There IS no life after Cameron

As the hackgate story claims scalp after scalp, Iain Dale wonders if the crisis will lap up against the feet at Number Ten, whilst pb.com speculates on who might be next if the PM is hit by that theoretical political bus.

I have no idea how far the investiagtions will go or what the outcome will be, but I am willing to bet at any odds that the PM will survive. And for 2 very good reasons.

Firstly there is absolutely nobody to replace him - there is, literally, no life after Cameron. Johnson isn't in the Commons, Osborne is not loved by the public and the election of Hunt would be too ironic given the circumstances. Hague? Doubtful. Even my own beloved Gove - along with Lansley - would be controversial given their reforming zeal in parliament has made them enemies. Some suggest David Davis, but he has languished too long on the backbenches to have a realistic powerbase. Theresa May is being "bigged up" by some and true she has made great strides at the home office but her leadership metal has yet to be tested. It therefore leaves Hague, but Hague would always be the caretaker leader and the public, coalition, party and parliament would know it. We've got this coalition because the nation needs stabilty and having a caretaker PM wouldn't deliver that. Until there is "another", Cameron is safe.

But also a second reason. The personal glue that holds this coalition together is Cameron and Clegg. Could any other leader hold this government together in the way that Cameron has? I very much doubt it. A lurch to the right - say under Fox - would destroy the coaltiion quickly and many of the other candidates would see a slower but equally painful death. The fact is that Cameron IS the coalition and without Cameron there is NO coalition. My view is simple - if Cameron falls, we are back into General Election territory within six months and that election would be without the smaller Commons and boundary changes the Tories crave.

As I say, I am not sure where the hackgate situation is going, but Cameron is going nowhere. The party needs him, the coalition needs him and, given the current polling (the Tories took the lead again tonight) the country still needs him.

Free Swimming Axed

The Coalition Government has spent today detailing the projects and scheme that are being cut, shelved or adapted to try and plug the enormous debt legacy left by Labour.

I think one thing that may be overlooked amongst all the massive announcements today is this one - click here for the BBC story - to abolish free swimming for over 60s and under 16s, which is a scheme that is in operation in Norwich. According to the research this scheme hasn't been value for money and around 80% of those people who took advantage of the scheme would have paid to gone swimming anyway. I remember welcoming the scheme when Norwich got funding, but this is a very real reminder of the touch choices ahead - thanks to Labour management we just can't afford this anymore. No doubt Labour Councillors and candidate will leap up and down about this, and I agree it is very sad, but I hope they realise the government they wanted to keep in office led directly to this.

Today in class I was talking with pupils about government spending; the question was asked what constituted "essential spending" by the government.

What should we do? If we are having to cut to the bone then we should start with essential spending and work out what extra we can afford - families, businesses and councils do it all the time, called "base budgeting". What do readers believe is "essential spending" in the modern context?

LibDem concern over PMQs lock-out

I had two different but connected moments today; the first is actually having the time to watch PMQs live (well, streamed over the net) and the other was meeting a local LibDem worthy on the way home from work who also watched the weekly parliamentary contest.

I hadn't realised when watching (we have now had 3 PMQs since the election) but my LibDem friend pointed out how much this event is now back to a Lab-Con battle and how the voice of the LibDems has been phased out. I doubt it will, but if the clashes make the news they will be without the voice of the LibDems; they have no spokesperson waving their flag - Cameron's 30 seconds on the news will meet Harman's (or whoever) 30 seconds with no LibDem. I never thought Clegg was a great PMQs performer as Leader, although Cable showed what could be done with just 2 questions and a few minutes of primetime news. Now this has all gone.

I pointed out to my LibDem friend that their MPs had as much chance of catching the Speakers eye as anybody else. Aside from getting a lecture on the mathematics which suggested this wasn't true (it did make sense afterwards) I was told that LibDem backbenchers would never line up alongside Cameron and Harman on the news.

I left thinking all thise was very true; I note that new LibDem Deputy Simon Hughes has promised to keep the party distintive. I wonder how they can do this without PMQs?

What will the Coalition's first hurdle be?

Since the creation of the coalition government there has been a buzz around; the first buzz was about the coalition agreement itself and what the Conservatives and LibDems would put forward, culminating in the Queens Speech. However the second and newest buzz is now around what the coalitions first hurdle will be.

Labour, large sections of the media, the commentators and the like are all on the look out for the signs of cracks, division and problems ahead.

Could it be the resignation of David Laws? No - that issue, if anything, made the coalition stronger. It was, in some ways, more a human story than a political one.

Could it be the new Deputy LibDem Leader Simon Hughes, a noted leftie and long-time Tory critic? Well, it may be - he's certainly making noises about VAT and the bizarre prospect of LibDem spokespeople outside of government. However so far even he doesn't seem to have the will to shake the government's cage.

So what does that leave? The answer may look more like an A level politics answer.

We always knew that the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats could make a legislative agenda between them. There is enough crossover between the manifesto documents to create a programme of lawmaking. There is probably enough areas of compromise to keep this going. By year 3 it may be difficult and that will test the metal of both sides.

However the big problems may arise in the use of the Executive function of govenrment. Much more likely is the fall out from day-to-day management. What happens when a problem arises and a LibDem Minister acts in a way that the Conservatives - or his Conservative Secretary of State - doesn't agree with? Or vica-versa with the Conservatives making decisions that irritate the LibDems? This is much more likely to happen sooner rather than later and will certainly be the test of the govenrment. A European crisis? An immigration problem? A foreign affairs issue?

So, do I think the use of the Executive power could cause the coalition to falter? Maybe, but I rather think not. I trust that the leaderships of both parties have this worked out in advance and a plan for this eventuality is worked through. People say that the strong personal relationship between Clegg and Cameron would stop this from happening. In addition there is a sense from the public that this government deserves a chance.

The thing which I think marks this government out is how grown up it seems to be. I think when the time comes both sides will admit there is an issue and work through it. Be honest, admit there is a disagreement, debate it and stop pretending everyone always agrees (check out the mess Labour are making of disowning the Brown era in their leadership election).

So where is the hurdle? Your guess is as good as mine!

Did Kennedy speak up at the time?

The Independent on Sunday today carries the news that Charles Kennedy, former LibDem Leader 1999-2006, abstained on the vote to enter a coalition with Cameron's Conservatives. Yet at the time we were told it was passed with all parliamentarians in favour?

Now Mr Kennedy has revealed his unease and suddenly it brings into question those LibDem claims. So who is not being honest here - the LibDems after the meeting or Mr Kennedy now?

Cameron's Coalition (Day One)

Brown's gone ... Cameron's in.

The names have started to roll in that will make up a new cabinet - Osbourne as Chancellor, Hague as Foreign Secretary, Fox at Defence and Lansley at Health all confirmed. First 2 LibDems; Clegg as DPM and Alexander at the Scottish Office.

An absolutely historic day - we'll wait to see what the deal on the table is later on today.