LibDem Coconuts
Today I finally had to succumb to the dreaded sales, although Riverside wasn’t too bad. This afternoon I spent brainstorming ideas for school, but mostly watching season 6 of the West Wing. Gripping! Although the thought of it without Leo is scary. Why have they only taken 6 seasons to do 8 years?
Also spent much time preparing stuff for my AS Politics group – their exam is on Wednesday 11th January. So stop reading this and start revising!
I was mugged by an old friend and LibDem activists today who spent much time bleating on about how my blog is giving away too much information! The question I posed is: where will the LibDems actually win in May? He said just one ward is considered safe. A coconut for the correct guess.
3 comments:
Every year there seems to be fewer orange boards on Ketts Hills though.
Thorpe Hamlet is odd, I have never canvassed a place where there are so many people who identify themselves as Liberals. But, the ward is changing demographically and boundary changes mean there is no longer any prospect of Labour sneeking in (they always deluded themselves they could despite not winning there for 20 years). Why would anyone vote Lib Dem? Although there has been some improvement in recent years its not as if the local councillors (ever since Moore retired) have covered themselves in glory.
Am going to offer odds on Libs actually finishing third in Mancroft, Wensum and Nelson. Any takers?
I agree about Thorpe Hamlet being a source of real out-and-out Liberals, and this is especially high in the Ketts Hill and Wolfe Road areas. Don't forget TH was the LibDems first ward in Norwich, winning it from Labour in the 1980s. I think Labour became disillusional about winning it when we failed to take them to tak under old boundaries. The new boundaries means one day we'll give them a fight for the seat. As for the sitting Councillors, all three strick me as pretty middle-of-the-road - nothing special.
Odds on the LibDems being third? No I don't think so - Labour will stand by and watch the LibDems win Wensum and oust AAD (if he choses to stand again) and so the LibDems will claim 2nd. Only if Labour fight will the LibDems be faced with third, but that won't be the case in either Nelson or Mancroft. I think they'll let the Greens do their dirty work. However, I think I'm right in saying that Labour will one day need Mancroft to win an overall majority.
Labour have their ears pricked up by winning in Mancroft and Wensum in the county elections. Will be interesting to see who the candidates are for 2006 - this will be the best guide to how seriously they are up for the fight. Am not sure of the state of the Mancroft Labour branch - it had a reputation for being somewhat eccentric and it wouldn't surprise me if a number of them have actually thrown in their lot with the Greens. This is particularly as Sue Curran is a former comrade. But you are right, Labour need this seat for any hope of a majority (as indeed do the libs)
Wensum couldn't really be classed as an natural Green territory - there is a good sleeping Labour majority on the estates. Liberal strength lies very much on the borders, over Hellesdon bridge. The previous Green advantage was having an good activist in the ward but he has since moved on and out of the party. If Labour were to offer a local candidate who worked the seat they could win the day.
Nelson is me playaing devils advocate - it was long a bit of a jewel in the Liberals crown and was a classic marginal. Odd really because for years it was a solid Tory seat, drifting to Labour before the Libs slowly built up. This seat is the test to see if the Libs really can self destruct. There has always been a fairly strong Labour branch which hasn't ever completely given up.
As for safe seats, well Labour can only confidently state that they will win one seat next year. They have will of course hope to also hold the Tory target seats, Mile X and gain in Lakenham and University. They should of course should Sewell easily but won it with a very low percentatge vote in 2004 andits interesting to see Jack Burton now backing the Over the Water brigade in the local press.
Come May I might have to blag my way into St Andrews hall for election night (again)
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