Saturday, May 10, 2008

Tories take lead in Norwich South, say pollsters

The Conservatives have taken the lead in the new Norwich South constituency, according to respected political pollster "Electoral Calculus". Reflecting massive Tory poll leads and victories at last week's local elections in the City, the latest poll puts the seat at:
Conservative 30%
Labour 29%
LibDem 25%
Green 15%

I check the site regularly because of the seat-by-seat breakdown of its poll findings and this is the first time and suggests a win for the Tories (albeit with a majority in the hundreds) for the first time. It also shows the lack of impact of the LibDems, who continue to decline across the City.

I take some comfort from this but think things may change between now and polling day; I think the Greens for example will do better but at the further expense of Labour and the LibDems; but it does suggest that our campaigning locally and nationally is working.

Interestingly I was talking to a friend of mine, staunch Labour, today who said that for the first time his vote was up for grabs. He thought Labour had lurched into one too man disasters and that Clarke's time was up. If I vote tomorrow, he said, it would be for you. But, he added carefully, it isn't tomorrow so things might yet change. I can handle that caveat to his support; because it's my job in the next 2 years to give him a positive reason to vote for Cameron and myself.

16 comments:

Paul said...

Antony,

I think that you should tweak your blog header. You should move the 'Little's Log' text higher so that we can see your face. Maybe crop the image slightly top and bottom and have the 'Little's Log' above the image and the tagline below.

Everytime I visit your blog it irritates my aesthetic sensibilities.

What about having a sidebar widget that shows recent comments?

Comrade said...

Congratulations...so let me get this right. If the Tories maintain a double digit lead in the polls and acheive a national swing (comparing the 05 general with the 08 locals) of about 10% - Anthony Little might just (only just) pull it off in Norwich South.

If The Tories didn't win Norwich South in those circumstances it would be highly embarassing for you as every other seat in the East of England would be Tory blue.

Anonymous said...

A agree future Green votes will be from Labour and Lib Dems.

Certainly in wards like Bowthorpe with high degree of self employed and small businesses(some strugglin) with families and cars; talk of nationalisation, curbing or pricing out car use, green socialism and curbs to entrepreneurship probably will not endear practical hard working folks with the Greens.

To go forward Greens have to push sustainanable capitalism where carbon and pollution has a price or dirty businesses fail; clean, efficient, green, businesses suceed. They might suceed, as a case policy, if they practically help homeowners in affording energy efficiency or home energy production, saving cash on escalating energy bills. Say if one lectures[ivory tower]on socialism, marxism, nationalisation of rail linking to green philosophy at a local seat of learning; practical connection and engagement to Bowthorpe realist is going to be political difficult, if not met with blank faces.

Anonymous said...

You must be desperate if you are wheeling out Electoral Calculus. How can any one take you seriuosly now!

Anonymous said...

Two years is a long time in politics and nearer the time you aill have to decide if you attack the grens or labour.
Hell with freeze over norwich couth is tory green maybe but never tory keep dreaming Anthony

Antony said...

Paul - thanks for the advice, but with the blogger software I found it difficult enough to do this! I am working a chap who's looking into my online presence and maybe he can help.

Comrad; well, maybe not ... on a general swing we should gain GY,Ipswich and Waveney without too much trouble. However, North Norfolk and Norwich North have the incumbant factor and both Lamb and Gibson will be harder to dislodge because you'll need extra swings to offset their personal vote. Do-able, but not easy. Clarke on the other hand is actively diliked and the Greens will syphon off left wing votes. I actually think NS will be easier for the Tories to win on a split vote that some other mathetmatically easier seats.

Anon 1 - certainly agree. People who are struggling to keep heads above water have no time for the pious ideology of the Greens.

Anon 2 - Most serious commenators refer to Baxter's EC pretty much all the time.

Anon 3 - NS was Tory a generation ago. Can you see a split vote situation where the Tories can win? Labour, LibDem and Greens have all said to me that they can, so you are pretty much alone in believing that the Tories cannot win.

EGL Resident said...

With respect to a number of comments left by an "anonymous" poster on a number of threads, why do you read a blog you so obviously disagree with and find so offensive? Please, have something to say or don't both at all.

On topic, I think where I live (Earlham Green Lane) is very split between the 4 parties. I don't know about other areas of the City but I think Norwich could be one of the most remarkable seats of the next election.

Paul said...

You've probably got it all in hand Antony, but I use Wordpress for blogging and I think it's pretty good.

Despite having a dormant Blogger account I do not know much about Blogger's capabilities - undoubtedly as good as Wordpress...

Comrade said...

Interesting to see that you don't rate Chloe Smith's chances very highly. There's unity for you...

Oh yes silly me, the once safe Tory seat of North Norfolk is now a Lib Dem stronghold....

Andreas Paterson said...

I'm not sure about Mr Anonymous (and for the record I'll say that I always like to comment under my own name) but I read Anthony's blog because it is:
a) An interesting read
and
b) Because it's always good to see what the enemy is up to ;)

Antony said...

Andreas; you have always done the courtesy of standing by your comments and good on you. Sadly not all of my political opponents (and some friends!) do the same. Some blogs block anon comments, I don't want to do that but one particular anon (who is the same person doing it from the same place) does need to sort their life out.

Comrade; absolutely not, Chloe Smith is a first rate candidate and one of the bext political brains of our generation of Tories. Very capable and an excellent PPC-MP in waiting. However, like Trevor Ivory, she's up against a political giant (locally). If I boasted that she was on course to win, you'd accuse me of niavety. When I am honest, you call us split; can't win really. For the record: I believe Chloe Smith will win Norwich North, she's got the fight of her life and the majority may well be three figures or less but she can (nay, will) do it.

Comrade said...

Anthony, you refer to Chloe as "one of the bext political brains of our generation of Tories" ... if ever there was an example of being damned by faint praise !!:)

Hardly then a match for a "political giant" (your words not mine)

Me thinks you are protesting way too much... the calculus gives her a clear victory & after only finishing 800 votes behind Labour in the north city wards the Tories are entitled to feel quite bullish when they factor in their near domination of the Broadland wards of Norwich North. The Tory candidate in Norwich South however still has doubts - still I suppose you might well be competing for the same canvassers/leafletters come the campaign.

Antony said...

Comrade - one of the best Tory candidates nationally vs only a local political giant; easy win!!! Do you expect Gibson to hold on? Even given his profile locally, I don't think I do. Norwich North local election results look very promising for the party indeed.

And no, we don't squabble over activists (I assume from that, Clarke and Gibbo do - or did) we run 2 very seperate associations and help each other when required.

Unlike the LibDems who don't even bother in NN...

Anonymous said...

Maybe you know about this article featuring Simon & Judith:

http://www.greenjellybean.org.uk/2008/04/liberal-democrats-can-spell-but-support.html

You could do a post about it?

Hiraeth said...

Ah, the sound of lefties bickering. Comrade sounds more than a wee bit desperate. For the record, Gibbo has proved successful at disassociating himself from New Labour in general. If he was just another apparachick, then he would certainly be doomed. He is, however, vulnerable to a landslide, as is every Labour MP. Just ask locally popular Tories who lost their seats in 1997 (think Gerry Hayes in Harlow), and John Garrett's team from 1983, for that matter.

If the vote splits in Norwich South, a repeat of the 1983 result is eminently possible. As for North Norfolk, I'm afraid that Lib Dems are a bit like ticks. Once they have a grip, it's almost impossible to remove them. Still, provided Cameron keeps up the momentum, anything is possible.

Comrade said...

hiraeth, I was just taking the cue from Antony who in his earlier posts seemed to rate his (at best very borderline) chances in Norwich South higher than those of his colleague in Norwich North. Given the swings involved this seemed a rather odd thing to be saying. But give Antony his due for some nimble footwork to spin his way out of it.

Gibbo has proved very resolute - witness the lack of any real dent in his majority 2001-5. On election day in 05 I was expecting only a three figure majority for him.

(for information 1983 was not a question of votes splitting - the seat merely conformed to national swing)

(( I repeat again that being only "one of the best" Tory brains could be seen as damned by very faint praise indeed!!))

((( much as I am trying to put a positive spin on "tics" I am failing, therefore I will cry "foul")))