May poll strategy U-turn for LibDems

The vast majority of political hacks in and around the City expect the LibDems to get a damn good kicking at the May elections. However, I am reliably informed that the yellow peril have come up with a cunning plan to avoid such a fate ... targeting.

The LibDems were once the Kings of Targeting ... knowing where to put their resources, being able to move on from seats they would win to the marginals and knowing when the pull out. But in recent years they have missed this point and have slogged around Nelson furiously (getting destroyed by the Greens) whilst at the same time losing out in Lakenham but a couple of dozen votes.

So, I'm told, they have decided that some wards are beyond their reach and others are worth the fight. Amazingly they seem to have given up against the Greens whilst believing that the fight is still on with Labour. So, Thorpe Hamlet with a 1 vote LibDem majority is set to be all-but abandoned whilst University Ward, with a 600-odd Labour majority, is to be targetted. Similarly, Town Close and Mancroft are to be thrown to the wall. Then in Lakenham and Mile Cross are to be the scenes of the LibDem final lines of trenches. Interesting stuff; a realisation that the Greens haven't yet hit their peak of popularity or a realisation that Labour can still be beaten in Norwich and that Brown isn't "top cat"?

I also know that this decision - probably driven by the new professional LibDem team who have taken over - hasn't gone down well with the Councillors, and their activist friends, who aren't going to get support.

This strategy could also frustrate Labour; they had planned on the LibDems slinking away in those wards freeing them up to defend other seats and also chase the new Labour fascination - Wensum Ward.

If the LibDems sort their game out, it could yet be a fascinating May election.

Another former LibDems enters Adrian's big tent ...

The one thing that Adrian Ramsay, co-ordinator of the Greens at City Hall, has been remarkably good at is encouraging defections from other parties ... well, Labour and the LibDems anyway. Although no sitting member has crossed the floor, all of these defectors are big players in their now-former parties. If you want to find political activists, I suppose the best way is to find other activists and get them to join your side!

Today I learnt thay Paul McAlenan, LibDem Councillor 1999-2004, has quit the LibDems to back Ramsay as our potential Green consistuency MP. So what? Well, McAlenan was part of the "Nelson mafia" a group of young LibDem activists that were active in the late 90s just as I got into politics. Heavily armed with Focus leaflets and some vicious Bar Charts they decimated Labour and crushed the Tories, winning first Nelson Ward and then St. Stephens which seemed to fall with relative ease. McAlenen and friends represented the young, confident edge which surrounded the LibDems before they dramatically siezed control from Labour. McAlenan, along with Billy Boulton and Sarah Mitchell, were the modern and successful face of the party.

Then along came Ramsay and the Greens swept the board in the ward and Nelson elected its fourth party in twenty years. So to have picked up the endorsement of McAlenan is good work for Ramsay - he's a tribal LibDem and to secure his backing shows us either the lure of the Greens or the complete shambles which the Norwich LibDems have become, losing council seats, former councillors and activists. If I were Ramsay, I'd want McAlenan casting his expert eye over his election material. If I were Simon Wright, I'd be extremely worried about this. It looks more and more like he'll only have the North Norfolk LibDems to prop up his piss-poor campaign.

So, where are they now? We hear nothing of Sarah Mitchell now (expect Ramsay to be working his charm) and Billy Boulton famously attempted a come-back to the Council by taking over the LibDem Town Close seat from Derek Wood, which he went on to lose to the Greens on a massive swing. Nelson LibDems is now run by David Fairbairn who has led the party in the ward from calamity to distaster with the Greens now on 62% of the vote.

Candidates 2007 - Part I

Following last year's report, which caused some ripples in political circles, I have asked a friend to pen a few thoughts on the candidates standing this year. This is not my work, not my views and not written by a Conservative supporter. If you are easily offended, turn away now - and I promise this is totally unedited (apart from spelling, tut tut)! All comments welcome.

Bowthorpe:
Blair Campbell (Green) is the surprise nomination this year, hailing from the trendy new part of Three Score. His nomination is likely to annoy the Tories who are now treating Three Score like some kind of heartland. The Greens are likely to move well in front of the LibDems this year. Backbench Labour Councillor Chrissie Rumsby is seeking re-election but is a fairly mute and useless political operator. Not particularly well liked in the area and not very active either - she'll be relying on votes in Earlham and not standing against Antony Little. Tory candidate John Wyatt is Little's right-hand man and has certainly earnt his spurs in the ward but lacks his colleagues popular appeal. However the Tory "Leader" has been active enough locally to pass his support on. LibDem Francis McIvor won't make much of an impact. I predict a Conservative Gain, but with a smaller majority than last year.

Lakenham:
An interesting fight this year with the 4 main parties and UKIP standing for election. Popular Labour Councillor Keith Driver is standing for re-election, but with the Labour majority cut to 15 votes last year this is a seat on a knife-edge. Will Driver's work be enough to balance out his party's disasterous standing in the opinion polls. The reason to be worried is that last year's LibDem candidate has been re-deployed elsewhere and now Gordon Dean is the man on the frontline - Dean was a City Councillor for many years and a frontbench Transport spokesman. He is considered to be one of the LibDems best campaigners and shows they are serious about winning the seat. There are new candidates for the Greens, Jacqui McCarney, and for the Tories, Carrie Chandler. But they will be as out of the race as UKIP man Steve Emmins. This is a LibDem-Labour blood fight to the finish. Prediction: Too close to call, but if forced to say I'd go for a narrow Labour hold.

Nelson:
This ward is becoming predictably boring at the moment with the Green majority stretching further out at each new poll. The only change here - LibDem Fairbairn, Labour Bartram and Green Ramsay are standing again - is with the Tory candidate Malcolm Chamberlin, who claims that have coined the phrase "golden triangle" whilst working as an archant media man. All three opposition parties here are putting in the footwork but you would be insane to bet against Ramsay getting a four figure majority. LibDems to hold onto second place - just - but all three loser parties getting bunched up this time.

Sewell:
I had to comment on this is the first round of reviews because of the lack of a Norwich-over-the-Water candidate. What does this mean for the big vote they got in 2006? If the Greens had done more work here earlier they could have benefited from the voter fall-out, but I fear Penny Killingbeck may have to settle for second. The LibDems are standing former University councillor and media hate figure Ian Williams. Mr Williams is used to having dust-ups with other parties in the letters page of the Evening News but that combative spirit often makes him a good candidate. The Tories are standing Tony Landamore and it is surprising they don't do better here. Prediction: Labour hold, increased majority due to no NOTWP candidate.

3rd May just keeps getting nearer

If you have local elections by thirds (and a county poll in the fourth) then you may just feel as if elections never stop. I taught this in my A Level politics class today and, for all the expense and hassle of yearly elections, I cannot help by conclude that it keeps our campaigning sharp, focused and does provide good grassroots democracy (even if only a third of people vote!).

This evening I spent my time at various campaign meetings for wards in Norwich, getting paperwork sorted and planning campaign timetables and the like. We have a fantastic line up of candidates this year and I am most impressed with the work that they have planned.

I met with Malcolm Chamberlin, who is set to stand for us in Nelson Ward. He is very much part of the community and is an ex-EEN journalist and presently an environmental campaigner. We talked of trees and the green policies of City Hall for a while. Malcolm even admitted he could have been a Green member, if he wasn't so staunchly conservative in his ways. He'll go down a treat on the doorsteps of the Golden Triangle. His wife, a local therapist, is also very well known. Malcolm speaks honestly at all times and really cares about the local area - he would, having lived in the community for over 27 years. There's a glint in this one's eye, like he knows all about the ward and its people ... he has a brilliant nose for campaigning (in a way that only a non-political campaigner can have) and it will be interesting to see how he does.

It was then on to see Niki George, our 21 year old candidate for Mancroft Ward. Niki knows the City back to front, working for the County Council but based at the Castle. He works to bring in investment into Norwich. He really seems to want to improve life in the City and to learn everything about campaigning to bring it about. Malcolm looks and sounds like a Councillor for his area, whereas Niki is just so enthusiastic and genuine about politics, campaigning and local people that it is quite refreshing. They are both working equally hard on putting together campaigns for their area for this May.

When Cameron says the party is changing, it isn't until you meet people on the ground that you realise how true this is. Malcolm and Niki both joined the party under David Cameron - as did Carrie Chandler in Lakenham and Paul Wells in Wensum - and have really transformed the way in which the local party operates.

The party used to attract very serious centre-right political operators - and, thank goodness, we still do - but the new members and candidates are far more community based and campaign orientated. Everyone is a conservative, but there is far more optimism and hope about who we are, as a City, and what we can achieve.

I trust people will see this and the result on May 3rd will be good!