Glasgow East: The Result

Creighton (Independent) - 67
Curran (Socialist) - 555
Curran (Labour) - 10,912
Duke (Green) - 232
Howitt (Freedom 4 Choice) - 65
Mason (SNP) - 11,277
McLeish (Solidarity) - 512
Rankin (Conservative) - 1,639
Robertson (LibDem) - 915

SNP Gain from Labour

2005 result; Lab 61, SNP 17, LibDem 12, Con 7, Socialist 4

An excellent night for the SNP, a surprisingly good one for the Conservatives (again), a pisspoor LibDem performance and a disaster for Labour.

Glasgow East: The bar for success

Having seen and read a lot, I'd set the following bars:

SNP; winning the seat would be a fantastic result and a political earthquake. Coming within 2000 votes would be good, 3000-2000 Labour majority fine. If Labour hold on by more then there may be some sould searching.

Conservatives: They start 4th with only 7% of the vote and should be squeezed in classic by-election style. The Tories should be happy with 6-8% of the vote and more than 10% of even coming third would be an excellent result.

LibDems: Once again there has been lots of LibDem ramping. An utter disaster would be coming 4th, an OK result would be holing their share of the vote and any increase can be spun as good.

Labour: A tough one; a low turnout will cut Labour's majority but they must win here by more than 3,000 or so for them to have a good result. A three figure majority or less will be poor for the party and losing it would be a disaster.

We'll see what happens . . .

Brown's By-Election

Labour had a candidate but no campaign in Henley.
Labour have a campaign but no candidate in Glasgow East.
Labour have no candidate and no candidate in Haltemprice & Howden.

No wonder Brown doesn't like elections.

(With thanks to the original poster on pb.com)

They just don't learn, do they?

This post on the ultra-loyal LibDem Voice site clearly indicates why the Liberal Democrats have learnt nothing from their by-election batterings; the results were poor for them because they spinned their chances, ramped them up and then looked utterly foolish when it all went wrong. Now they're at it again in Glasgow; admittedly not claiming they are going to win, but not far off it. But the idiotic thing is the claim about the Tories not bothering - Cameron has visited, as has IDS. We've selected a first class candidate too and I understand from friends that things are in full swing. The voters of Glasgow will see through it, and when the results come in the LibDems will once again have egg on their face.

I ask again: Why can't the LibDems be honest?

LibDems Winning Here ... in Crewe, Henley & now Glasgow East

I have long been an opponent of the slogan "Winning Here", used by the LibDems, on the basis that if you don't win here or people don't believe you can win here then you look utterly ridiculous. Indeed, if you misjudge that prediction then people are less likely to believe it the next time.

For example, there was much amusement in Norwich when the LibDems continued to use that slogan here in 07 and 08, given the dreadful results for the party which saw a volley of seats lost. Knocking on doors around the City, people couldn't believe the arrogance of the party when everyone knew the LibDems were losing ward after ward.

They are now also taking a kicking from their own side, for ramping their chances in Crewe and Henley and then failing miserably in each. After all, if the LibDems don't win by-elections then what are they for?

After the events the LibDems are saying they didn't expect to win either seat; yet oddly enough before the poll these self same LibDems were saying that the result was too close to call!

I understand why they do it; because the LibDems must counter the wasted vote arguement and convince people they are worth voting for because they can win. However they do tend to use it no matter where in the country or what the previous results.

I hope the LibDems have an internal debate about their campaigning style, though from my experience of them they'll stick their fingers in their ears and hum until it all goes away. I think they ought to ask why they are the most negative and the most personal of all the parties. But, again, I'm sure they won't.

We await the slogan and the campaign in Glasgow East with some anticipation.