Who should be more worried?

Over on politicalbetting.com they are asking who should be more worried about the latest bouts of polls about the leaders of the three main parties (click here for the full thread).

All 3 leaders have gone up but Cameron (up 2) less than Clegg (up 6) and Miliband (up 4). Should the PM be concerned about this?

Maybe not as much as you might think; the details show that 95% of Tory voters think that Mr Cameron is doing well; compared to 79% of LibDems voters for Clegg and, most worryingly of all, just 72% of Labour voters for Miliband. Any leader needs to be at 90% plus for his or her own supporters, really.

What is also noteworthy is the cross-over between the LibDems and the Tories; 71% of LibDems feels that Cameron is doing well and 68% of Tories think the same of Nick Clegg.

So where does that leave us? God knows, but it shows that if you pay too much attention to the polls it can make your head hurt and leave you more confused than where you started!

Brown Trouser Time At Cowley Street

The Sun YouGov poll tonight has the LibDems down to a new low of just 7 percent - seven percent.

If this goes on and the party holds together then they have much, much bigger balls than I ever gave them credit for.

Question for the Pollsters

So ... the latest YouGov poll sparked an instant question for me about voting intention work versus approval ratings.

Of the respondents, 43% would vote Tory if there were an election tomorrow, 34% for the leaderless Labour party and just 15% for Clegg's LibDems; the missing 8% must be for the other parties.

However the government approval rating was +8%; 44% to 36%.

Good news for Cameron; I assume pretty much all of Labour's supporters would disapprove of the coalition so that leaves just 2% opposition from the Tories, LibDems and others. This strikes me as quite a low figure.

Bad news though; 44% either represents most of the Tories but a fraction of the LibDems or more worrying a lower portion of the Tory vote and more LibDems. Why isn't this figure higher? The government has 58% of the combined vote with only 44% approval.

I know both CCHQ and Downing St will have noted this.

Making Your Mind Up!

Today is polling day and the day when you get to have your say on the future of this country.

I think Mr Cameron ought to be proud of a positive campaign based on hope and optimism for the future, and giving us the change we need - reforming politics, mending our society and fixing the economy.

It feels as if Labour have had nothing positive to say in this whole campaign - and if you don't believe me, compare the front pages of the pro-Labour Mirror and pro-Tory Sun today.

We can have better - an MP who listens, keeps in touch and has the real-life experience to know what life in Norwich South is all about and not another career politican.

If all the people we have met in this campaign who have said they'll vote Conservative do so then we can win.

But whatever you do, go out there today ... and vote.

MORI: Norwich South Poll

Amongst those absolutely certain to vote:
Labour 39, Conservative 20, Green 19, LibDem 19

(Can't win here? - hardly)

I am very interested by this poll. We’ve heard a lot from other parties about tactical voting. Maybe now we can tell the people of Norwich South to vote for the party whose policies they most believe in or whose candidate they most wish to see as our MP – a real choice for local people?

Exclusive (biscuit) poll says Gordon set for landslide

Forget the real polling, tonight I have the results of a new and exclusive poll which shows Gordon Brown set to have a landslide fourth term and the LibDems almost wiped out of the Commons.

At tonight's ND Sixth Form open evening I asked visitors to eat the biscuit which represents their favourite and which thus represents the party leader they are most aligned with.

Whilst Dave's biscuit choice has a steady trickle, Clegg's biscuits remained almost entirely in place and Gordon's flew off the plate.

If Gordon is as in touch with the country on other issue as he clearly is with biscuits, I can strongly predict a fourth Labour term and maybe even a Labour Gain in South Norfolk? Who knows...

Influential poll puts Tories ahead in Norwich South

The EDP and Evening News cover the story here, including the factually incorrect and rather grumpy protestations from my opponents. I am not taking any vote for granted at this election and we must prove that we are ready for, and responsible in the use of, power. There is still a lot of work to do, but this backs up what we are being told on the doorsteps that we are performing very strongly in the race to be our next MP.

The depth of the Tory lead

A Conservative opinion poll lead of 16%, as published in The Guardian, is hardly newsworthy at the moment - but what is worthy of note is the analysis here which shows the Tory Leader ahead in all social classes and all regions. Has there ever been a time when a government has collapsed so completely and amongst even its most loyal supporters? Brown gets back to running the country next week ... welcome home, Prime Minister!

Vote Today ... Vote Conservative

It's about half way through polling day and turnout looks like it is up here in Bowthorpe ... I am hearing similar things from friends in different polling districts. Will it fall off tonight or are we in for a turnout boost?

Interesting times - but remember to mek your vote county today ... send Gordon a message he can't ignore.

Vote Conservative!

Latest Norwich South poll

Conservative 33%
Labour 31%
LibDems 24%
Green 13%

According to latest poll of polls here

No matter how many of these we get, the pattern of the seat being a tight Lab/Con marginal remains. A two horse race, anyone?

Was the media narrative over Brown's crisis performance wrong?

For the last 2 weeks covering the major economic turmoil, the media seem to have worked out what the story was. Brown was a superhero; a master of the universe, who would bravely sort out all this mess and lead international opinion. Cameron and Osbourn were to be silent and Cable played the wise sage on the sidelines of this all.

In fact, in order to get noticed the Tory Leader has to tear into the PM - and an effective speech is was too.

However, today's polls blow a hole in this theory. Apparently, although Brown still has a lead over the economy, this doesn't translate into votes and the Tories have (in some polls) actually extended their lead. Meanwhile the LibDems continue their slide showing that whilst some people are fooled by Cable, the overwhelming majority fear a Clegg-led government. In fact the most worrying fact is that only 7% of people believe Clegg-Cable are best to run the economy; that means only roughly half of all LibDem votes trust their own side. As for Brown he can take some comfort in the economic figures but he's still on for a drubbing at the polls. And the later surveys, which take into account Cameron's speech, show a better position for the Conservatives.

So what does all this mean? Well, once again the media and the Westminster Village have gotten the modd of the British people wrong. People may think Brown has part of the solution but clearly feel he is the problem too. They do, of course, have form over this - the media said David Davis was bonkers over 42-days; trouble is that the public backed him.

Will they learn from this? Of course not, because they like to continue to have an inflated view of their own self importance. When the judgement of the people is in, though, they will continue to have their bubble pricked.

Clarke set to lose to the Conservatives says UK's biggest ever marginal seats poll

The UK’s largest ever poll in key marginal seats has confirmed that it is the Conservatives who are on course to defeat Charles Clarke at the next election, despite claims by the Greens and LibDems. The poll, carried out by PoliticsHome Electoral Index, is the biggest poll of its kind and the best indication of the result of the next general election with 34,000 participants in 238 key seats. The work was carried about by well respected pollster YouGov – who have correctly predicted all of the recent elections including Boris Johnson’s victory in London.

The reason that this poll is more accurate is the wording of the question – instead of asking for their party of choice, this poll asked people to think about the constituency of Norwich South and the candidates standing here and which of them the elector would vote for. It gave the result as a Conservative win.

The report says: “Our poll suggests that the LibDems have failed to position themselves as the challengers to Labour in these seats and the drop in Labour support is instead going to the Conservative Party, in some cases [ including Norwich South ] allowing them to win from third place.”

We are running a strong campaign here in Norwich South and we are taking nothing for granted. We have made gains on the local council and people see us as the main challengers to Labour. Only David Cameron’s Conservatives can remove Brown from power – a vote for any other party is a waste. People are very keen to support our new ideas and fresh thinking in education, the environment and the cost of living.

There is still a lot of work to do as the next election could be up to 2 years away but here in Norwich South there is a real opportunity for change. The Liberal Democrats have no chance of forming the next government and have been almost wiped out at City Hall.

Under this Labour government, taxes have gone through the roof, the cost of buying food and filling up your car has rocketed and they have abolished the 10p tax rate hitting many hard working families here in Norwich.

In contrast, I believe in lower taxation, help for people to get into work, a stronger NHS, more police on the streets and better schools.

I will be working hard over the coming weeks, months and years to meet as many local people as I can; listening to your issues and addressing your concerns. I am in politics to make life better for local people.

This poll blows the claims of the Greens and the LibDems apart.

This poll will give our campaign great heart and encourage us to knock on more doors every week until the next election.

LibDems heading for government: The evidence

With thanks to politicalbetting.com for the graphic.

This is an absolutely amazing poll, in fact astounding.

I can't believe a quarter of people would still vote Labour, for a start.

The depth of the Tory support is now clearly evident. But Cameron won't celebrate - the deals not done until the votes are in.

But tonight the man who should be worried is Nick Clegg - he's taken them back down to the depths of the Campbell leadership. Today Mr Clegg said he knew where the LibDems were heading - government. If this poll is anywhere near correct the only place he's heading is down.

I hav constantly said that politicans must stop saying that which everyone knows to be false, because it damages politics as a whole. Government ministers aren't wandering around saying the economy is fine, because we know it isn't. They say they "understand" and "appreciate" the tough market conditions. Clegg's boasts - like other boasts he makes - are totally unbelievable. This week he has shown himself to be in control of his docile party but totally out of touch with the British people (value of pension and his Sainsbury comments are classics). I suppose he jst ought to be happy with 12% of the vote.

Tories take lead in Norwich South, say pollsters

The Conservatives have taken the lead in the new Norwich South constituency, according to respected political pollster "Electoral Calculus". Reflecting massive Tory poll leads and victories at last week's local elections in the City, the latest poll puts the seat at:
Conservative 30%
Labour 29%
LibDem 25%
Green 15%

I check the site regularly because of the seat-by-seat breakdown of its poll findings and this is the first time and suggests a win for the Tories (albeit with a majority in the hundreds) for the first time. It also shows the lack of impact of the LibDems, who continue to decline across the City.

I take some comfort from this but think things may change between now and polling day; I think the Greens for example will do better but at the further expense of Labour and the LibDems; but it does suggest that our campaigning locally and nationally is working.

Interestingly I was talking to a friend of mine, staunch Labour, today who said that for the first time his vote was up for grabs. He thought Labour had lurched into one too man disasters and that Clarke's time was up. If I vote tomorrow, he said, it would be for you. But, he added carefully, it isn't tomorrow so things might yet change. I can handle that caveat to his support; because it's my job in the next 2 years to give him a positive reason to vote for Cameron and myself.

Newsnight: 86% say the LibDems are incompetent, but at least only 15% say they are sleazy

Is this the reason why you should never include the LibDems in major polls about leading the country? I'm pretty sure these figures are down to low name recongition but they did make me laugh.

More LibDem Poll Gloom: ICM confirms party on the slide (again)

After all of the excitement that the corpse of the Liberal Democrats may yet be twitching, an ICM poll confirms today that their ratings have slipped by another 2%. The poll puts Cameron up, again, 11% ahead of Labour and heading for an overall parliamentary majority. You might have thought that a leadership election, which puts the party in the spotlight, may result in a poll improvement ... but it seems that the backbiting of the Clegg-Huhne battle (which looks, according to YouGov to be too close to call) has damaged the party yet further.

Cameron's Conservatives take a 13% lead

Con 40%, Labour 27%, LibDems 18%.

Very good.

Polls put parties in their box

The latest batch of opinion polls helps us to confirm what is happening in British politics. As we all know a single poll is often unreliable, but a series of them which demonstrates a trend is worthy of note. It is clear now that the Conservatives are in the 40-43 box, Labour 33-38 and the LibDems ... well, all over the place. There has been a lot of noise being made about the grey-vote swinging behind Cameron. I personally believe the most important findings of the recent YouGov poll is that the Conservative have a 1% lead over Labour amongst young voters too. Why isn't more being made of that? Aren't we always being told that young people aren't Tory?

Cameron takes an 8% lead

When Cameron first became Tory Leader I said time and time again that polls will come and go but the trend is more important. I said that after leaving the 31-33 box, and then the 37-40 box, Cameron would have to hit 42% with a 10% lead consistently to really be in cruise control.

The Com Res poll today gives Cameron 41% and an 8% lead. We'll have to wait to see if the other pollsters fall into line.

It's Neck and Neck! Only the Conservatives can beat Labour here...

My unfailing optimism about the future of the Tory Party is normally frowned upon in our staffroom. They either pity me or ignore me. Then today something happened. Somebody (and you know who you are!) pipped up with "your man gave a good speech, didn't he?". I replied, "Yes, the speech that'll make him Prime Minister." Then something strange happened. Laughter didn't break out. A few looked serious at this thought, a couple nodded and one said, "you could just be right."

The ICM poll tonight puts Brown and Cameron neck-and-neck on 38% a piece with poor old Sir Ming's LibDems well out of it. Other polls are showing roughly a 3.5% swing to the Tories, with Labour's lead cut to 4%, 3% and 1% (depending on your pollster). Not a bad result for an hours work Dave!

My favourite post-speech moment came with a sixth-former today who admitted - in front of his class mates - that Cameron's speech nearly made him cry. I didn't admit that I nearly cried too (!) My sixth form class clearly loved the speech, all bar one who hadn't realised he'd even spoken!