Thursday, July 15, 2010

Question for the Pollsters

So ... the latest YouGov poll sparked an instant question for me about voting intention work versus approval ratings.

Of the respondents, 43% would vote Tory if there were an election tomorrow, 34% for the leaderless Labour party and just 15% for Clegg's LibDems; the missing 8% must be for the other parties.

However the government approval rating was +8%; 44% to 36%.

Good news for Cameron; I assume pretty much all of Labour's supporters would disapprove of the coalition so that leaves just 2% opposition from the Tories, LibDems and others. This strikes me as quite a low figure.

Bad news though; 44% either represents most of the Tories but a fraction of the LibDems or more worrying a lower portion of the Tory vote and more LibDems. Why isn't this figure higher? The government has 58% of the combined vote with only 44% approval.

I know both CCHQ and Downing St will have noted this.

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