Thursday, December 31, 2009

10 for 10: Predictions for the New Year

Happy New Year to everyone and I hope the next year brings about much joy and success. As is the want of bloggers, my 10 predictions for the first year of the new decade:

1. Norwich City will be promoted to the Championship, and it will be through one of the automatic places

2. David Cameron will be Prime Minister with an overall Conservative majority and will do so with a swing and a parliamentary result that defies all predictions and re-ignites the debate over voting reform. His new cabinet will look strikingly like his Shadow Cabinet; Gove, Fox, Lansley, Osbourne, Grayling and Hague will all keep their positions in government. The bigger shake-up will be at the middle and junior ranks. Chloe Smith will become a government minister.

3. Gordon Brown will not be Leader of the Opposition come next New Years Eve; he will quit in the hours that follow the General Election and in the next few weeks he will also stand down as an MP prompting the first by-election of the new parliament. David Milliband, Alan Johnson and Harriet Harman will be the candidates for the new Leader; Cruddas will be out of parliament and Jack Straw will not win enough support. Harman will win.

4. Nick Clegg will, despite a poor overall result (the LibDems will lose seats), cling on as LibDem Leader pointing to some spectacular gains from Labour as his defining moment. Their gains will not include any in Norfolk or Suffolk.

5. The overwhelming majority of newspaper websites will be "pay-to-view" by the end of the year.

6. The Queen will still be monarch with no signs of being otherwise, but Prince Charles will prompt a political controversy with the new government.

7. Local Government Reorganisation in Norfolk will come to nothing, but nobody will take any political responsibility despite the massive cost involved.

8. Diplomas will stay despite the new government's radical education policy.

9. Matt Smith will prove a more popular Doctor Who than David Tennant, to the surprise of pretty much everybody.

10. The new MP for Norwich South will be ...


Anonymous said...

1. Absolutely

2. Cameron to win big; Smith will not be made a Minister

3. Correct but Milliband will win.

4. Wrong; Clegg will be out and Huhne will be in.

5. Agreed

6. Agreed; Charles and Iraq?

7. Agreed; although I think the voters will sack Morphew before his party can.

8. No idea?

9. Agreed

10. Antony Little MP

Anonymous said...

Didn't list Clarles Clarke being selected, on Friay?

Green Bean said...

For the last one I predict that Adrian Ramsay will become our new Norwich South MP based on the fact the Greens have come first in the local and European elections in Norwich and they are the opposition at Norwich City Council.

Also you failed to take the Eaton seat in the last county election and your successes have been confined to a few locations such as Bowthorpe and Catton Grove in Norwich.

Paul said...

Green Bean, if you are serious you cannot necessarily base your prediction on the fact of support outside of a Parliamentary election. The Lib Dems at the height of their brief success could have legitimately claimed that Andrew Aalders-Dunthorne would win (did we - I can't remember!)(& he did get quite close) based on votes cast in City Council parts of Norwich South. We had control of the Council and the un-popularity of the Iraq war was hugely detrimental to Labour locally.

It's easy to be very hopeful for Adrian based on the phenomenal success of the Greens in Norwich over the past 10 years. I would dearly like Adrian to win - he has my support (for what it's worth) and I will be available all day on election day doing my bit but I will not be surprised if the people vote differently for Parliament (as so often they do) and Clarke is re-elected or maybe even Antony. Simon - sorry I don't think you deserve to win!