Is this a cop-out post? I don't know, but after a week of solid campaigning around the City I feel in a better position to start the prediction ball rolling with regards to the county elections at least. The anti-politican feeling is strong; but I think that local politicans are exempt from the feeling - firstly people feel a bit sorry for us doing this against the backdrop of the fiddles from parliamentarians, and secondly the nominations have closed and county elections tend to only have mainstream candidates so there isn't really a protest vote available. I do, though, fear for turnout.
If you want to post and share campaigning stories and predictions please feel free!!!
6 comments:
Antony, here are my predictions;
Conservatives to GAIN: Bowthorpe, Catton Grove, Gaywood North and South, Thetford-East, Dereham-South, Lothingland
Lib Dems to GAIN; Dersingham, Clavering, Diss, possibly Forehoe
Greens to GAIN; Wensum, Mancroft
Lab to hold; Kings Lynn North - only just, with BNP coming a close second, Sewell - only just, greens a close second
A very interesting set of predictions TJUK;
From the Tories point of view I think that all of those gains are on the cards. However I would add Caister, Sprowston & Breydon to that list - all taken from Labour. I think they will also take Clenchwarton, East Deptwade and Clavering from the LibDems.
The Greens will take Mancroft, Wensum and Thorpe Hamlet without doubt; maybe even Sewell on a good day.
The question for me is where the Tories will lose; all to the LibDems I would imagine. Long Stratton, Diss, Wells & Mundesley must be easy picking for the LDs, but I think that Hoveton, Holt and Hellesdon should also be on their radar.
Cons +13 - 7 - net gain +6
Labour -12 - net loss of 12
Green +3 - net gain of +3
LD +6 -3 net gain of 3
Conservative hold, majority 22
Waking up on Friday morning will set the tone for the day ahead: North Norfolk will have counted and the key Cons/libdem battle results will be known.
Yes, I tend to agree with TJUK +or- 1.
Antony, think you are correct in your central-local politican divide; but also think a second pattern of anything Labour coping it from core labour voters experiencing 10% tax increases last year, job loss or insecurity or increased consumer bills including 3.9% rise in Norwich council tax needs.
It will be interesteted, for example, whether the Labour incumbent for Caton Grove will hold either his ward or divisional seat, or have majorities slashed?
Will City and County Labour receive a backlash meltdown this year after holding up reasonably well last year?
Why are people saying that the Lib Dems are going to take seats from the Conservatives in South Norfolk?
At the Diss District by-election they went nowhere. They lost the Clavering by-election easily and were badly beaten in the District elections (only having a majority in one County seat - Costessey). They are more concerned about whether they will end up with just Costessey. After all they held East Depwade by under 50 votes last time and have now lost Clavering which they only held by a couple of hundred anyway.
Indeed the incumbent Labour for Caton Grove lost as forcasted.
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