Monday, February 19, 2007

ICM Poll: Cameron 42%, Brown 29%

Over at they are discussing the latest ICM poll which shows Cameron back at the 40% mark but, more interestingly, with a 13 point lead if the Chancellor took over. Most of this swing to the Tories comes at the expense of the LibDems, but it will give Labour MPs and activists in marginal seats a lot to think about before they opt for the cash-saving coronation of Mr Brown.

I have argued over the last week or so that Cameron is moving further ahead as the best PR and media operator of the party leaders. LibDem Leader Sir Ming Campbell has had a quiet couple of weeks whilst Dave leads a lot of the political news. This seems, on the face of it, to pay off for the young Mr Cameron. It doesn't matter what he says, as long as he's on TV or radio saying it!

However, it has also been pointed out to me that the swing if Brown were Labour Leader (which is, incidentally, enough to put Cameron in No.10 with a decent majority) also sees large numbers of LibDems opt for the Tories. Is this because the thought of Brown is so scary that a lot of LibDems will vote for the only way to stop him ... i.e. Conservative?

I would be interested in what you have to say, but we have to agree that this is a decent poll for Cameron and a bad one for Brown (and, by default, for Campbell). But as we know, one poll does not an election win make.

No comments: