Norfolk Boundary Review: "Coalition Stitch-Up"?

On my way home from work tonight I met one of Norwich Labour's hardest workers, standing on the street corner visably fuming. Little did I know that the Boundary Review had been leaked and if Guido is correct then Labour have a lot to worry about. My angry socialist friend went off on one about a "coalition stitch-up" which sees all the Tory and LibDem held seats get safer and thus more difficult for Labour to gain. Here in Norwich South there are no changes whatsoever, but Labour's view is that no matter where the boundaries took him Simon Wright is a (political) dead-man walking.

Not so long ago Labour held 3 seats in Norfolk - Norwich N, Norwich S and Yarmouth - with an outside chance of NW Norfolk in a very good year (e.g. 1997). In that year they also got very close to taking SW Norfolk it should be remembered but never actually achieved it.

And now what? With Great Yarmouth taking in the staunchly Conservative areas around the southern tip of North Norfolk, Tory MP Brandon Lewis will have even more blue-backing rural areas to "overwhelm" the Labour folk of GY. In addition, those changes would make North Norfolk safer for LibDem Norman Lamb - and even more so when the strongly LibDem (at General Elections, anyway) area around Fakenham are put back in the seat. That leaves just Norwich North where Chloe Smith will see her majority soar as she takes safe Tory territories of Drayton and Taverham back into her patch.

Despite changes, the new "Kings Lynn" seat is still well out of reach for Labour and "South Norfolk", "Broadland & Dereham" and "Thetford & Swaffham" equally so.

So for Labour their best case scenario of a Norfolk with 3 winnable seats is shot to pieces - just 1 (Norwich S) remains.

My Labour friend seethed and sweated. He believed that this is all a stitch-up to guarantee coalition seats in the county and deny Labour representation. Labour, I am told, will fight this all the way. He argued that Norfolk will have 8 safe seats and 1 marginal and so politics could become very boring indeed in the future.

We'll see. But this Boundary decision, I sense, is far from over.

General Election Campaign Launched

The Conservatives have launched their campaign to see Chloe Smith re-elected as MP for Norwich North and Antony Little elected as MP for Norwich South.

The pair will be joined at The Forum by Shadow Health Secretary Andrew Lansley – the man whom David Cameron has said will be the new Health Secretary in a Conservative government. Mr Lansley, himself an East Anglian Conservative MP, will be holding a half hour meeting with a small group of Norwich older voters, from a range of local organisations, to take their soundings on Conservative proposals to provide dignity for senior citizens.

The races here in Norwich are likely to be amongst the most fascinating in the country, after Chloe Smith dramatically snatched the Norwich North seat from Labour at a by-election last July. And all the signs point to a photo finish in Norwich South where local teacher and city Councillor Antony Little is taking on disgraced former Minister Charles Clarke.

Chloe Smith said: “I have spoken in Norwich and Parliament about the need for plans that add up on social care. It is a vital issue and one on which we all have a real choice at the general election. In Norwich, this election is about picking two local champions with a record of action and a promise of more. It is a choice: five more years of Gordon Brown or the kind of energy and leadership we need, locally and nationally."

Antony Little said: “At last we have a date for the General Election and a chance for people to vote for change in our country. Locally people tell us that Labour have run their course and they want fresh leadership from an MP with the real-life experience to make a difference. It can’t be right that in a city like Norwich we still have real pockets of poverty, fear of crime and overstretched public services. We plan to run a positive campaign outlining why people should vote for us as Conservative candidates based on our plans for the future.”

Councillor Norfolk Blogger

Despite the various clashes, and very different views on the political situation locally, I wanted to congratulate Nich Starling on his victory in the Taverham North by-election yesterday. It was a solid win and on a decent size swing too - he should be proud of that achievement. The ward, which currently is in Chloe Smith's Norwich North seat, is traditionally a very safe Conservative area and I predict it will return to form very soon ;-)

Well done Nich, enjoy being a Councillor and I hope this position of responsibility doesn't lead to you losing your edge when it comes to blogging.

How about these 2 for good luck?

At a fundraising event we held tonight I met 2 people who claimed to be the luckiest Tories around; everytime they move to a constituency it is won by the Conservatives from Labour.

The pair moved back from abroad into West Norfolk in 2000 - just months before Henry Bellingham re-captured the seat for Hague's Tories from Labour.

They then moved to Norwich North in 2008 - just months before Chloe Smith siezed the seat from Labour in a dramatic by-election gain.

They have then come to Norwich South in 2009 - ...

Labour's Ipswich Choice for Norwich Seat

If Labour shot themselves in the foot by ousting Ian Gibson, then smacked themselves over the head with a mallet with their amateruish by-election campaign, they have done some almost medically impossible with the choice of John Cook (click here for more) as their General Election candidate.

Proving that all parties have issues with selections, Cllr Cook is an Ipswich Borough Councillor who lives and works miles away and whose association with Norwich is a decade old. Now rather than being able to take the fight to MP Chloe Smith, I understand Cllr Cook has already run his campaign into a brick wall as questions about his living and political arrangements surface.

Does Cllr Cook plan to move to Norwich, in his own property, and if so ... when?

If he doesn't, this must surely show that he doesn't believe he can win and won't commit to the City.

Does Cllr Cook plan to move his family with him when he does this to make Norwich his full time home?

Again if he doesn't and simple lodges or stays with somebody then how can he really claims to stand up for local people without understanding our City or its services?

Does Cllr Cook intend to stand down from his Ipswich seat now so he can focus on the campaign ahead in Norwich?

If he doesn't then questions may be asked about how he can represent one area miles away from campaigning in another. Will Cllr Cook continue to claim allowances in Ipswich whilst seeking to be elected in Norwich?

I am not saying Cllr Cook is a bad candidate but he certainly isn't a clear clean choice. Labour will have to spend the first few weeks of this campaign sorting out those issue during which time Miss Smith (not only to let the moss grow) will be consolidating her by-election lead.

Boys and Girls, Young and Old

Iain Dale has a deeply thought provoking piece in yesterday's EDP (sadly not on-line) about the trend in Norfolk Conservative PPCs. Newly selected Chloe Smith (Norwich North) got a splash in the paper mainly focused on being a young candidate - she's a tender 25 years old. But the fact is that the Conservatives are a younger party now (CF has more members than its Labour and LibDem equivalents put together) and Norwich / Norfolk have a strong youth wing of the party. Also the Norfolk Conservatives have strong trackrecord of trusting their younger members with standing for parliament - I was 26 on being selected for Norwich South in '04, whilst we also had 26 year old James Tumbridge (Norwich North) and 28 year old Trevor Ivory (North Norfolk). Chloe isn't remarkable beause of her age, but, as Iain points out, because of her sex. She's only the second female candidate in Norfolk for the Conservatives since Gillian Shepherd was chosen for South West Norfolk in 1983. Well done, Chloe - it doesn't matter if you are a boy, girl, young or old, Norwich North needs a Conservative.

Ian Gibson won't stand down

The not-very-surprising news that Labour MP Ian Gibson will contest the next General Election would not normally be note-worthy. But the comments of a close colleague and Norwich North resident bear thinking about. She is a Labour voter and big fan of Mr Gibson and yet on hearing the news declared "great, so we get an old, ill MP whose just hanging around to saddle us with the cost of a by-election."

Nice, but with phrases like "going out with my boots on" it shouldn't surprise him!