Politics Conference: Post Match Analysis

Today I was in London with 21 (yes, count them, Mr Little, always 21 of them...) students at an A Level Politics Conference. Despite the hard wooden seats it was a good day, and we saw a decent array of politicans.

Caroline Spelman MP - Shadow Communities Secretary - Was nursing a cold and sounded like she did; not a great effort and seemed to stray off the point. Tried to make local government sexy and largely failed. Pity as I think she is usually very good at this sort of event; nearly the youngest speaker and didn't really connect.

Tony Benn - Former Labour cabinet minister - Always good value and the most engaging of the speakers. However he does always remind me of why I vote Conservative. Apparently the world economic slump is dealt with by taxing the rich and building council houses. Also, when questioned directly by the students about interventionism and when it works and doesn't, he failed to answer the question. Got a rousing cheer; couple of good jokes especially about being pleased to recieve a death threat because he knew he could still worry and irritate people. Benn is living more and more on his reputation I would say.

Don Foster MP - LibDem Culture Spokesman - Don was the surprise of the day for me. He was very articulate and answered the questions directly and honestly. However, he did blow a few radical student dogwhistles; plenty of stuff about Iraq and civil liberties to get them clapping. However he spoke in a very accessible way and came across as being very decent.

Alan Duncan MP - Conservative Shadow Leader of the House of Commons - The absolute star of the day; though mainly with good quips and a fantastic Tony Blair impression! He was entertaining and the only one who stuck to the A-Level script about the role of parliament. Best bit was during the questions; when a middle aged Politics teacher got up to challenge him about Thatcher's "dismantling of the welfare state", Duncan replied quick as a shot - "What nonsense and if this is the kind of thing you are teaching then heaven help us." Cue clapping.

Simon Hughes MP - they said he was LibDem President but I am fairly sure he isn't - seemed to have put on a great deal of wait. Spent ages talking about people who knew that had died and films he had seen. Oddest speech of all. Then went on to say that the LibDems got 25% at the last election (not true) and were on the verge of power. Students were actually laughing when he talked of a LibDem government. Very partisan speech and over shadowed by Foster.

Chris Bryany MP - Deputy Leader of the House of Commons - wanted to avoid all mention of his government so spoke for 20 minutes about how he became a Labour MP and the journey he took. It was very interesting - and also very emotional - especially regarding his sexuality and growing up living in Franco's Spain and then in South America. However, he good a rougher ride from the questions but stood up well and earned some respect for that. Came out as good as a government minister could.

Frank Dobson MP - Former Labour Health Secretary & London Mayoral Candidate - joined the other lefties in worrying about the rise of the far right. Did some good old fashioned banker-bashing and, to be fair, some government-bashing too - although he said the government was not really to blame for the economy. He got rugby tackled by a lady about now being able to get on the housing market - but Frank told her to rent instead! This caused some gulps around the room; I think people want to own their own home, so Frank's idea that we all rent went down badly.

So all-in-all some very interesting stuff; the LibDems were the most political of the speakers. I was concerned that 2 of the 3 Labour speakers were "formers" and thus didn't have to defend the government. The left were very pre-occupied with the rise of the far-right and all mentioned the BNP - a genuine concern or, again, student dogwhistle politics? But most of all, the re-occurring themes, through speeches and questions, were foreign affairs, civil liberties and jobs/economy - plus a few on education. Nothing on crime or the NHS. What does this tell us about the future domestic political agenda?

Busy Weekend

Following on from last Sunday's fun, this weekend turns a little more to politics. Today I am heading over to Great Yarmouth to help support their excellent PPC Brandon Lewis and the Conservative council candidates. Yarmouth Borough Council is an excellent Tory-run authority but suffered a few losses last year (showing that being in power locally can be as off-putting as being in power nationally). They've takens ome tough decisions but Yarmouth is changing - for the better - beyond belief. They deserve our support.

After that I am going to campaign in North Walsham for local PPC Trevor Ivory who has made a flying start in the seat. It is worthy of note that Trevor is taking his campaign straight to heart of LibDem support in the constituency - a lot of people are coming today into an area once described to me as a "no go area for Tories." It would be easy for Trevor and his team to retreat into the any very strong Conservative areas but he isn't doing that - this is one fight he's taking to Lamb.

This evening Louise and I will be spending some real quality time together - Emily is off to Nanny & Granddad's house to eat her way through their biscuit tin - so we will be taking some time off! Sunday morning we are going to church and then I have to spend a few hours preparing for next week's full council meeting. The afternoon is a constituency officers meeting, followed by a Group Meeting and then finally (phew!) in the evening we get to see friends.

My Predictions for 2007

Wales: Labour will lose their majority in the Welsh assembly with the Tories becoming the second party winning some surprising seats. At this high Nick Bourne will resign and the party will elect a younger, more Cameronesque leader.

Scotland: Labour will face a difficult election but will remain the large party in the parliament. Other parties will attempt to form a coalition but will fail, leading to a fragile Labour / LibDem administration limping on.

Labour Leadership: John Hutton will be the only candidate to take on Gordon Brown for the top job, with the election coming in June or July. Brown will win by a decent margin and Hutton will then refuse to serve in a Brown-led cabinet. Despite a big bounce in the polls, Labour's finances mean that Brown cannot go for a snap poll.

The cabinet: At least seven current ministers will go - (obviously Blair and Prescott) but I think Armstrong, Straw, Smith, Beckett, Hutton, Jowell and Falconer as well. How about this - Brown is elected Leader and Hilary Benn his Deputy. In a move that angers a lot of people (and the Daily Mail), he appoints fellow Scot Alistair Darling as the new Chancellor. John Reid takes a lower profile role as Leader of the House, which allows Alan Johnson to be the new Home Secretary as a reward for not taking on Gordon. Ruth Kelly is shifted over to somethin like International Development as she is given more time to defend her marginal parliamentary seat. David Milliband will be given a promotion to a major spending department like Education. Hewitt will survive as Health Secretary. Dull but loyal Stephen Timms will creep up the ladder again - maybe to Trade Secretary? Des Browne will move on from Defence into a less potent job like Constitutional Affairs. As he failed to be elected Deputy Leader, Peter Hain is appointed the new Foreign Secretary. Hazel Blears is shifted out of the Party Chairmanship and is replaced by Douglas Alexander. Blears is given a difficult role such as Work and Pensions.

Shadow Cabinet: Cameron will flesh out his version of Conservatism and it will reassure both the right of the party and the Daily Telegraph. David Davis will take on a much higher profile role. Cameron will use the summer as a chance to set in stone the team he wants to go into the next election. Hague will take the title of Deputy Leader byt both he and Osbourne will keep their present jobs. May will be downgraded again but will stay in the shadow cabinet. Grayling will be promoted again, as will Villiers. Some of Cameron's key players such as Gove, Vaizey and Herbert will make the shadow cabinet.

Norwich: Labour will hold on at the 2007 poll but only as a result of a split opposition. The Greens will continue to make gains (plural) and Labour will hold their key seats. Conservatives to hold onto Catton Grove and make further gains.

National: Cameron will score very well across the country, partly because of his strength in England and partly because of the introduction of STV in Scotland. Labour have a bad night - another factor in Brown's decision not to call a snap election. The LibDems will score a net reduction in seats.

LibDems: Following a bad May poll, Sir Ming Campbell will retire citing ill-health. A leadership election will follow that will be fought by Clegg, Huhne and Lamb. Huhne will win - only just and the two losers will be his Home and Foreign Affairs spokespeople. Cable will carry on as Deputy Leader and Treasury Spokesman. They will be forced to repay the £2.4m Brown money but it will not bankrupt the party.

Blears should resign

I believe in Ministerial responsibility. I believe in Collective responsibility. If an MP doesn't agree with a government policy or its application then they should resign from that government. So why is Hazel Blears (and, for that matter, a few more besides) still in office whilst campaigning against their own side. I'll say nothing more but leave you with Blears-hunter-in-chief Cllr Iain Lindley here and here.

How festive are the party websites?

I know that is the question that we have all been asking over our turkey sandwiches. Just how much of a festive theme has each main party thrown into their on-line campaigning?

The LibDems are the party who desperately need a sherry-fueled episode to mask their dismal 2006 - a year in which they have dumped a leader and end up rock bottom in the polls. Yet their website - here - seems to have totally ignored Christmas altogether. There is one story about the number of people eating turkey on their own this year but precious little else. You will be aware that I feel the national LibDem website is awful when compared to some really rather better local efforts, but this really is rather poor. Festive rating: 1/10

I am greeted at Labour's site - here - by a pop-up which asks me to join the party so I can vote for the new leader. I wasn't aware that Blair had resigned, but hey-ho. The frontpage has a lovely big festive message that offers us "best wishes for Christmas and the New Year". There is also a flashing graphic of Christmas tree lights that then displays an achievment of the current government. Pretty good, fitting with the current party image, contemporary design. Festive rating: 7/10

Is Christmas too traditional for the modernisers at Cameron's Conservatives? Hardly as their site - here - includes a very flashy graphic which shows snow falling over the hill sides which are littered with Christmas trees. It is a shame that where you would normally expect a message to pop up (like "Merry Christmas") it doesn't and you end watching the graphic waiting for something to happen which then doesn't. A bit disappointing but it is the most technical of all the sites and, somewhat ironically, the most traditional. Festive rating: 7/10

Oddly there is no festive message on any of the sites from any of the party leaders - the Conservatives lead on Labour Chairwoman Hazel Blears challenging her own party's health policy, whilst the LibDems stick to a story about Iraq and Labour advertise their programme of Spring Events.

Come on parties - let's have a bit of Christmas cheer about you all!

LibDems down to 15% in latest YouGov poll

I don't believe individual opinion polls *at all* and I put my faith rather more in the trends of pollsters. However, the sight of LibDems across the blog-o-sphere squirming about the latest YouGov is too much for a blue-blooded Tory like me to resist.

For a party that stands for "winning here" and being the "growing party", such a rebuff to the dynamic leadership of Sir Ming must be hard to take.

Seriously though my little LibDem chums - calm down, take stock, this is one poll so don't panic. If a 6 or 12 month trend shows you in the 15-18% box you can panic then, but not now.

Happy Christmas!

Are we voting for ends or means?

The level of debate in the pastoral office at school has been raisied this week, as we move on from the future of the penny-sweet industry to political ideology and thought.

My good friend, colleague and Eaton resident is threatening not to vote next May. He is classic LibDem fodder (young, caring, pro-environment, basically a bit left wing but hates New Labour) but as I have scratched the surface of his beliefs he shows worrying signs towards authortarian Toryism.

Anyway, his complain was that the parties were "all the same these days." "Nonsense", I declared. I believe that is the lazy answer for people who don't want to think things through. Are you honestly saying, I went on, that all three parties have the same education policies, the same tax proposals or the same ideas on immigration?

"Ah-ha", he quickly rebutted, all of those things are about the micro-management of the system not about broad based ideological differences. Such an arguement got me thinking. In the 80s we had the classic Conservativism versus Socialism debate, personaified (if you like) by Thatcher and Foot. A classic cold-war battle being fought in British politics.

Name any three major party frontbenchers and I'd bet you they'd agree on the projected outcome for the country. We all want a strong economy, good education, a working transport system etc. However, where we disagree is how to achieve that - so politics is becoming about the means rather than the ends.

So, says my friend, he is being asked to vote for slightly differenent versions of management rather than for political leadership. Before he votes he wants to see a real battle of ideas - not the day-to-day policy of school funding, but of where we want British edcuation to go and do.

Maybe he has a point, I concluded. After all, Cameron, Blair and Campbell could probably draw up a "vision statement" on which they could all sign up to. So we, the voters, have no choice about where UK plc is going - just a choice of vehicle to get there.

Any interesting arguement and so much more worthwhile than guessing whatever happened to all those 80s bands you just don't hear of anymore.

What should I ask at the next Full Council meeting?

Every month each Councillor gets the chance to pose a single question which the Executive Member or Committee Chair responsible must answer. To this point each month I have had an obvious question to ask because of various issues that have arisen around the ward. The question could be about a specific issue which the council had so far not answered (e.g. parking on Bishey Barnabee Way) or about general strategic council wide issues (e.g. time spent to improve run down council housing stock).

I believe in avoiding nasty political point scoring (unlike some Labour and LibDem Councillors) and as this really is the "nuclear option" for finding out information I also think the question should be something you couldn't find out easily any other way.

So, with the deadline looming on Wednesday I'd like to know what you would like answered from the City Council. I can't guarantee I'll choose a question from this blog, but it would be good to ask something suggested by a blog reader.

You can, of course, ask your own question at council by e-mailing it to andy.emms@norwich.gov.uk - you'll even get a supplementary question too! You need to be a resident of Norwich to do so and you'll have to turn up at the Council Meeting on the last Tuesday of the month to ask it. It is however your way of getting an answer straight from the horse's mouth!

Anne McIntosh selected for safe seat

The news from CH.com is that Tory frontbencher Anne McIntosh has been selected for the very safe and newly created seat of Thirsk and Malton. I have always argued that Anne deserves a good berth because of her excellent parliamentary record - just the sort of MP we need. I am, however, sad that another MP whose constituency disappears - John Greenway - is now left without a seat to fight. 'A'-List or no 'A'-List we need to support those who have given dedicated service to the party. I hope that John is given what he deserves by the powers that be at CCHQ.

But, well done Anne - I'm sure it was well deserved.

Are the LibDems going to drop their opposition to Tesco ... or are they going to play it both ways again?

One of the big issues that dominated the campaign in Town Close last year was that of the proposed Tesco Express being built on the site of the Arlington petrol station on Unthank Road. The Greens, naturally took against the plans. So too, with little impact, did the LibDems. The Greens subsequently snatched the formerly rock solid LibDem ward and left local activists reeling.

Today a LibDem Focus leaflet graces my letterbox - not a particularly good one and now rather irregularly delivered but one story stood out for me. An update on Tesco.

Chris Thomas, the sitting Councillor who faces the fight of his life next year, claims to be pleased that the application was rejected before adding:

I have had letters from residents who are not car owners and who would welcome an opportunity to shop daily at a small supermarket which they feel with complement the specialist shops.

So that's clear then ... not. Are the Town Close LibDems therefore in favour or opposed and, in particular, is Chris Thomas in favour or not? Or, like on so many issues, are they planning to play this one both ways depending on which doorstep they are standing on?

Or is there a more wholesale change on the way? The LibDems have lost voters hand-over-fist to the Greens in the Golden Triangle and many of these residents are unlikely to return to the fold anytime soon. So if the LibDems detect a significant minority in favour of the Unthank Tesco (but who don't like to shout about their opinions) could they switch policies in time for next May and hoover up those votes?

I don't know, but I do know that the Town Close LibDems are desperate.

They may think that the votes of the anti-Tesco lobby are lost to the Greens and political pragmatism draws them to a pro-Tesco position as the only way of holding their seat?

Door Knocking & Bond

Today was a mixed bag with a relative lie-in (well up at 7.30 and back into bed by 9) followed by a trip with the UEA Conservatives to offer some mutual aid to the Norwich North Conservatives. We went door knocking on one of the new housing developments in the area and two things struck me - firstly the sheer volume of property turnover in such areas, much worse than it ever was in Bowthorpe in my humble opinion. And the second was how many people are now willing to stop and talk politics on the doorsteps on a freezing November afternoon. Overall very good for the Conservatives but with a noticeable number of Green voters too - on today's canvass they beat the LibDems for third. Interestingly we had Iraq re-appear as an issue (it had died down) but also the state of local parks, housing and anti-social behaviour are consistently topping the list.

This evening Lou & I managed to get out and see the new (well, re-made) Bond film. We both think that Craig made an excellent Bond and it was a great film. Much less formulaeic than other Bond films with loads of twists and turns - plus a bevvy of beauties and gun fights galore. Obviously I loved every moment, but the fact that Lou enjoyed it too (and she doesn't "do" Bond films) says a lot for how well it was made. Plus you get to hear Dame Judy Dench's opinion of backbench committee MPs...