Pearson quits as UKIP Leader

Recovering from the earthquake news that Lord Pearson has quit as UKIP Leader, I found myself wondering if anybody could name any UKIP Leader other than Nigel Farage? Some bloggers are getting very excited today about a Farage comeback, others claiming huge names like David Campbell-Bannerman (against whom I once debated) will stand. Either way I can't see this contest setting the political (or real) world on fire. Let them get on with it in peace.

Oh, and for your interest the previous leaders were:

1993-1997 Alan Sked (who then quit the party claiming it was on the political fringe)

1997-1999 Michael Holmes (who was forced to quit after claims he was too pro-European - he went on to quit the party in 2000)

1999-2002 Jeffrey Titford (probably the only person to come out of this well)

2002-2006 Roger Knapman (who was found to be employing Polish immigrants and spent much of his leadership being undermined by Robert Kilroy-Silk)

2006-2009 Nigel Farage (who ended up challenging the Speaker and begin humiliated in the 2010 General Election but just survived death after being involved in a plane crash)

Leader on Candidate

Cameron on Little: “We have got a very strong candidate in Norwich South. We showed what was possible with Chloe and we want that to be part one.”

I wonder what Brown would say about Clarke

;-)

Labour source: "Vindictive" Lakenham campaign run by UKIP

Although I am fairly sure that both Keith Driver and Mary Cannell are pretty zen about the latest batch of "Spotlight" leaflets doing the rounds in Lakenham slamming the performace of the Labour council and government (see my post below), it seems that Labour high command are less satisfied with them and it seems an all-out witch-hunt is now underway to find the culprits. As the leaflets are anonymous and carry no imprint, they may struggle.

But I am now told by a very senior Labour source that they now strongly believe it to be the work of UKIP; or at least individuals within UKIP anyway with or without party permission. Let's be clear; I'm not aware they've done anything illegal but Labour are clearly spooked by this method of campaigning.

The answer may lie in a conversation I was having with a fellow (non-Tory) Councillor this week. If the county elections go ahead as planned next year, then Lakenham will be one of a number of crucial seats for Labour in Norwich. If the county elections follow the pattern of city elections, the Labour group at county could be heading for wipeout and third place on the council. Don't forget Labour currently hold the county divisions of Wensum (now solidly Green at City level), Mancroft (ditto), Bowthorpe (all 3 City seats are now Tory held) and Catton Grove (where the Conservatives hold 2 of the 3 City seats). So, what's special about Lakenham? Firstly it is the seat of their County Leader Sue Whittaker but secondly it was won by the LibDems last May with a half decent majority. Whittaker may look rather nervously at all this - UKIP may be no electoral threat, but their anti-Labour campaigning could tilt the electoral wind against her. So for the health of the Labour Party in Norfolk, the "vindictive" leaflet is keeping some at Labour HQ awake at night.

UPDATE: Of course! A friend reminds me ... whenever Labout elect a leader at county hall there is the usual debate about which urban area the leader comes from - Norwich, KL or Yarmouth. Norwich Labour are very determined that they should provide, as the county capital, the leadership and the City were thrilled when Whittaker got the job from Kings Lynn North & Central Councillor Irene MacDonald a while back. If Whittaker loses her seat, Norwich Labour are concerned that the top job would revert to a non-Norwich Labour Councillor within just a few years of them having obtained it. The obvious successor to Sue Whittaker is Bowthorpe's Gail Harris ... but given the drubbing Brenda Ferris got in Bowthorpe in '08 you wouldn't bet on Harris holding on either. So Norwich Labour are fighting for Whittaker to hold on for more than just party pride - they are doing it for city pride too. Mind you, the Labour Group at County post-2009 may not be worth leading!

Miliband's Speech: The one thing it does tell us

I've read the now-famous Miliband artical and have caught up with the news. Unfortunately I am ending up agreeing with Michael Portillo, who was on Newsnight a few moments ago.

I don't know if this is a coded attack on Brown (or Cameron) or if this is a very subtle leadership bid. But I do know that we now have a Foreign Secretary so strong that he can afford to do this, have Brown mis-interpret his comments and still stay in his job.

Whatever the hidden message of this article, the political message is clear: Miliband can be bold because he's now totally unsackable.

Why Brown won't go (and won't be pushed eirher)

In today's Daily Torygraph, Mayor of London Boris Johnson writes of his 11pm realisation that Brown will hold his job - cheese in the fridge gave it all away. Boris argues that he could go on a diet, rather like Brown could be given the boot. But rather like starting his diet, he reckons that Labour MPs just can't be bothered to start the process. I disagree.

I think that Brown will survive but for a very different reason; no senior level MP will wield the knife. The backbenches may want Brown to go, but they need some heavyweight support to do it. If any cabinet minister does that, then not only will the cash strapped Labour Party have to foot the bill for a contest (which they can't afford) then they might actually become leader themselves. They would then have to go on to lose the next election, no matter who becomes leader, and take the blame for a drubbing. Now Jack Straw may be willing to do this, but no serious contender will. Now that the polls show Labour badly behind under all leaders, they are going to wait and let Brown fall on the grenade instead of them.

I may regret saying this, but the next Labour leadership contest will be held against the backdrop of Cameron's first government.

Why did Wendy Alexander resign?

Wendy Alexander made a fairly small error regarding party finance (in terms of cash sums) and has been punished by parliament. She's stuck out a lot of abuse from her opponents, notably the SNP, and also the media. And now, suddenly, she quit. Now I should be delighted and using this blog post to gloat. But this resignation has left me more confused than pleased.

Why go now? The pressure was finally lifting, Labour have a by-election in Scotland they'll need to fight hard and leadership is important. But she walked away ... a two fingered salute to politics? A moment of weakness? Well, Wendy is sister of International Development Secretary Douglas Alexander. I just can't help wondering if he knew of her intent before she quit - in fact, I wonder if she sought her advise?

Brown, at the time of his anniversary, is battered by a second by-election bruising and depressing polls. Blair's leadership was challenged by a volley of PPS resignations; I just wonder if Brown's leadership is being challenged by a higher authority?

LibDems vote for a calamity ... just!

The 511 vote margin of victory for Nick Clegg in today's LibDem Leadership vote will no doubt occupy vast reams of blog pages, so I will just stick to a few key points.

Firstly, just over 40,000 people voted - down on those that turned out to elect Sir Ming and a worrying sign for the membership of the LibDems generally.

Secondly the slim margin of victory may cause a headache for Clegg everytime he has a party showdown. He actually got, if you include spoilt ballot papers and those with the inevitable Cable write-ins, less than 50% of the vote. No prize to the first LibDem to throw that back at him when me makes an unpopular decision.

Thirdly, the LibDems will now have a leader for whom the word "calamity" will forever be linked. Again, no prizes for the first use of that at PMQs, Question Time etc. It's a tag he won't be able to shift.

Lastly is the problem with what to do with Huhne. Chris must be gutted ; but the frontbench reshuffle would be easier if it were Huhne shuffling Nick (remaining as Home Affairs Spokesman is a no-brianer) but less easy to know what Nick should do with Chris. Sticking at Environment plays down his important and the fact he was a handful of votes away from being party leader, but can he have somebody who personally dislikes him so much in one of the key jobs? Vince is guaranteed Deputy Leadership and the Treasury. What can Nick do that doesn't look bad?

I always said - to some derision - that the Tories would fear Huhne more and I stick by that. This is the wrong decision for the LibDems and, as so, Cameron must be laughing tonight. Huhne was capable of leading them forward in terms of media and intellectually. Lightweight Clegg - Calamity Man - hasn't had a good leadership contest.

So well done, Mr Clegg. We all look forward, with interest, to what you do now.

LibDem Leader to stand down

The news that Hereward Cooke, the LibDem Leader in Norwich, is to stand down next year and move to North Norfolk, is a blow to debate in the chamber if nothing else. Yet the response to this news was different from inside and outside of his group.

Whilst Tory and Labour Councillor seemed genuinely sorry to hear that the council will lose one its better orators (if politically misguided), LibDem wags were less kind. One said (within my earshot) that it was "better to retire than be beaten" - a reference to the fact that Labour have won his Lakenham Ward for the previous two years and Hereward would have the fight of his life to win again. The swing that saw Keith Driver and Mary Cannell win would see Hereward lose the ultra-marginal seat.

However, now the attention will move to the leadership contest. As it was explained to me, the LibDems couldn't go into an election with a Leader who wasn't even standing in that contest. So if Hereward wanted to give his successor a chance to get established, he's have to stand down around Christmas or early in the new year. When he won the leadership last year, a few councillors referred to Cllr Cooke as the Ming Campbell of Norwich ... a safe pair of hands to guide the ship. Whilst Campbell fell by the layside, Hereward continues. But for how much longer? And who'll be in the frame to take over?

Anyway Hereward, you have long been the butt of the political jousting on this blog and in the council chamber, but you are a committed and hard working councillor with Norwich at heart. A real treasure in the council, and I'll certainly miss our political battles. Good luck for the future!

LibDems and Leadership contests

Last time they did it, personal scandle rocked the candidates and the result seemed like a messy compromise (which, as it turned out, it was).

This time the candidates are slogging it out in a most bizarre fashion - the Politics Show "calamity Clegg" issue looked like two men from different parties at each other's throats rather than two colleagues competing in an internal election. I think the contempt with which Huhne holds Clegg in is distorting his political judgement. It is getting nasty and may well cost the LibDems vote ... and as I always argue, when the LibDems suffer then all politics suffers too.

An interesting contest for us Tories to observe (Labour, of course, didn't get a leadership vote this year) given the excellent contest we had in 2005.

Sir Ming was "shafted by a complete shower of shits": LibDem MP

Sir Ming Campbell wasn't up to the job and wasn't right as LibDem Leader. I blogged throughout the last LibDem leadership contest that the LibDems would put off the difficult SDP versus Orange Bookers decision and lance the boil of the right-left discourse in the party and elect somebody who can chart the middle course, avoid making decisions and won't rock the boat. And true to form they elected Sir Ming who was totally incapable of leadership but didn't upset anybody and would hold together the wings of the party.

Now the LibDems still have to make that choice - do they chase Tory votes with a right-leaning Orange Booker like Clegg or do they challenge for Labour votes with an SDP left leaner like Webb? They will have to decide because their party will remain an unelectable political hyrbid until they do.

They could have made this decision 19 months ago. But being wet LibDems they didn't, put off the decision and landed themselves with a leader who lost them hundreds of council seats and plunged them to 11% in the polls.

I hope all those who voted and supported Sir Ming are happy with what they've done to their party. They were warned about this and they ignored it. However, once they get over this leadership crisis, the LibDems have a chance to rebuild their party. For what it's worth - as a Tory - I don't think it'll be in time to save them come the next election.

Scotland's next Leader of the Opposition

Another election, another coronation, another Scot ...

... but well done to Wendy Alexander for siezing the Labour Leadership in Scotland. She is probably the only person to quit a Ministerial role because of the high workload and lack of support and now return as Leader of her Party. I trust the high workload and lack of support in her new role won't get her down!