an ECV vote drubbing – not as bad as it could have been (see Hoover circa 1932 etc).

And looking ahead, the next Republican challenger should be able to take all of the knife edge states back with little trouble. After one term of office the shine will have come off Obama and the realities of government set in. Hence the Republicans should be able to take back, say, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri and Iowa with some ease. However this still leaves the next Rep candidate well short of President Obama seeking re-election. Here’s why; if you add up the safe states for each party, the Dems have a much bigger in-built lead, leaving the Republicans having to win more swing states. If you count the whole of New England, the West Coast and the industrial North East as safe Democrat (NH excepted) then the Dems have around 220 ECVs before they start. If you count the West, Mid West and most Southern states in the red column, the Reps only have around 160 ECVs. This electoral inbalance needs to be addressed by the Reps. They could, for example, throw everything into Ohio, Florida etc again or they could find a way to connect with an area that is Democratic base in the same way they Dems did to them. Why, for example, is the GOP not doing more to see why Washington, Oregon and California don’t vote for them? Or Michigan and Wisconsin? If they continue to allow the Dems to build up 220 out of the 270 they need without any real opposition then they will continue to struggle to win elections based upon a small number of swing states.

Either way the Republicans won’t fall apart and there is still life in the old dog yet. The election was bad but leaves room for recovery.

Today's the Day

Well, the one thing we do know is that George W. Bush isn't going to win today's US election. I've personally had a bit of a strange journey in American politics recently. I was in the USA for the campaign that led to Bush's first election in 2000; although in staunchly Democratic California. I supported Bush then and was pleased to see him elected. Throughout his first term in office I became disillusioned a great deal but never took to Kerry so was begrudgingly satisfied when he won re-election (more so when Bob Worcester made himself look like an idiot on national TV by declaring Kerry to be the winner). And now, well, as regular readers will know I have liked and supported Obama from the start. However as the campaign went on and plans were laid out, I became more and more worried about his plans for a "big government" response to the problems of the USA, and by extension the world. I don't fear a McCain government - not in the way I would fear another Bush term - and that is my problem. I wonder if I would be one of those people who thought I wanted to vote Obama but lose my nerve and vote McCain at the last minute?

For what its worth, my prediction tonight is for an Obama landslide - and I mean landslide. It is testament to McCain, and especially his back story, that despite 8 years of Republican government he remains at the mid 40s in the polls. I believe Obama will win, but the vote margin will be closer than the polls but the ECV margin will be wider.

Presidential Debate: I give it to McCain

I am currently watching the highlights of the US Presidential Debate which happened last night. I have to say that most of the mainstream media and the US polls have given victory to Barack Obama; even some die-hard Tories had too. I therefore watched with great interested - and as an Obama supporter (but only just) I have been greatly disappointed.

Obama is a great mass platform speaker; he did well in Germany but his style is not fit for the townhall style meeting. McCain was quiet, dignified and connected well with the audience. His hand-shaking with the former Navy officer and claiming that everything he learnt about leadership came from a Petty Officer was well judged. Obama seemed unable to do "quiet" diplomacy and his frequent slips in language allowed McCain to come back at him.

Similarly Obama's call for comebacks on some of the points made him look like he was playing catch-up; a little bit desperate if you ask me. McCain is well suited to this kind of format but I was surprised that Obama didn't change his outlook to suit this.

As predicted McCain did much better on Foreign Affairs and it was pretty much a draw on the economy.

Obama's best moment was in reply to the tricky last question about what he didn't know. His reply was that Michelle, his wife, could give a much longer answer. However the answer then went downhill after that. McCain's response was much better - in a debating sense - in saying that he didn't know what was coming next on the economy and foreign affairs. McCain's last blast about belief in America, his service and their future was very good indeed.

As I say this debate really shocked me because I took a different view from that which I expected to take. On policy Obama didn't set me on fire (but neither did McCain) but badly let me down on style. However the bar was higher for McCain than it was for Obama; they both cleared the bar but McCain had to jump higher to do so.

Thinking Again

Every now and again, no matter how strongly you feel about something in politics, you have a moment where you think again.

I have been an Obama fan for a long, long time and have always felt that he has the charisma and - dare I say it - moral compass that America needs. Clearly its easy for a Brit to sit back and have such thoughts about a country I won't have to live in, but I put aside worries regarding some policy stances and put the man ahead of his party. I don't much like the Democrats - and particularly hate the Clintons (both in office and running for nomination) - but I felt that he represented something good in the party and would be the change that the US needs. I'm sure that's how a lot of people think about Cameron. I was caught up in Obama-mania; I don't dislike McCain, but Obama is on the ballot. And then, he chose Joe Biden as his running mate.

We know why he was chosen; a foreign affairs expert with plenty of experience and a sop to the Democrat core vote. However, I am puzzled why the Obama team built up such expectation given the sfae nature of this candidate.

I can also forget the fact that Biden said he wouldn't be considered for VP, and I can also push to the back of my mind the attacks he made on Obama and the faint praise he has given for McCain. I can also blank out the plagurism of a Kinnock speech! And then, of course, he voted for the war...

But in the same way that I have supported Obama on a "kind of feeling"; I have that same feeling against Biden. He isn't the change candidate. He's the long serving Senator for Delaware and represents exactly the kind of politican that has put America in the position it is now. He's the pseduo-Clinton candidate, the obvious, mainstream, steady-as-she-goes candidate. He doesn't excite me, he isn't passionate about the future and doesn't suggest change.

Biden has put me off the Dmeocratic ticket; and McCain is making the running in the campaign. For the first time, I think Obama could just lose this.