Yesterday was the last day to get your nomination paper in for the City elections. You can get a full run down here but I thought I'd just summerise the situation. The main 4 parties are contesting every seat - Conservative, Labour, Green and LibDems - plus there's UKIP in Lakenham and Norwich-over-the-Water in Sewell.
In terms of interesting candidates;
For the LibDems its all change; the talented Gordon Dean is relgated to an absolute thrashing in Catton Grove, whilst his former Councillor Colleague Chris Thomas takes on Mile Cross - the LibDems say this indicates how seriously they are taking the ward, but I didn't know Chris was that keen on getting back on the council. Nelson stalwart David Fairbairn now ends up defending Hereward's old patch in Lakenham, whilst Judith Lubbock takes on Eaton. Interestingly former Heathersett Councillor Jackie Sutton - who lost her seat in the South Norfolk Tory landslide of 07 - reappears as candidate for ultra-marginal Thorpe Hamlet. Lastly I suppose is the decision of another former Councillor, Ian Williams, to take on Sewell. The NOTWP candidate will I'm sure shake this seat up and any party who effectivly harnesses the anti-Labour vote may do well. Williams has been, in his (and my) time, a formiddable candidate and this could now be the ward to watch.
Labour have had an easier time of candidate selection. Their sitting Councillors have a tough time - Mick Banham in Sewell, Brenda Ferris in Bowthorpe and Julie Westmacott in Catton Grove all have the fights of their lives. Deborah Gilwahi (Mile Cross), Brenda Arthur (University) and Bob Sanderson (Lakenham) all hope to step into LibDem shoes and the hopes of the party will essentially rest upon their shoulders. Dvaid Bradford, a real champion, stands again for Crome. The most interesting candidate in many ways is Steph Clark - standing in Wensum - incidentally standing against a LibDem called Brian Clark. Labour feel they have a real chance here and have certainly done a lot of work. And, of course, we have to mention the gallant Phil Taylor who is leading the Labour chances in Eaton.
The Greens have a full slate again; one switch is being made with Adrian Holmes leaving Wensum and seeking election in Mancroft leaving his old ward to UEA student Ruth Makoff. There are also some relationship candidates this time. Adrian Ramsay's girlfriend is their candidate in Bowthorpe and Janet Bearman's husband is standing in Eaton. Stop-the-War campaigner Peter Offord leads their charge in ultra-marginal Thorpe Hamlet. In Town Close the unknown Samir Jeraj is standing (more of this later).
Please feel free to post your predictions
7 comments:
my ward by ward predictions
Bowthrope- CON gain (maj 50-100)
Catton Grove - CON gain (maj 100-200)
Crome - LAB hold (maj 300-500)
Eaton - LIB hold (maj 50-200)
Lakenham - LAB gain (maj 10-50)
Mancroft - GREEN gain (maj 300-500)
Mile Cross - LAB gain (maj 250-400)
Nelson - GREEN hold (maj over 1000)
Sewell- LAB hold (maj 50-150)
Thorpe Hamlett - GREEN gain (maj 100-200)
Town Close - GREEN gain (maj 700-
800)
University - LAB gain (maj 400-500)
Wensum - GREEN hold (maj 400-500)
Council 2007
LAB 15, LIB 11, GREEN 10, CON 3
Council 2008
LAB 16, GREEN 13, lIB 5, CON 5
PETE S.
Here's a question - the Tories are fielding Broadland District councillor John Fisher in a ward they won last year - is this a thumbs up for unitary??
On Ian Williams - he is a very effective campaigner but seems to have been sidelined in recent years. I think he he was serious about getting back he would have put up in university ward.
NOTW muddies the waters in Sewell - splitting the anti-Labour votes will be good news for Mick Banham and less good for the Greens who came 2nd last year.
MIle X - Labour have a new candidate - might be in a weaker position than last year. If Thomas goes for it he might stand a chance - somehow though I am not sure that he will.
Lakenham - Labour are fielding former councillor Bob Sanderson who has never been a very lucky candidate.
Otherwise these are my musings on a different post last night which I'll cut and paste for the sake of debate..
Some key questions for this year...
1. How far will the Lib Dems plunge? They stand to lose 7 of their 11 seats. Best course is probably to cut their losses - concentrate on Eaton, Thorpe Hamlet and one other (probably Lakenham is still best bet).
2. Can the Tories make any impact in Norwich North. There is a bright young PPC and the Tories held a seat last year. This is the first opportunity to make an impression. The Tories picking another candidate in Catton who is already a councillor elsewhere has put a smile on Labour's face.
3. Can Labour fend off the Tories in its heartlands? Bowthorpe will be a key battleground - there was a certain amount of blood pilled in Labour ranks last year with a perception that the powers that be abandoned this seat on election day. I don't think Brenda Ferris will let them do that this year!
4. Is this the historic opportunity for the Greens - can they go bigger than mopping up the spare seats in wards they hold? With the likelihood of unitary this might be the only opportunity for the Greens to grab poll position. Would expect gains in TC, Mancroft, probably Thorpe Hamlet to take them to 13. However, I still feel Sewell is there for the taking if they wants to look bigger - the Greens haven't gained a seat off Labour since 2004.
My preliminary thoughts are
Bowthorpe - Lab hold (just)
Catton - Lab hold
Crome- Lab hold
Eaton- Con gain
Lakenham - Lab gain (just)
Mancroft - Green gain
Mile X - Lab gain
Nelson - Green hold
Sewell - Lab hold (just)
Thorpe Hamlet - Green gain
Town Close - Green gain
Wensum - Green hold
University - Lab gain
So - Lab - 18, Green 13, Lib 4, Con 4.
But who knows it could end up
Lab 14 (gain Uni,Milex - lose Bowth,Sewell,CG,)
Green 14 (gain Sewell,TH,TC.Manc)
Lib 5 (hold Lak),
Con 6 (gain Bowth,Catton, Eaton)
or even better if fate conspires that Labour make no gains - Lab 12, Green 14, Lib 7, Con 6
Lab HOLD Crome, Catton Grove
Lab GAIN Mile Cross, Lakenham, University
Con GAIN Bowthorpe, Eaton
Green HOLD Nelson, Wensum
Green GAIN Mancroft, Town Close, Thorpe Hamlet
Sewell - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
New Council: Lab 16, Green 13, Con 5, LD 4 - with one seat (Sewell) that could go anyway.
So the Lib Dems exceded the expectations of most people on this thread. Increasing their vote in Eaton and comfortably holding onto Lakenham.
Pete's prediction:
Bowthrope- CON gain (maj 50-100) : Right party, wrong majority
Catton Grove - CON gain (maj 100-200) : Spot On
Crome - LAB hold (maj 300-500) : Spot On
Eaton - LIB hold (maj 50-200): Right party, wrong majority
Lakenham - LAB gain (maj 10-50) - Totally wrong
Mancroft - GREEN gain (maj 300-500) : Spot on
Mile Cross - LAB gain (maj 250-400): spot on
Nelson - GREEN hold (maj over 1000) : Spot on
Sewell- LAB hold (maj 50-150) : Spot on
Thorpe Hamlett - GREEN gain (maj 100-200): Right party wrong majority
Town Close - GREEN gain (maj 700-
800): Spot on
University - LAB gain (maj 400-500): Right party wrong majority
Wensum - GREEN hold (maj 400-500): Spot on
Council 2007
LAB 15, LIB 11, GREEN 10, CON 3
Council 2008
LAB 16, GREEN 13, lIB 5, CON 5
Just one out on the result; good stuff
Comrade:
Bowthorpe - Lab hold (just) WRONG
Catton - Lab hold WRONG
Crome- Lab hold RIGHT
Eaton- Con gain WRONG
Lakenham - Lab gain (just) WRONG
Mancroft - Green gain RIGHT
Mile X - Lab gain RIGHT
Nelson - Green hold RIGHT
Sewell - Lab hold (just)RIGHT
Thorpe Hamlet - Green gain RIGHT
Town Close - Green gain RIGHT
Wensum - Green hold RIGHT
University - Lab gain RIGHT
Not bad ...
Malbrook Man:
Lab HOLD Crome, Catton Grove - right, wrong
Lab GAIN Mile Cross, Lakenham, University - right, wrong, right
Con GAIN Bowthorpe, Eaton - right, wrong
Green HOLD Nelson, Wensum - right, right
Green GAIN Mancroft, Town Close, Thorpe Hamlet - right, right, right
Sewell - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
New Council: Lab 16, Green 13, Con 5, LD 4 - with one seat (Sewell) that could go anyway.
!!!!
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