A prolific reader of my blog, Comrade, left a short but interesting comment on my last post. He, once a Labour councillor left to join the LibDems, urged us to "bring on" the county elections. It made me think about who had most to gain, or lose, from that poll.
First thing to note is that it is not likely to be on the same day as a General Election and thus a much lower turnout may hit some majorities that were previously very high. And also being on the same day as the Euro elections may bring the right-wing vote out in much greater force. However, the statistics show some worries for all the parties.
In terms of marginal seats (those with a majority of less than 5%), the Tories hold 8 (out of 46), Labour have 5 (out of 22) and the LibDems have 6 (out of 14) - hence nearly half of the LibDem county group are vulnerable on quite small swings. Melton Constable has a LibDem majority of 0.02% (yes, a single vote) and the Tories in North Norfolk will be gunning for electoral revenge there. Kings Lynn South is held by the LibDems by 0.3% and East Depwade by 0.4% - both in areas with big swings back to the Tories in recent years. Clavering had a LibDem majority of 3% but the Tories won that back in a by-election last year so it may be difficult to hold. I would imagine at this stage that all four seats would be very difficult for them to hold. The LibDems also have a 0.6% majority in Aylsham (but a much better majority at the recent by-election) and a 2% lead in Cromer and both would be vulnerable to a Cameron surge. If the Tories do very well on polling day then Reepham (LibDem maj 7%) could also be at risk. Other LibDem seats should fare better - despite a fairly low 9% majority in Fakenham, the party are odds on to hold it. Their 22% majority in Eaton will look more vulnerable given the strides made by the Tories at City level, and a similar 22% majority in Thorpe Hamlet - their second safest seat - is under threat from the rampant Norwich Green Party who took the identical ward by 501 votes at City level.
Labour's urban outposts in Norfolk will face the test of a resurgant Tory Party next year as well. Great Yarmouth will see some pretty close fights - the semi-rural Lothingland Division has a Labour majority of just 0.5% for example. Thetford East (Labour maj 0.7%), Dereham South (Labour maj 3%), Caister (Labour maj 5%) and Gaywood North & Central (Labour maj 3%) would all become Tory seats based upon district results, let alone the opinion polls. And the news becomes worse for Labour - their 6% majority in Sprowston and 8% lead in Gaywood South (Kings Lynn) would currently both be wiped out. Breydon in Great Yarmouth had a Labour lead of 15% in 2005 and will certainly be top of the Great Yarmouth Tories hitlist, especially if Brandon Lewis is to be their next MP. It may even get worse than that, because a lot of very, very safe Labour seats in Norwich will also come into play on a low turnout. A 25% lead in Bowthorpe and a 22% lead in Catton Grove may also disappear if recent City elections are repeated and gains could be made by the Tories. Labour also hold seats in Lakenham, Mancroft and Wensum where the LibDems and Greens have since made City gains. Labour's county group could easily be reduced from 22 to 15 on a small swing back to the Tories and down to 10 if things go badly in Norwich.
The Greens, of course, start from a low base and should gain seats from Labour this time around. Town Close, despite the by-election win, won't be a guaranteed hold but Nelson should be pretty safe territory for them.
The Tories have most at risk, having most seats and an overall majority on the council - it would take just the loss of 4 seats for our overall majority to go. The LibDems will be looking no doubt at Long Stratton (Con maj 2%) and Diss (Con maj 4%) but given the massive Tory strides in South Norfolk, neither look vulnerable at the moment. They may rather fancy their chances in North Norfolk wheer the Tories currently lead by 4% in both Wells and Mundesley. On the outside, the LibDems may also choose to mount a strong challenge in Hellesdon (Con maj 8%) and Hoveton (Con maj 7%) but at the moment both look beyond their reach. Labour really have very few opportunities to make gains from the Tories - even a 0.7% Tory majority in the Broadland seat of Woodside looks a bit far fetched. Gorleston (Con maj 3%), Acle (Con maj 10%) and Old Catton (Con maj 7%) may all get Labour going but I don't think they stand a chance in those wards either.
So who are the likely winners and losers from this? The Tories look pretty secure and have plenty of chances to gains seats from both Labour and the LibDems. Few Tory Councillors will even be challenged by Labour, although a coupel of seats may have strong LibDem campaigns. I suspect we'll talking about the size of the Tory majority rather than if there will be one! The Labour Party pretty much face meltdown and their urban bases look set to fall; facing a Tory onslaught in GY, KL and Norwich (plus the Greens in Norwich too) they could be squeezed from all sides and could fall to third. The party with the biggest risk is the LibDems; on a good day they could hold seats and make a few gains, but they haven't had many good days recently. With the Greens stealing their clothes in Norwich and the rampant Tories in the county they could as easily be fighting the Greens for third place on county and they could fighting Labour for second. At the moment, I wouldn't want to be a LibDem strategist - over-stretch could cost them seats.
So that's it as I see it at the moment; things could change (and do) in politics) but I have tried to be honest. I'll let you guess the seats, but currently I think we'll see 54 Conservatives, 14 LibDems, 11 Labour and 5 Greens - an overall majority of 24 for the Tories.
The Tories have this election to win, Labour have it to lose ... but its the LibDems who should most fear the ballot box at the moment!
Showing posts with label local elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label local elections. Show all posts
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Saturday, April 05, 2008
UPDATED: City Elections: Nominations revealed
Yesterday was the last day to get your nomination paper in for the City elections. You can get a full run down here but I thought I'd just summerise the situation. The main 4 parties are contesting every seat - Conservative, Labour, Green and LibDems - plus there's UKIP in Lakenham and Norwich-over-the-Water in Sewell.
In terms of interesting candidates;
For the LibDems its all change; the talented Gordon Dean is relgated to an absolute thrashing in Catton Grove, whilst his former Councillor Colleague Chris Thomas takes on Mile Cross - the LibDems say this indicates how seriously they are taking the ward, but I didn't know Chris was that keen on getting back on the council. Nelson stalwart David Fairbairn now ends up defending Hereward's old patch in Lakenham, whilst Judith Lubbock takes on Eaton. Interestingly former Heathersett Councillor Jackie Sutton - who lost her seat in the South Norfolk Tory landslide of 07 - reappears as candidate for ultra-marginal Thorpe Hamlet. Lastly I suppose is the decision of another former Councillor, Ian Williams, to take on Sewell. The NOTWP candidate will I'm sure shake this seat up and any party who effectivly harnesses the anti-Labour vote may do well. Williams has been, in his (and my) time, a formiddable candidate and this could now be the ward to watch.
Labour have had an easier time of candidate selection. Their sitting Councillors have a tough time - Mick Banham in Sewell, Brenda Ferris in Bowthorpe and Julie Westmacott in Catton Grove all have the fights of their lives. Deborah Gilwahi (Mile Cross), Brenda Arthur (University) and Bob Sanderson (Lakenham) all hope to step into LibDem shoes and the hopes of the party will essentially rest upon their shoulders. Dvaid Bradford, a real champion, stands again for Crome. The most interesting candidate in many ways is Steph Clark - standing in Wensum - incidentally standing against a LibDem called Brian Clark. Labour feel they have a real chance here and have certainly done a lot of work. And, of course, we have to mention the gallant Phil Taylor who is leading the Labour chances in Eaton.
The Greens have a full slate again; one switch is being made with Adrian Holmes leaving Wensum and seeking election in Mancroft leaving his old ward to UEA student Ruth Makoff. There are also some relationship candidates this time. Adrian Ramsay's girlfriend is their candidate in Bowthorpe and Janet Bearman's husband is standing in Eaton. Stop-the-War campaigner Peter Offord leads their charge in ultra-marginal Thorpe Hamlet. In Town Close the unknown Samir Jeraj is standing (more of this later).
Please feel free to post your predictions
In terms of interesting candidates;
For the LibDems its all change; the talented Gordon Dean is relgated to an absolute thrashing in Catton Grove, whilst his former Councillor Colleague Chris Thomas takes on Mile Cross - the LibDems say this indicates how seriously they are taking the ward, but I didn't know Chris was that keen on getting back on the council. Nelson stalwart David Fairbairn now ends up defending Hereward's old patch in Lakenham, whilst Judith Lubbock takes on Eaton. Interestingly former Heathersett Councillor Jackie Sutton - who lost her seat in the South Norfolk Tory landslide of 07 - reappears as candidate for ultra-marginal Thorpe Hamlet. Lastly I suppose is the decision of another former Councillor, Ian Williams, to take on Sewell. The NOTWP candidate will I'm sure shake this seat up and any party who effectivly harnesses the anti-Labour vote may do well. Williams has been, in his (and my) time, a formiddable candidate and this could now be the ward to watch.
Labour have had an easier time of candidate selection. Their sitting Councillors have a tough time - Mick Banham in Sewell, Brenda Ferris in Bowthorpe and Julie Westmacott in Catton Grove all have the fights of their lives. Deborah Gilwahi (Mile Cross), Brenda Arthur (University) and Bob Sanderson (Lakenham) all hope to step into LibDem shoes and the hopes of the party will essentially rest upon their shoulders. Dvaid Bradford, a real champion, stands again for Crome. The most interesting candidate in many ways is Steph Clark - standing in Wensum - incidentally standing against a LibDem called Brian Clark. Labour feel they have a real chance here and have certainly done a lot of work. And, of course, we have to mention the gallant Phil Taylor who is leading the Labour chances in Eaton.
The Greens have a full slate again; one switch is being made with Adrian Holmes leaving Wensum and seeking election in Mancroft leaving his old ward to UEA student Ruth Makoff. There are also some relationship candidates this time. Adrian Ramsay's girlfriend is their candidate in Bowthorpe and Janet Bearman's husband is standing in Eaton. Stop-the-War campaigner Peter Offord leads their charge in ultra-marginal Thorpe Hamlet. In Town Close the unknown Samir Jeraj is standing (more of this later).
Please feel free to post your predictions
Friday, March 28, 2008
Tories announce local poll candidates
The Norwich Conservatives have announced the 13 candidates who will contest the local elections on 1st May, ensuring that everybody in the City has the chance to vote for a Conservative candidate.
Conservative Group Leader Cllr Antony Little said: "Everyone in the City now has a chance to vote for a hard working, common sense ConservativeCouncillor who will put tackling anti-social behaviour, cleaning up the streets and fighting for our Post Offices at the heart of their work."
"The Conservatives are a very different political party for Norwich - the only party that spoke up against the millions wasted on the unitary project and the only party that voted to freeze council tax levels this year."
"Last year we won the same number of wards as the LibDems and gained as many seats as the Greens. Every year we win more votes and more Councillors. This year could be crucial, and every new Conservative Councillor will mean we have a better chance of a value-for-money council that puts residents first."
The full list of candidates is:
Bowthorpe - Niki George
Catton Grove - John Fisher
Crome - Ernie Horth
Eaton - Niall Baxter
Lakenham - Eileen Wyatt
Mancroft - Andrew Wiltshire
Mile Cross - Clive Smith
Nelson - Malcolm Chamberlin
Sewell - David Mackie
Thorpe Hamlet - Matthew Davison
Town Close - Tak Man Li
University - Paul Wells
Wensum - Mike Gillespie
Conservative Group Leader Cllr Antony Little said: "Everyone in the City now has a chance to vote for a hard working, common sense ConservativeCouncillor who will put tackling anti-social behaviour, cleaning up the streets and fighting for our Post Offices at the heart of their work."
"The Conservatives are a very different political party for Norwich - the only party that spoke up against the millions wasted on the unitary project and the only party that voted to freeze council tax levels this year."
"Last year we won the same number of wards as the LibDems and gained as many seats as the Greens. Every year we win more votes and more Councillors. This year could be crucial, and every new Conservative Councillor will mean we have a better chance of a value-for-money council that puts residents first."
The full list of candidates is:
Bowthorpe - Niki George
Catton Grove - John Fisher
Crome - Ernie Horth
Eaton - Niall Baxter
Lakenham - Eileen Wyatt
Mancroft - Andrew Wiltshire
Mile Cross - Clive Smith
Nelson - Malcolm Chamberlin
Sewell - David Mackie
Thorpe Hamlet - Matthew Davison
Town Close - Tak Man Li
University - Paul Wells
Wensum - Mike Gillespie
Friday, July 27, 2007
It's a done deal
The EDP reports this morning that a senior source in Whitehall says that the Greater Norwich bid is now a done deal. Nothing we, or the public, can say will stop this now. Apparently everything from Taverham in the North to Long Stratton in the South is about to come under City Hall control. A few points, randomly and in no particular order, spring to mind:
This is the most undemocratic and political move ever by a British government towards a faction of local government, outstripping even the 1974 reorganisaion. I think a lot of people who oppose this move will punish Labour at the polls.
If they do that the irony is, as suggested by the EDP, that the Tories could just form a majority administration in the City. I'm sure that will thrill Morph, Read, Ramsay, Cooke and all the other unitary cheerleaders who did this to get away from Conservative control!
It will mean massive ward boundary changes. I think wards ought to get smaller and that we should have 2 member divisions with bi-annual elections, but anything could now happen.
Broadland and South Norfolk become untennable as districts. What do they do now?
And one final thought - do the Leaders of Norfolk, South Norfolk and Broadland now accept the fait accompi and work towards getting a good deal in the breakup of the councils or do they die in a ditch for their residents and risk letting Labour set the post-unitary agenda? I personally don't think that the residents would accept anything short of death-in-action over this. We must oppose this to the bitter end - and then win the unitary poll.
This is the most undemocratic and political move ever by a British government towards a faction of local government, outstripping even the 1974 reorganisaion. I think a lot of people who oppose this move will punish Labour at the polls.
If they do that the irony is, as suggested by the EDP, that the Tories could just form a majority administration in the City. I'm sure that will thrill Morph, Read, Ramsay, Cooke and all the other unitary cheerleaders who did this to get away from Conservative control!
It will mean massive ward boundary changes. I think wards ought to get smaller and that we should have 2 member divisions with bi-annual elections, but anything could now happen.
Broadland and South Norfolk become untennable as districts. What do they do now?
And one final thought - do the Leaders of Norfolk, South Norfolk and Broadland now accept the fait accompi and work towards getting a good deal in the breakup of the councils or do they die in a ditch for their residents and risk letting Labour set the post-unitary agenda? I personally don't think that the residents would accept anything short of death-in-action over this. We must oppose this to the bitter end - and then win the unitary poll.
Monday, May 14, 2007
How one vote for Eileen Wyatt changed politics in Norwich
We had a friend round for dinner tonight and after a little discussion about the local election results it soon became clear that she may well have swung the whole poll in Norwich - and altered political history too.
You see, she did live in Thorpe Hamlet but very recently moved to Town Close. On the last day that it was legally possible to do so, she changed the electoral roll and did so in order to vote for Conservative candidate Eileen Wyatt, whom she had met and liked, despite normally being a Green Party voter.
Eileen came third and polled 620 votes - a historic high for the Tories in Town Close but a little away from winning. However, in Thorpe Hamlet the Greens lost by one vote and thus failed to become the country's first Green opposition party and thus Ramsay failed to become the first Green Leader of the Opposition.
When this dawned upon us both tonight it really made us think about the importance of a single vote in our democracy. Such tiny and insignificant acts have a huge part to play in shaping our democracy.
So as Cllr Ramsay settles back into the job of not being Leader of the Opposition, he might well curse Eileen Wyatt - a Tory candidate in another ward - who robbed him of the job he wanted!
(*** ps. I know everyone can find a case like this when it goes to a single vote - the EDP recently carried the story of a voter who was planning to vote Green but switched to the LibDems after being bombarded with Green leaflets which he thought was wasteful. But it's still good fun!)
(*** pps. My favourite random vote of the year goes to a lady whom I met when she was on Initial Teacher Training. She spent just a few hours in my company about three years ago - and rewarded the Conservative Party (in this case, Eve Collishaw) with her vote because I was kind to her.)
You see, she did live in Thorpe Hamlet but very recently moved to Town Close. On the last day that it was legally possible to do so, she changed the electoral roll and did so in order to vote for Conservative candidate Eileen Wyatt, whom she had met and liked, despite normally being a Green Party voter.
Eileen came third and polled 620 votes - a historic high for the Tories in Town Close but a little away from winning. However, in Thorpe Hamlet the Greens lost by one vote and thus failed to become the country's first Green opposition party and thus Ramsay failed to become the first Green Leader of the Opposition.
When this dawned upon us both tonight it really made us think about the importance of a single vote in our democracy. Such tiny and insignificant acts have a huge part to play in shaping our democracy.
So as Cllr Ramsay settles back into the job of not being Leader of the Opposition, he might well curse Eileen Wyatt - a Tory candidate in another ward - who robbed him of the job he wanted!
(*** ps. I know everyone can find a case like this when it goes to a single vote - the EDP recently carried the story of a voter who was planning to vote Green but switched to the LibDems after being bombarded with Green leaflets which he thought was wasteful. But it's still good fun!)
(*** pps. My favourite random vote of the year goes to a lady whom I met when she was on Initial Teacher Training. She spent just a few hours in my company about three years ago - and rewarded the Conservative Party (in this case, Eve Collishaw) with her vote because I was kind to her.)
Monday, May 07, 2007
The Low Expectations of the Norwich LibDems
The Norwich LibDems are celebrating still being the opposition party on the council here and their PPC is looking on the bright side here.
The Council Group seems to have very low expectations of themselves whilst at least the PPC has the ability to (badly) spin the result. I shall post more on this later.
The Council Group seems to have very low expectations of themselves whilst at least the PPC has the ability to (badly) spin the result. I shall post more on this later.
Friday, May 04, 2007
The Result
I'm too tired to set out all my thoughts on this, but here are the results ... Jeremy Hooke, the LibDem who won Thorpe Hamlet by 1 vote last night, stood between me and correctly predicting the whole election!
Bowthorpe - Con GAIN from Labour - Tory John Wyatt takes this traditionally safe Labour seat from backbencher Chrissie Rumsby
Catton Grove - Con hold - Eve Collishaw extends her majority following Labour's negative campaign
Crome - Lab hold - Alan Waters hold off a late challenge from the Tories and does so by some margin
Lakenham - Lab hold - Keith Driver demonstrates his popularity in the ward by stopping a LibDem campaign which looked unstopable
Mancroft - Green hold - An easy win for new boy Tom Dylan, replacing one-year-wonder Steve Altman.
Mile Cross - Lab hold - The rumours of Steve Morphew's political death were rather over-exaggerated ... an easy 300 vote win that will make the LibDems wonder why they bothered.
Nelson - Green hold - Adrian Ramsay just takes the piss with the size of his majority.
Sewell - Lab hold - Julie B-C wins again, helped by the lack of a Norwich-over-the-water candidate. Is this a future Green target?
Thorpe Hamlet - LibDem hold - Thank god Jeremy voted for himself.
Town Close - Green GAIN from LibDem - Long serving Councillor Chris Thomas was left by his party to be slaughtered here - and slaughtered he was.
University - Lab hold - Lord Mayor designate Roy Blower puts this ward as Labour's safest. My word how things have changed in just a few years!
Wensum - Green hold - I just wonder if Rupert gets annoyed that Adrian's is bigger than his (talking majorities, of course...)
Norwich City Council:
Labour 15 (-1)
LibDems 11 (-1)
Greens 10 (+1)
Cons 3 (+1)
More over the weekend!
Bowthorpe - Con GAIN from Labour - Tory John Wyatt takes this traditionally safe Labour seat from backbencher Chrissie Rumsby
Catton Grove - Con hold - Eve Collishaw extends her majority following Labour's negative campaign
Crome - Lab hold - Alan Waters hold off a late challenge from the Tories and does so by some margin
Lakenham - Lab hold - Keith Driver demonstrates his popularity in the ward by stopping a LibDem campaign which looked unstopable
Mancroft - Green hold - An easy win for new boy Tom Dylan, replacing one-year-wonder Steve Altman.
Mile Cross - Lab hold - The rumours of Steve Morphew's political death were rather over-exaggerated ... an easy 300 vote win that will make the LibDems wonder why they bothered.
Nelson - Green hold - Adrian Ramsay just takes the piss with the size of his majority.
Sewell - Lab hold - Julie B-C wins again, helped by the lack of a Norwich-over-the-water candidate. Is this a future Green target?
Thorpe Hamlet - LibDem hold - Thank god Jeremy voted for himself.
Town Close - Green GAIN from LibDem - Long serving Councillor Chris Thomas was left by his party to be slaughtered here - and slaughtered he was.
University - Lab hold - Lord Mayor designate Roy Blower puts this ward as Labour's safest. My word how things have changed in just a few years!
Wensum - Green hold - I just wonder if Rupert gets annoyed that Adrian's is bigger than his (talking majorities, of course...)
Norwich City Council:
Labour 15 (-1)
LibDems 11 (-1)
Greens 10 (+1)
Cons 3 (+1)
More over the weekend!
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Vote Conservative today
Norwich has a chance to vote for something completely different today. A chance to reject Labour's negative campaign attacks, the LibDems fiscal incompetence and the Green's fantasy world politics.
A chance to vote for a party that believes in good quality public services at a vlaue-for-money cost.
A chance to vote for a party that is environmental in outlook.
A chance to vote for a party that is serious about cleaning up our neighbourhoods.
A chance to vote for a party that really will tackle anti-social behaviour.
So don't leave the act of participation in our democracy to somebody else - there is a difference between the parties and your vote will count!
Labour, LibDems and the Greens want to raise your tax, the Conservatives will cut it.
Labour, LibDems and the Greens want to shut off the City Centre, the Conservatives will free up our roads and support public transport.
Labour, LibDems and the Greens would waste millions on local government reorganisation, the Conservatives would put that money straight into local services.
Don't say your vote doesn't matter - it does.
Norwich matters to you, and it matters to us.
So take a few moments today ... and vote Conservative.
A chance to vote for a party that believes in good quality public services at a vlaue-for-money cost.
A chance to vote for a party that is environmental in outlook.
A chance to vote for a party that is serious about cleaning up our neighbourhoods.
A chance to vote for a party that really will tackle anti-social behaviour.
So don't leave the act of participation in our democracy to somebody else - there is a difference between the parties and your vote will count!
Labour, LibDems and the Greens want to raise your tax, the Conservatives will cut it.
Labour, LibDems and the Greens want to shut off the City Centre, the Conservatives will free up our roads and support public transport.
Labour, LibDems and the Greens would waste millions on local government reorganisation, the Conservatives would put that money straight into local services.
Don't say your vote doesn't matter - it does.
Norwich matters to you, and it matters to us.
So take a few moments today ... and vote Conservative.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Manifesto Launch
Just in case you didn't see the excellent coverage of our City Manifesto in the Evening News (who are, for the record, handling these elections quite well) then please do take a look on our Norwich Conservatives site where it can be downloaded in full, or you can read part of my speech to the party.
One elector - from Lakenham - rang to say that having read three manifesto documents (apparently he couldn't find Labour's!) he was voting Tory because ours made most sense. *Blush*
One elector - from Lakenham - rang to say that having read three manifesto documents (apparently he couldn't find Labour's!) he was voting Tory because ours made most sense. *Blush*
The Glamerous Life of the Election Agent
Apart from holidng down a full time job, I have in the last 3 nights spent my time putting up posters, delivering leaflets, bundling up for deliverers, canvassing, printing leaflets, writing to electors and sending e-mails.
But, In the words of a certain former PM, "I'm enjoying this!"
But, In the words of a certain former PM, "I'm enjoying this!"
Sunday, April 15, 2007
What's the point of a poster?
Local bloggers - here and here - have today been debating the role of posters in a party political campaign. I thought I'd add my own musings.
Posters take a lot of effort to put together and then display around the constituency. They cost a lot of money but they also take a lot of time to maintain. They get ripped down, fall down and (sometimes) stolen. So why do we do it then?
In my ten years of being involved in politics I've never met a single person who was convinced to vote by a poster or who had switched their vote because of a poster. Not a single time have I heard, "I was going to vote Labour until I saw your Tory posters so now I'm switching."
Do they create the "big mo'" then? Well, no. A lot of posters can equal a lot of support but for every house with a poster there are a hundred that do not - and those hundred have votes too. There is one house in Norwich with 4 LibDem posters on it - which represent a single elector. Similarly there are giant posters in fields in Norfolk that do not represent a single Tory voter! People are not stupid - parties even sometimes run poster campaigns to hide the lack of a real campaign! Reading Martin Bell's biography recently there was an interesting story. Put off bv vast numbers of "Hamilton" posters around Tatton, Bell was told by one aid: "Yes, but trees and fields cannot vote." There are lots of LibDem posters in University Ward - they still ain't gonna win it!
Posters have the ability to make a party look stupid. If they get damaged or grafittied then it is a very public attack on that party. What's more those silly "Winning Here" ones - in areas where that party doesn't win - makes politicans look slightly deceitful.
And yes, I do display a poster. Why? Because it makes me feel good - and vaguely annoys my neighbours. It won't win me any votes, it'll be stolen or torn down a few times. But I'll keep it up because it is a public statement about my politics and who I am. It is a great part of the British electoral tradition. Silly, but I'll still do it ... for no decent reason either.
Posters take a lot of effort to put together and then display around the constituency. They cost a lot of money but they also take a lot of time to maintain. They get ripped down, fall down and (sometimes) stolen. So why do we do it then?
In my ten years of being involved in politics I've never met a single person who was convinced to vote by a poster or who had switched their vote because of a poster. Not a single time have I heard, "I was going to vote Labour until I saw your Tory posters so now I'm switching."
Do they create the "big mo'" then? Well, no. A lot of posters can equal a lot of support but for every house with a poster there are a hundred that do not - and those hundred have votes too. There is one house in Norwich with 4 LibDem posters on it - which represent a single elector. Similarly there are giant posters in fields in Norfolk that do not represent a single Tory voter! People are not stupid - parties even sometimes run poster campaigns to hide the lack of a real campaign! Reading Martin Bell's biography recently there was an interesting story. Put off bv vast numbers of "Hamilton" posters around Tatton, Bell was told by one aid: "Yes, but trees and fields cannot vote." There are lots of LibDem posters in University Ward - they still ain't gonna win it!
Posters have the ability to make a party look stupid. If they get damaged or grafittied then it is a very public attack on that party. What's more those silly "Winning Here" ones - in areas where that party doesn't win - makes politicans look slightly deceitful.
And yes, I do display a poster. Why? Because it makes me feel good - and vaguely annoys my neighbours. It won't win me any votes, it'll be stolen or torn down a few times. But I'll keep it up because it is a public statement about my politics and who I am. It is a great part of the British electoral tradition. Silly, but I'll still do it ... for no decent reason either.
Friday, April 13, 2007
A burning issue?
According to today's EEN, the Green Party are plotting to ban the use of goldfish as prizes at funfairs et al held on council property.
What a shame that the Greens, who have worked so hard to make themselves seem like an alternative council leadership, now choose to go down the route of bonkers politics - a roadmap normally held by the LibDems.
Or have I got this totally wrong? Please help me out here.
Is the sale or use of goldfish a major political issue? Nobody has mentioned it on the doorsteps yet the Greens are making headlines about it.
Forget the Quality Bus Partnership, the Unitary Bid, affordable housing, council tax levels, combating anti-social behaviour or improving recycling - we know what will be crossing the Chief Executive's desk on the first day of a Green-led City Council.
I can only assume that this was a silly publicity stunt by the Greens ... unless blog readers put me right on this.
What a shame that the Greens, who have worked so hard to make themselves seem like an alternative council leadership, now choose to go down the route of bonkers politics - a roadmap normally held by the LibDems.
Or have I got this totally wrong? Please help me out here.
Is the sale or use of goldfish a major political issue? Nobody has mentioned it on the doorsteps yet the Greens are making headlines about it.
Forget the Quality Bus Partnership, the Unitary Bid, affordable housing, council tax levels, combating anti-social behaviour or improving recycling - we know what will be crossing the Chief Executive's desk on the first day of a Green-led City Council.
I can only assume that this was a silly publicity stunt by the Greens ... unless blog readers put me right on this.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Candidates 2007 - Part I
Following last year's report, which caused some ripples in political circles, I have asked a friend to pen a few thoughts on the candidates standing this year. This is not my work, not my views and not written by a Conservative supporter. If you are easily offended, turn away now - and I promise this is totally unedited (apart from spelling, tut tut)! All comments welcome.
Bowthorpe:
Blair Campbell (Green) is the surprise nomination this year, hailing from the trendy new part of Three Score. His nomination is likely to annoy the Tories who are now treating Three Score like some kind of heartland. The Greens are likely to move well in front of the LibDems this year. Backbench Labour Councillor Chrissie Rumsby is seeking re-election but is a fairly mute and useless political operator. Not particularly well liked in the area and not very active either - she'll be relying on votes in Earlham and not standing against Antony Little. Tory candidate John Wyatt is Little's right-hand man and has certainly earnt his spurs in the ward but lacks his colleagues popular appeal. However the Tory "Leader" has been active enough locally to pass his support on. LibDem Francis McIvor won't make much of an impact. I predict a Conservative Gain, but with a smaller majority than last year.
Lakenham:
An interesting fight this year with the 4 main parties and UKIP standing for election. Popular Labour Councillor Keith Driver is standing for re-election, but with the Labour majority cut to 15 votes last year this is a seat on a knife-edge. Will Driver's work be enough to balance out his party's disasterous standing in the opinion polls. The reason to be worried is that last year's LibDem candidate has been re-deployed elsewhere and now Gordon Dean is the man on the frontline - Dean was a City Councillor for many years and a frontbench Transport spokesman. He is considered to be one of the LibDems best campaigners and shows they are serious about winning the seat. There are new candidates for the Greens, Jacqui McCarney, and for the Tories, Carrie Chandler. But they will be as out of the race as UKIP man Steve Emmins. This is a LibDem-Labour blood fight to the finish. Prediction: Too close to call, but if forced to say I'd go for a narrow Labour hold.
Nelson:
This ward is becoming predictably boring at the moment with the Green majority stretching further out at each new poll. The only change here - LibDem Fairbairn, Labour Bartram and Green Ramsay are standing again - is with the Tory candidate Malcolm Chamberlin, who claims that have coined the phrase "golden triangle" whilst working as an archant media man. All three opposition parties here are putting in the footwork but you would be insane to bet against Ramsay getting a four figure majority. LibDems to hold onto second place - just - but all three loser parties getting bunched up this time.
Sewell:
I had to comment on this is the first round of reviews because of the lack of a Norwich-over-the-Water candidate. What does this mean for the big vote they got in 2006? If the Greens had done more work here earlier they could have benefited from the voter fall-out, but I fear Penny Killingbeck may have to settle for second. The LibDems are standing former University councillor and media hate figure Ian Williams. Mr Williams is used to having dust-ups with other parties in the letters page of the Evening News but that combative spirit often makes him a good candidate. The Tories are standing Tony Landamore and it is surprising they don't do better here. Prediction: Labour hold, increased majority due to no NOTWP candidate.
Bowthorpe:
Blair Campbell (Green) is the surprise nomination this year, hailing from the trendy new part of Three Score. His nomination is likely to annoy the Tories who are now treating Three Score like some kind of heartland. The Greens are likely to move well in front of the LibDems this year. Backbench Labour Councillor Chrissie Rumsby is seeking re-election but is a fairly mute and useless political operator. Not particularly well liked in the area and not very active either - she'll be relying on votes in Earlham and not standing against Antony Little. Tory candidate John Wyatt is Little's right-hand man and has certainly earnt his spurs in the ward but lacks his colleagues popular appeal. However the Tory "Leader" has been active enough locally to pass his support on. LibDem Francis McIvor won't make much of an impact. I predict a Conservative Gain, but with a smaller majority than last year.
Lakenham:
An interesting fight this year with the 4 main parties and UKIP standing for election. Popular Labour Councillor Keith Driver is standing for re-election, but with the Labour majority cut to 15 votes last year this is a seat on a knife-edge. Will Driver's work be enough to balance out his party's disasterous standing in the opinion polls. The reason to be worried is that last year's LibDem candidate has been re-deployed elsewhere and now Gordon Dean is the man on the frontline - Dean was a City Councillor for many years and a frontbench Transport spokesman. He is considered to be one of the LibDems best campaigners and shows they are serious about winning the seat. There are new candidates for the Greens, Jacqui McCarney, and for the Tories, Carrie Chandler. But they will be as out of the race as UKIP man Steve Emmins. This is a LibDem-Labour blood fight to the finish. Prediction: Too close to call, but if forced to say I'd go for a narrow Labour hold.
Nelson:
This ward is becoming predictably boring at the moment with the Green majority stretching further out at each new poll. The only change here - LibDem Fairbairn, Labour Bartram and Green Ramsay are standing again - is with the Tory candidate Malcolm Chamberlin, who claims that have coined the phrase "golden triangle" whilst working as an archant media man. All three opposition parties here are putting in the footwork but you would be insane to bet against Ramsay getting a four figure majority. LibDems to hold onto second place - just - but all three loser parties getting bunched up this time.
Sewell:
I had to comment on this is the first round of reviews because of the lack of a Norwich-over-the-Water candidate. What does this mean for the big vote they got in 2006? If the Greens had done more work here earlier they could have benefited from the voter fall-out, but I fear Penny Killingbeck may have to settle for second. The LibDems are standing former University councillor and media hate figure Ian Williams. Mr Williams is used to having dust-ups with other parties in the letters page of the Evening News but that combative spirit often makes him a good candidate. The Tories are standing Tony Landamore and it is surprising they don't do better here. Prediction: Labour hold, increased majority due to no NOTWP candidate.
A Full Day's Campaigning
Phew! I have been on the streets since 9am this morning and my feet need some TLC tonight! This morning I was out with a team on the streets of Eaton, delivering leaflets and talking to local people about the issues that are concerning them. Then, after a rather pleasant family lunch, we went back out onto the streets where there seemed to be fewer people to talk to. This evening it was a canvassing session in Catton Grove. It seems to be going really well there - the surprise is person after person saying that we are the only party campaigning and certainly the only party to call. Are Labour doing anything or are they just doing it quietly? If so, it is so quiet the voters aren't hearing it either! Off for a bath now...
UKIP - hypocrites or just not very bright?
UKIP in Norwich may be celebrating their launch of three candidates for the 3rd May poll (out of a total possible thirteen), but they don't seem to have thought through their campaign very well.
There is a lovely glossy UKIP leaflet doing the rounds at the moment ... the problem? It is printed in Germany.
Not very patriotic - and persumably access to cheap German printers is something UKIP would want to deny other people.
UKIP are something of a joke and if this is the standard of their campaign, I don't think any party has too much to fear!
There is a lovely glossy UKIP leaflet doing the rounds at the moment ... the problem? It is printed in Germany.
Not very patriotic - and persumably access to cheap German printers is something UKIP would want to deny other people.
UKIP are something of a joke and if this is the standard of their campaign, I don't think any party has too much to fear!
A Family Easter
I can't remember the last time I had the whole of Easter (well, Good Friday, Easter Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday) off but it certainly was fun. We are well advnaced with the election so I stood the troops down this year for a bit of R&R - which I understand was both well earned and well enjoyed in all quaters!
Friday morning Emily was off on an Easter Egg Hunt - and loved every minute of it! She is turning into quite a chatterbox (god knows where she gets that from!) and replayed her finds all day. We were surprised she could do it - the hunt was clearly too easy! In the afternoon we were with family for a big get-together - great fun.
Saturday was a very relaxed campainging day - more of a saunter round than hard core campaigning I feel! In the morning I joined Eve Collishaw's campaign team in Catton Grove to visit some of the many new build properties in the ward - an amazing array of teething problem queries were raised, and Eve is getting to grips with those today. In the afternoon we canvassed in Chapel Break. I am still surprised that, given that Labour polled over 900 votes last year, we meet so few people who are out-and-out Labour voters. Are they lying, hiding or just totally unsure?
Easter Sunday was spent at my parents place in London and at a quite fantastic BBQ at my brother's house. It made a great change from the normal turkey fare and the weather was superb. Emily, of course, ended up soaked playing with cousin Francis and I have to say that the pimms punch wasn't bad either ;-)
I hope you all had a great Eastertime too!
Friday morning Emily was off on an Easter Egg Hunt - and loved every minute of it! She is turning into quite a chatterbox (god knows where she gets that from!) and replayed her finds all day. We were surprised she could do it - the hunt was clearly too easy! In the afternoon we were with family for a big get-together - great fun.
Saturday was a very relaxed campainging day - more of a saunter round than hard core campaigning I feel! In the morning I joined Eve Collishaw's campaign team in Catton Grove to visit some of the many new build properties in the ward - an amazing array of teething problem queries were raised, and Eve is getting to grips with those today. In the afternoon we canvassed in Chapel Break. I am still surprised that, given that Labour polled over 900 votes last year, we meet so few people who are out-and-out Labour voters. Are they lying, hiding or just totally unsure?
Easter Sunday was spent at my parents place in London and at a quite fantastic BBQ at my brother's house. It made a great change from the normal turkey fare and the weather was superb. Emily, of course, ended up soaked playing with cousin Francis and I have to say that the pimms punch wasn't bad either ;-)
I hope you all had a great Eastertime too!
Monday, March 12, 2007
3rd May just keeps getting nearer
If you have local elections by thirds (and a county poll in the fourth) then you may just feel as if elections never stop. I taught this in my A Level politics class today and, for all the expense and hassle of yearly elections, I cannot help by conclude that it keeps our campaigning sharp, focused and does provide good grassroots democracy (even if only a third of people vote!).
This evening I spent my time at various campaign meetings for wards in Norwich, getting paperwork sorted and planning campaign timetables and the like. We have a fantastic line up of candidates this year and I am most impressed with the work that they have planned.
I met with Malcolm Chamberlin, who is set to stand for us in Nelson Ward. He is very much part of the community and is an ex-EEN journalist and presently an environmental campaigner. We talked of trees and the green policies of City Hall for a while. Malcolm even admitted he could have been a Green member, if he wasn't so staunchly conservative in his ways. He'll go down a treat on the doorsteps of the Golden Triangle. His wife, a local therapist, is also very well known. Malcolm speaks honestly at all times and really cares about the local area - he would, having lived in the community for over 27 years. There's a glint in this one's eye, like he knows all about the ward and its people ... he has a brilliant nose for campaigning (in a way that only a non-political campaigner can have) and it will be interesting to see how he does.
It was then on to see Niki George, our 21 year old candidate for Mancroft Ward. Niki knows the City back to front, working for the County Council but based at the Castle. He works to bring in investment into Norwich. He really seems to want to improve life in the City and to learn everything about campaigning to bring it about. Malcolm looks and sounds like a Councillor for his area, whereas Niki is just so enthusiastic and genuine about politics, campaigning and local people that it is quite refreshing. They are both working equally hard on putting together campaigns for their area for this May.
When Cameron says the party is changing, it isn't until you meet people on the ground that you realise how true this is. Malcolm and Niki both joined the party under David Cameron - as did Carrie Chandler in Lakenham and Paul Wells in Wensum - and have really transformed the way in which the local party operates.
The party used to attract very serious centre-right political operators - and, thank goodness, we still do - but the new members and candidates are far more community based and campaign orientated. Everyone is a conservative, but there is far more optimism and hope about who we are, as a City, and what we can achieve.
I trust people will see this and the result on May 3rd will be good!
This evening I spent my time at various campaign meetings for wards in Norwich, getting paperwork sorted and planning campaign timetables and the like. We have a fantastic line up of candidates this year and I am most impressed with the work that they have planned.
I met with Malcolm Chamberlin, who is set to stand for us in Nelson Ward. He is very much part of the community and is an ex-EEN journalist and presently an environmental campaigner. We talked of trees and the green policies of City Hall for a while. Malcolm even admitted he could have been a Green member, if he wasn't so staunchly conservative in his ways. He'll go down a treat on the doorsteps of the Golden Triangle. His wife, a local therapist, is also very well known. Malcolm speaks honestly at all times and really cares about the local area - he would, having lived in the community for over 27 years. There's a glint in this one's eye, like he knows all about the ward and its people ... he has a brilliant nose for campaigning (in a way that only a non-political campaigner can have) and it will be interesting to see how he does.
It was then on to see Niki George, our 21 year old candidate for Mancroft Ward. Niki knows the City back to front, working for the County Council but based at the Castle. He works to bring in investment into Norwich. He really seems to want to improve life in the City and to learn everything about campaigning to bring it about. Malcolm looks and sounds like a Councillor for his area, whereas Niki is just so enthusiastic and genuine about politics, campaigning and local people that it is quite refreshing. They are both working equally hard on putting together campaigns for their area for this May.
When Cameron says the party is changing, it isn't until you meet people on the ground that you realise how true this is. Malcolm and Niki both joined the party under David Cameron - as did Carrie Chandler in Lakenham and Paul Wells in Wensum - and have really transformed the way in which the local party operates.
The party used to attract very serious centre-right political operators - and, thank goodness, we still do - but the new members and candidates are far more community based and campaign orientated. Everyone is a conservative, but there is far more optimism and hope about who we are, as a City, and what we can achieve.
I trust people will see this and the result on May 3rd will be good!
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